The World Bank on Wednesday revised downward its outlook for the Middle East and North Africa's economic growth due to heightened uncertainties caused by the Gaza war, although the Gulf region is on track to expand amid diversification efforts.
The Mena region's gross domestic product is forecast to grow at 2.2 per cent this year, a “modest increase” from last year, but half a percentage lower from the World Bank's April projection of 2.7 per cent.
The increase is driven by the Gulf region, where growth is projected to rise to 1.9 per cent this year from 0.5 per cent in 2023, the lender said in its Mena Economic Update. In the rest of the region, “growth is expected to decelerate”, with oil importers' growth forecast to slow to 2.1 per cent this year from 3.2 per cent in 2023, and for non-GCC oil exporters, to 2.7 per cent from 3.2 per cent.
“The continuing conflict in the Middle East is causing profound suffering,” Ousmane Dione, World Bank vice president for the Middle East and North Africa, said in the report.
While the cost of conflict goes beyond what economic indicators can measure, they “lead to immediate economic losses and can have long-term detrimental effects on development”.
“These outcomes stem from human capital losses, forced displacement, the destruction of physical infrastructure, and various forms of economic disorganisation, including supply chain disruptions,” he said.
While the war has brought Gaza's economy to an almost complete standstill, neighbouring countries also continue to be affected. Jordan recorded a 6.6 per cent decrease in tourist arrivals through August, while there was a 62 per cent drop in Suez Canal revenue in Egypt in the first half of this year.
In Lebanon, escalating tensions are causing “human and economic tolls”, although the full extent of the impact “will be shaped by the future trajectory of the conflict”.
The Washington-based institution also said countries in the region affected by conflict could have seen their income-per-capita on average 45 per cent higher without it, measured seven years after its onset. The group said the loss is “equivalent to 35 years' worth of progress in the region”.
The downgrade also partly reflects the extension of Opec oil production cuts, the World Bank said.
Oil prices are expected to end the year slightly lower at $81 per barrel, compared to $83 per barrel last year. Prices climbed to $88 per barrel in April on escalating tensions in the region before retreating. Brent Crude was trading at $74.36 per barrel at 5.42 Pm UAE time on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate was trading at $70.60.
Meanwhile, inflation in the region is easing overall, reflecting a broader global trend in tamping down prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 2.2 per cent in the Mena this year after a decrease to 3.6 per cent last year.
However, the disinflation trend will not be felt evenly in the region. In GCC economies, whose currencies are pegged to the dollar, inflation is projected to slow to 1.7 per cent. Inflation is elevated among developing oil exporters at 4 per cent and oil importers at 5 per cent.
'Significant untapped potential'
The World Bank also noted key areas of opportunity for the region, including closing the gender gap.
At 19 per cent, the rate of female labour force participation in the region is the lowest in the world. Closing the gender gap would result in a 51 per cent increase in per capita income on average in the region, it said.
“Despite the region's current challenges, there is significant untapped potential” in the region, the institution said.
The World Bank also called for other reforms including transforming the role and size of the state, promoting innovation and better allocating talent in the labour market.
Mobilising talent towards the private sector would see aggregate productivity gains to increase by 45 per cent, it said.
“Transforming the role of the state would lead to substantial gains in productivity,” said Roberta Gatti, World Bank chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa.
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The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
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The five pillars of Islam
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
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Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
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The years Ramadan fell in May
THE BIO
BIO:
Born in RAK on December 9, 1983
Lives in Abu Dhabi with her family
She graduated from Emirates University in 2007 with a BA in architectural engineering
Her motto in life is her grandmother’s saying “That who created you will not have you get lost”
Her ambition is to spread UAE’s culture of love and acceptance through serving coffee, the country’s traditional coffee in particular.
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
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4. Shahada
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Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
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Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
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The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
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- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
