In today’s heated geopolitical climate, China rarely gets the benefit of the doubt in western capitals. The country's refusal to follow western-style economic stimulus, like government handouts during the Covid-19 pandemic, has drawn criticism.
This year, 17 nations and the EU have restricted or investigated Chinese imports, concerned that Beijing is dumping products to escape its economic slump. The New York Times warns that trade tensions are “near boiling point”, while The Wall Street Journal suggests China risks causing a new “trade war”. But are these fears really justified?
To counter a property market crash, Beijing has injected money into its struggling manufacturing sector, leading to excess production being exported – a move critics say threatens jobs abroad.
But does trade data back these claims? The picture is nuanced.
According to Trade Data Monitor (TDM), Chinese exports rose 7 per cent in the first seven months of this year compared to 2023, with even faster growth in key markets like the EU (8.4 per cent), the US (8.2 per cent), South-east Asia (12.5 per cent) and Latin America (14 per cent).
Chinese exports of steel surged nearly 22 per cent, with major growth in appliances, vehicles and ships. Most of these exports were sold at discounted prices, making it harder for foreign companies to compete.
However, exports only tell half the story. Chinese imports also increased by 7.2 per cent in the same period, with significant growth in imports from the US (23.7 per cent), South Korea (20.9 per cent) and the UK (19.7 per cent), reported TDM.
This suggests China’s trade practices are more balanced than some critics claim.
While Chinese exports have surged, imports from major economies have also grown, benefitting foreign suppliers. This does not support the idea that China is engaging in mercantilism – exporting more while importing less.
Interestingly, while China’s export growth concerns are louder than ever, they would have made more sense from 2021 to 2023, when Chinese exports rose sharply, and imports stagnated.
Western media’s alarmist tone focuses on China’s growing trade surplus, but this year’s data reveals that many foreign companies have made gains in China. Critics may be cherry-picking facts to fit their narrative.
China’s trade competition with East Asian countries is another key factor.
After China’s export surge during Covid-19, East Asia gained market share, partly due to western efforts to reduce reliance on China. In response, Chinese companies lowered prices to regain market share in 2023. This price competition makes China’s export performance less unique compared to its East Asian rivals.
During the pandemic, Chinese export prices rose 25 per cent, which competitors in East Asia essentially matched. These higher prices made East Asian exporters vulnerable to China’s subsequent price cuts.
Despite recent discounts, Chinese export prices are still 5 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels – contrary to claims by US President Joe Biden’s administration.
This makes it hard to argue that China is dumping goods at artificially low prices. More “de-risking” from China – shifting supply chains elsewhere – would have happened if East Asian competitors had not raised their prices. China’s lower prices make it harder for Western buyers to move away from Chinese sourcing, despite geopolitical risks.
Even with criticism of China’s exports, western governments have relied on familiar protectionist measures. Between 2015 and 2017, during a brief surge in Chinese exports, 11.2 per cent of Chinese goods faced import restrictions. Since 2022, 11.2 per cent of Chinese exports have again been targeted, with that figure likely rising by the end of 2024, according to Switzerland-based research institute, Global Trade Alert.
So, over 88 per cent of Chinese exports have not faced new trade restrictions in the past three years. This suggests that the criticism of Chinese trade practices may be louder than the actual impact. While future disruptions are possible, widespread curbs have not materialised.
Executives, investors and analysts would be wise to look beyond the critical rhetoric on China’s crisis response. Chinese companies have responded to calls for reduced sourcing by offering lower export prices, which may outweigh the trade war risks for foreign buyers.
This has made sourcing patterns more resistant to change than Western governments would prefer, with fewer companies likely to significantly cut or abandon sourcing from China.
The limited protectionist response to China's export growth may lead executives to downplay the risk of a trade war, though the US election could change that. If the risk stays low, incentives to shift production from China will also decrease.
Additionally, China’s import growth this year is benefitting some foreign suppliers, including western companies.
The bottom line: executives and investors should look beyond alarmist headlines.
Simon J. Evenett is the professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD Business School and co-chairman of the World Economic Forum Trade & Investment Council
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Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
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Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
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Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
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Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
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Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
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How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
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• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
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What%20is%20cystic%20fibrosis%3F
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ECystic%20fibrosis%20is%20a%20genetic%20disorder%20that%20affects%20the%20lungs%2C%20pancreas%20and%20other%20organs.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIt%20causes%20the%20production%20of%20thick%2C%20sticky%20mucus%20that%20can%20clog%20the%20airways%20and%20lead%20to%20severe%20respiratory%20and%20digestive%20problems.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPatients%20with%20the%20condition%20are%20prone%20to%20lung%20infections%20and%20often%20suffer%20from%20chronic%20coughing%2C%20wheezing%20and%20shortness%20of%20breath.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ELife%20expectancy%20for%20sufferers%20of%20cystic%20fibrosis%20is%20now%20around%2050%20years.%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
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On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
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Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
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The years Ramadan fell in May
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The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
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