The trend of globalisation will continue, despite the election of Donald Trump as the next US president, while trade will also keep growing with the Gulf region set to benefit from its safe haven status, according to analysts.
Mr Trump has vowed to impose US tariffs of between 10 per cent to 20 per cent on all imported goods – which has raised fears of a global trade war and supply chain disruptions. There are concerns that it will reignite inflation and lead to stagnant growth.
“US presidents come and go, so I wouldn't see that the whole world is changing. Globalisation is here to stay,” said Dr Frank Jurgen Richter, chairman of think tank Horasis.
“The whole order based on trade, on intellectual property exchange, manufacturing in one place, services on the other side, I don't really think that the tariffs [that Mr Trump plans to impose] will change a lot of things,” he told The National on the sidelines of the Horasis event in Dubai on Tuesday.
I wouldn't underestimate the capacity of mankind to find solutions, even with President Trump in power
Dr Frank Jurgen Richter,
chairman of think tank Horasis
There is a lot of uncertainty in places like Europe, with manufacturers fearing that tariffs might suddenly go up for them, he said. However, in the long run, they will have to revise their strategies and “find solutions that can overcome the situation”, maybe moving some of the manufacturing to the US, or discovering new places for trade, like in Asia or Africa.
“I wouldn't underestimate the capacity of mankind to find solutions, even with President Trump in power.”
The US president-elect has also pledged to impose tariffs of between 60 per cent to 100 per cent on Chinese imports as part of its "America First" trade measures.
But, all of this is “political puffery”, said Mishal Kanoo, chairman of the Kanoo Group, with the impact likely to be felt by American consumers rather than by China.
“I've never seen sanctions benefit or harm one country over the other, but I have seen them harm or benefit societies or populations,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the event.
While China has not recovered back to the double-digit growth rates post Covid, mainly due to domestic challenges such as its real estate sector crash, the country will find alternative markets to deal with the tariffs, said Mr Richter.
“China is also re-adapting its economic policies. In the past, it was just enough to put money into infrastructure. I think this time is over, and also the era of cheap manufacturing. Now, this cheap manufacturing is moving to places like Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, and they [China] only keep high value-added services in telecom, in electric cars, in AI – actually China is like a main leader and challenging the US. So, competition is good. It can't be that just one country is leading.”
Supply chains and trade have been heavily disrupted since last year due to geopolitical tensions such as the Red Sea crisis. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking shipping vessels in the Red Sea, a critical conduit for 30 per cent of the world's container traffic, in a show of solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, forcing mariners to take long-haul alternative routes.
“Sometimes the [trade] cycle is going to be positive, [sometimes] it is going to be negative,” Mr Kanoo said.
“The overall picture is, is trade happening globally? The answer is yes. Is it continuing to grow? The answer is yes. Is it costing more? Perhaps, depending on where you are, it costs more. Is it stopping business? No. As more and more people demand more and more, there'll be more demand for growth in freight and global shipping.”
Meanwhile, the Gulf region continues to maintain its safe-haven appeal and is “going to continue to grow as far as the economy is concerned, on the backs of both India and China, because of the demand for energy … [it] should be very good for us”, the Emirati businessman said.
Mr Richter agreed that amid all the uncertainty, “one winner is the Gulf region”, which is attractive for India, China and Russia, among others. “It's like the modern trading place, where everybody is welcome to join hands and to work together,” he said.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
More from Neighbourhood Watch
box
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Letstango.com
Started: June 2013
Founder: Alex Tchablakian
Based: Dubai
Industry: e-commerce
Initial investment: Dh10 million
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 300,000 unique customers every month
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
The years Ramadan fell in May
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
MATCH INFO
What: Brazil v South Korea
When: Tonight, 5.30pm
Where: Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae
The years Ramadan fell in May
More on animal trafficking
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Gertrude Bell's life in focus
A feature film
At one point, two feature films were in the works, but only German director Werner Herzog’s project starring Nicole Kidman would be made. While there were high hopes he would do a worthy job of directing the biopic, when Queen of the Desert arrived in 2015 it was a disappointment. Critics panned the film, in which Herzog largely glossed over Bell’s political work in favour of her ill-fated romances.
A documentary
A project that did do justice to Bell arrived the next year: Sabine Krayenbuhl and Zeva Oelbaum’s Letters from Baghdad: The Extraordinary Life and Times of Gertrude Bell. Drawing on more than 1,000 pieces of archival footage, 1,700 documents and 1,600 letters, the filmmakers painstakingly pieced together a compelling narrative that managed to convey both the depth of Bell’s experience and her tortured love life.
Books, letters and archives
Two biographies have been written about Bell, and both are worth reading: Georgina Howell’s 2006 book Queen of the Desert and Janet Wallach’s 1996 effort Desert Queen. Bell published several books documenting her travels and there are also several volumes of her letters, although they are hard to find in print. Original documents are housed at the Gertrude Bell Archive at the University of Newcastle, which has an online catalogue.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Read more about the coronavirus
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Zayed Sustainability Prize
