Jerome Powell has faced relentless criticism from Donald Trump for the Fed's rapid and substantial interest rate rises. Reuters
Jerome Powell has faced relentless criticism from Donald Trump for the Fed's rapid and substantial interest rate rises. Reuters
Jerome Powell has faced relentless criticism from Donald Trump for the Fed's rapid and substantial interest rate rises. Reuters
Jerome Powell has faced relentless criticism from Donald Trump for the Fed's rapid and substantial interest rate rises. Reuters

Fed's likely interest rate cut collides with 2024 US election


Kyle Fitzgerald
  • English
  • Arabic

The final phase in Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's inflation battle is set to collide with another obstacle – the 2024 presidential election.

This sits ahead of a tipping point expected on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will announce whether it will cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020.

Interest rates are already a partisan issue going into November, where the economy and inflation are seen as the big issue for voters. Republican politicians warn that cutting rates would harm the Federal Reserve's credibility. Democrats have called on the Fed to cut rates for months.

Mr Powell has paid those directions little notice, instead using public appearances to repeat his data-driven narrative.

Today, the data points towards a rate cut. The Fed's preferred inflation measure is at 2.5 per cent and seen as on a sustainable path back to the Fed's 2 per cent goal. The labour market is softening, with the unemployment rate now at 4.2 per cent.

Now, Mr Powell aims to stick to the landing.

Doing so will require a careful calibration of interest rate cuts to not send the economy tipping into a recession.

But looming behind the 2024 election is the potential return to office for Donald Trump, whose recent comments threaten to undermine the Fed's independence.

“I feel the president should have at least [a] say in” monetary policy decisions, Mr Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, about a month ago.

“I think that in my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman,” said the former president on August 8.

Should he return to office, Mr Trump could dismantle the guardrails that have protected the Fed for decades, said David Wilcox, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and director of US economic research at Bloomberg Economics.

“The potential for institutional damage is quite great, and the task of repairing any damage along those lines would be the work of many, many years, if not decades,” Mr Wilcox told The National.

A near-sacred principle

The consensus among economists is clear – politicians should not interfere with central banks.

Mainstream economists argue independent central banks are best equipped to tackle inflation because of their long-term view, as opposed to an electoral focus. Independent central banks also help to anchor inflation expectations, which is critical to price stability.

“The record is pretty clear that that's a good, intentional arrangement that serves the public well,” Mr Powell told politicians in July.

While the Fed is accountable to Congress, it enjoys broad independence to implement monetary policy decisions, and for the most part, without political pressure. This level of independence helps to secure the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

The Fed's independence is “critical”, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist Oxford Economics.

"A tremendous amount of research has shown that countries with independent central banks have more economic stability," he said.

"When inflation is typically lower, the labour markets perform better. So shielding ... any central bank from political pressure is typically in the best interest of the economy."

Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has said she would never interfere with the Fed's independence.

When politics interfere

The Fed has not always taken the long-term view.

This year's electoral cycle conjures memories of former Fed chairman Arthur Burns, who caved in under pressure by president Richard Nixon to cut rates in 1970 even when the economy showed signs of overheating. Mr Nixon won re-election two years later, but the resulting decades were defined by a period of stagflation.

One of the more recent examples comes from Turkey, whose inflation rate is currently 51.97 per cent as of late August, according to New York-based economic statistics monitor Trading Economics.

Under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish central bank began cutting rates in 2021 even during a time of soaring inflation to encourage more capital investment. The gambit failed and the inflation rate climbed to a peak of 85 per cent.

Most recently, central banks in Brazil and Thailand have come under pressure from their governments, although they have so far fended off the pressure.

“The track record, both in the United States and around the globe, is pretty clear that when political figures become involved in day-to-day monetary policy decision making, the economic performance of that country tends to deteriorate,” Mr Wilcox said.

Trump's shadow looms

A report from The Wall Street Journal this year brought new concern to the future of the Fed's independence. The report, which included proposals that Mr Trump be consulted on monetary policy decisions as president, was met with alarm by economists.

“This is the bad idea of all bad ideas,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US, wrote in a social media post at the time.

Mr Trump's campaign distanced itself from the report at the time, but the Republican nominee did little to downplay concerns last month.

With Mr Powell's term set to expire in 2026, the next president will have the opportunity to nominate the next Fed chairman. Mr Trump nominated Mr Powell to the position in 2018 to succeed Janet Yellen, although clashed with his appointee and went so far as to question if the Fed chairman was an enemy to the US in 2019.

Mr Trump told Bloomberg in July he would not try to fire Mr Powell, whose term as Fed chairman expires in 2026 and as governor in 2028, if he returns to the Oval Office. No Fed chairman or woman has been fired, and it is uncertain if the president has the authority to do so.

Mr Powell has said he intends to serve his full term as chairman.

How to report a beggar

Abu Dhabi – Call 999 or 8002626 (Aman Service)

Dubai – Call 800243

Sharjah – Call 065632222

Ras Al Khaimah - Call 072053372

Ajman – Call 067401616

Umm Al Quwain – Call 999

Fujairah - Call 092051100 or 092224411

Reputation

Taylor Swift

(Big Machine Records)

The alternatives

• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.

• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.

• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.

2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.

• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases -  but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.

The biog

Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages

Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”  

Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”

Favourite film:  “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”

Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”

Syria squad

Goalkeepers: Ibrahim Alma, Mahmoud Al Youssef, Ahmad Madania.
Defenders: Ahmad Al Salih, Moayad Ajan, Jehad Al Baour, Omar Midani, Amro Jenyat, Hussein Jwayed, Nadim Sabagh, Abdul Malek Anezan.
Midfielders: Mahmoud Al Mawas, Mohammed Osman, Osama Omari, Tamer Haj Mohamad, Ahmad Ashkar, Youssef Kalfa, Zaher Midani, Khaled Al Mobayed, Fahd Youssef.
Forwards: Omar Khribin, Omar Al Somah, Mardik Mardikian.

Sukuk

An Islamic bond structured in a way to generate returns without violating Sharia strictures on prohibition of interest.

COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Envision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarthik%20Mahadevan%20and%20Karthik%20Kannan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Netherlands%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Technology%2FAssistive%20Technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204impact%2C%20ABN%20Amro%2C%20Impact%20Ventures%20and%20group%20of%20angels%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bawaal%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nitesh%20Tiwari%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Varun%20Dhawan%2C%20Janhvi%20Kapoor%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
Washmen Profile

Date Started: May 2015

Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Laundry

Employees: 170

Funding: about $8m

Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures

WOMAN AND CHILD

Director: Saeed Roustaee

Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi

Rating: 4/5

The Pope's itinerary

Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport


Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial


Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport

 

 

Law%2041.9.4%20of%20men%E2%80%99s%20T20I%20playing%20conditions
%3Cp%3EThe%20fielding%20side%20shall%20be%20ready%20to%20start%20each%20over%20within%2060%20seconds%20of%20the%20previous%20over%20being%20completed.%0D%3Cbr%3EAn%20electronic%20clock%20will%20be%20displayed%20at%20the%20ground%20that%20counts%20down%20seconds%20from%2060%20to%20zero.%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20clock%20is%20not%20required%20or%2C%20if%20already%20started%2C%20can%20be%20cancelled%20if%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09A%20new%20batter%20comes%20to%20the%20wicket%20between%20overs.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09An%20official%20drinks%20interval%20has%20been%20called.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20umpires%20have%20approved%20the%20on%20field%20treatment%20of%20an%20injury%20to%20a%20batter%20or%20fielder.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20time%20lost%20is%20for%20any%20circumstances%20beyond%20the%20control%20of%20the%20fielding%20side.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20third%20umpire%20starts%20the%20clock%20either%20when%20the%20ball%20has%20become%20dead%20at%20the%20end%20of%20the%20previous%20over%2C%20or%20a%20review%20has%20been%20completed.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20team%20gets%20two%20warnings%20if%20they%20are%20not%20ready%20to%20start%20overs%20after%20the%20clock%20reaches%20zero.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09On%20the%20third%20and%20any%20subsequent%20occasion%20in%20an%20innings%2C%20the%20bowler%E2%80%99s%20end%20umpire%20awards%20five%20runs.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERooh%20Afza%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20contains%20414%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETang%20orange%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECarob%20beverage%20mix%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20about%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQamar%20Al%20Din%20apricot%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20saving%20contains%2061%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVimto%20fruit%20squash%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%2030%20calories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE%C2%A0SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%204-cylinder%202.5-litre%20%2F%202-litre%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20188hp%20%2F%20248hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20244Nm%20%2F%20370Nm%0D%3Cbr%3ETransmission%3A%207-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20now%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh110%2C000%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GCC-UK%20Growth
%3Cp%3EAn%20FTA%20with%20the%20GCC%20would%20be%20very%20significant%20for%20the%20UK.%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20My%20Department%20has%20forecast%20that%20it%20could%20generate%20an%20additional%20%C2%A31.6%20billion%20a%20year%20for%20our%20economy.%3Cbr%3EWith%20consumer%20demand%20across%20the%20GCC%20predicted%20to%20increase%20to%20%C2%A3800%20billion%20by%202035%20this%20deal%20could%20act%20as%20a%20launchpad%20from%20which%20our%20firms%20can%20boost%20their%20market%20share.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
The candidates

Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive

Ali Azeem, business leader

Tony Booth, professor of education

Lord Browne, former BP chief executive

Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist

Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist

Dr Mark Mann, scientist

Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner

Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister

Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster

 

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In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter

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The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm

Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm

Transmission: 6-speed auto

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On sale: now

Updated: September 16, 2024, 3:36 PM`