Iraq is running out of time. The most serious challenge facing the country is the rapid growth in the number of people seeking employment. Every year about a million Iraqis become old enough to work.
Even after adjusting for retirement and the very low labour force participation rate of women, the country must create about 350,000 new jobs every year to prevent a rapid growth in the number of unemployed and underemployed.
From the 1980s to 2014, Iraq’s government used oil export earnings to create enough government jobs to keep unemployment from rising. This has resulted in a bloated, inefficient bureaucracy that employs almost 40 per cent of the labour force.
However, the weakening of Opec, Russia’s need for increased energy exports to finance its war economy and US president-elect Donald Trump’s intention to rapidly increase oil production are all likely to bring a fall in oil prices. The Iraqi government will no longer be able to act as the “employer of first resort”.
Therefore, unless there is a substantial increase in the private sector employment, Iraq faces significantly higher unemployment and underemployment – especially among young men. Not only would this be a waste of economic potential, but rising unemployment and underemployment could be politically destabilising.
What regulatory changes and what public services are necessary to create a private sector that creates productive well-paid jobs? Good policy is based on good data. The 2024 World Bank report, Iraq: Business Ready, provides a rich trove of data on three aspects of 10 key sectors of the economy.
However, it is not a cookbook. Many of the categories and subcategories of data are non-intuitive compared to the now-discontinued World Bank Ease of Doing Business report. And the 60-page Iraq: Business Ready report has two serious gaps that reduce its applicability to Iraq.
It doesn’t discuss corruption and it does not attempt to measure or collect data from informal firms including self-employed and household businesses. Since an estimated two thirds of Iraq’s private sector employment is informal, this is a serious omission.
According to the World Bank, Iraq’s current private sector business environment is poor. Among the 50 countries part of the Business Ready reports, 16 – including Iraq – are upper-middle income countries and 22 are at lower levels of economic development. Averaged across all 10 topics and three aspects – called pillars in the report – Iraq ranks last among the upper-middle income countries and 45th overall.
Regulations for private sector firms are often unnecessarily complex but the major failing is a lack of public services that make it difficult to comply with regulations. The areas where Iraq has the lowest scores are taxation, market competition and business insolvency. For these topics, Iraq ranks 49th out of 50 countries.
The Iraq Britain Business Council autumn conference in Dubai on December 12 and 13 will feature a discussion of the recent IBBC report Is Iraq Business Ready? This report goes into detail about the World Bank’s Iraq: Business Ready report and makes seven recommendations for improving the private sector to encourage job creation. The most important recommendations concern reducing corruption and simplifying regulation.
While Iraq continues to pursue a serious anti-corruption effort, the results over the past decade have been limited. One option to increase the chances of victory is to improve governance by moving most government procurement online. This could speed up the process, increase the number of bids from smaller firms and lead to lower prices.
The expansion and formalisation of existing informal firms, which is necessary for a substantial increase in private sector employment, will also require reductions in the complexity and high cost of conforming to the current web of business regulations.
An example of an unnecessary barrier to registering a business is the requirement in Iraq for paid-in capital. As a guarantee for creditors, such capital requirements have generally failed. And the World Bank research has shown that even minimal paid-in capital reduces business start-ups. As a result, 120 countries, including a dozen in the Mena region, do not require any paid-in capital.
Improvement in these areas and the others identified in Iraq: Business Ready will require both focus and the expenditure of political capital. But the cost of failure is high. Continued dependency on oil export funded government employment will become more difficult over the next decade resulting in increased unemployment and underemployment, especially among young men. This result is not only economically inefficient but could also be socially and politically destabilising.
Frank R Gunter is a professor of Economics at Lehigh University, a member of the Iraq Britain Business Council, and the author of “The Political Economy of Iraq: Restoring Balance in a Post-Conflict Society”
MANDOOB
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
Company%20Profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Cologne v Hoffenheim (11.30pm)
Saturday
Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig (6.30pm)
Schalke v Fortuna Dusseldof (6.30pm)
Mainz v Union Berlin (6.30pm)
Paderborn v Augsburg (6.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (9.30pm)
Sunday
Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen (4.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
SC Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt (9on)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Wydad 2 Urawa 3
Wydad Nahiri 21’, Hajhouj 90'
Urawa Antonio 18’, 60’, Kashiwagi 26’
UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
Results
2pm Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 1,800m
Winner AF Al Baher, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner Alla Mahlak, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
3pm Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner Davy Lamp, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly.
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 1,400m
Winner Ode To Autumn, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
4pm Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner Arch Gold, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
4.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,800m
Winner Meqdam, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
5pm Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner Native Appeal, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
5.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner Amani Pico, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SupplyVan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2029%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MRO%20and%20e-commerce%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Upcoming games
SUNDAY
Brighton and Hove Albion v Southampton (5.30pm)
Leicester City v Everton (8pm)
MONDAY
Burnley v Newcastle United (midnight)
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D5pm%3A%20Deerfields%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Taajer%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%20(jockey)%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Ketbi%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20The%20Galleria%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Zafaranah%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Musabah%20Al%20Muhairi%0D%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Ifahat%20Du%20Loup%2C%20Abdul%20Aziz%20Al%20Balushi%2C%20Sulaiman%20Al%20Ghunaimi%0D%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Mazyad%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Majalis%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Dalma%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Bassam%20Al%20Wathba%2C%20Bernardi%20Pinheiro%2C%20Majed%20Al%20Jahouri%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20World%20Trade%20Centre%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Fawaareq%2C%20Dane%20O%E2%80%99Neill%2C%20Doug%20Watson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT
Aston Villa 1
Samatta (41')
Manchester City 2
Aguero (20')
Rodri (30')
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
