The tariff measures announced by US President Donald Trump are expected to have a limited effect on the Gulf region after his threat to introduce taxes of up to 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada by February 1, according to analysts.
There is still a lot of policy uncertainty as Mr Trump takes office. However, the Gulf doesn’t seem to be an area yet affected, according to Scott Livermore, Oxford Economics' chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa.
“A handful of Middle Eastern countries, including Bahrain and Oman, benefit from comprehensive free trade agreements with the US and most countries run a trade deficit with the US,” he said.
“Nevertheless, President Trump’s proposed tariff plans are certain to reverberate through global supply chains and demand. The GCC stands to lose in a less globalised world as the set of trade opportunities and partners shrinks, also potentially discouraging foreign direct investment. Country growth impact across the region will echo overall export exposure.”
Mr Trump said he planned to enact tariffs of as much as 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada by February 1, after he claimed that the two countries are allowing the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs into the US.
Mr Trump also indicated he was still considering a universal tariff on all imports to the US, but said he was “not ready for that yet”.
“You’d put a universal tariff on anybody doing business in the US, because they’re coming in and they’re stealing our wealth,” he said, adding that the introduction of such a tariff could be “rapid”.
In a post on Truth Social in November, Mr Trump warned he’d impose 25 per cent tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports as “one of my many first executive orders” and said it “will remain in effect until such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country”.
Mr Livermore said that in the BRICs bloc, future tariffs could be imposed on China, which may offer opportunities for some countries. However, most Middle Eastern economies are unlikely to draw in manufacturers relocating from China given their small populations and high wages, he said.
Egypt and Turkey could bring in some due to their proximity to Europe. However, Egypt suffers from poor infrastructure and a high administrative burden, while Turkey would be constrained by a recent decline in competitiveness, Mr Livermore said.
The GCC stands to lose in a less globalised world as the set of trade opportunities and partners shrinks
Scott Livermore,
Oxford Economics' chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said the main effect from any potential US tariffs on the region will probably be indirect, through their impact on global growth and energy demand.
“Tariffs on China will be particularly critical given its importance as an energy importer, while the weak demand backdrop in the eurozone would see further headwinds. Reduced global trade would also impact regional logistics activity,” she said.
“Nevertheless, we see the UAE’s global trade and economic integration continuing to rise and boosting its position as a trade and logistics hub, alongside attracting FDI.”
Another effect on the region will be through monetary policy, with higher import tariffs, tighter immigration policies and expansionary fiscal policies adding upside risks to the inflation outlook in the US, according to Ms Malik.
This will limit the pace of rate cuts by the Fed and thus the Gulf states – which mainly mirror US monetary policy moves, while the strong USD outlook will affect the external competitiveness of non-oil exports, she said.
“We remain positive on the region, particularly the UAE, given the trade and wider reforms. Greater investment activity and ongoing population growth are supportive of the outlook,” she added.
PSL FINAL
Multan Sultans v Peshawar Zalmi
8pm, Thursday
Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Cricket World Cup League 2 Fixtures
Saturday March 5, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy (all matches start at 9.30am)
Sunday March 6, Oman v Namibia, ICC Academy
Tuesday March 8, UAE v Namibia, ICC Academy
Wednesday March 9, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy
Friday March 11, Oman v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Saturday March 12, UAE v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri, Muhammad Waseem, CP Rizwan, Vriitya Aravind, Asif Khan, Basil Hameed, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Karthik Meiyappan, Akif Raja, Rahul Bhatia
Yuki Means Happiness
Alison Jean Lester
John Murray
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
More on Quran memorisation:
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
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The years Ramadan fell in May
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Getting there
The flights
Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.
The stay
Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net
Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama
Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Penguin
Starring: Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, Rhenzy Feliz
Creator: Lauren LeFranc
Rating: 4/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
