Libya is at a pivotal moment as the fight for control of its central bank intensifies. This conflict extends beyond local concerns, with strong ramifications for the country’s economic stability, political future and appeal to international investors.
As the struggle for the central bank escalates, it not only sharpens Libya’s political divisions but also threatens the country’s fragile efforts at reconciliation and economic recovery.
Since the fall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, Libya has been deeply fragmented, with competing administrations in the east and west battling for control of key state institutions.
The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) has become a critical focal point in this struggle due to its crucial role in managing the nation’s oil revenue and foreign reserves. Controlling the CBL is effectively controlling Libya’s economic lifeblood, making it a strategic asset in the broader power struggle.
In recent months, both factions have increased their efforts to dominate the CBL through strategic appointments and administrative changes. These actions have heightened tensions and further complicated international efforts to foster unity and organise national elections.
The continuing conflict over the CBL is a significant barrier to political reconciliation, as the battle for financial resources intensifies mistrust, making collaborative governance even more difficult to achieve.
The economic consequences of this deadlock are evident.
Delays in paying public sector salaries have eroded both morale and productivity, while interruptions in essential public services are disrupting everyday life and economic activities.
Additionally, the continuing economic instability has worsened the humanitarian crisis, with the poverty rate climbing and access to basic needs becoming limited.
For global investors, Libya’s unstable economic environment poses serious risks, and thus, they must approach the country with a high degree of caution, fully aware of the volatile and uncertain environment.
The absence of financial stability and clear governance structures discourages the foreign investment crucial for the country’s economic diversification and growth.
As the country seeks a path to stability, strategic investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure, financial services and governance could potentially yield significant returns, especially through public-private partnerships.
However, these opportunities are fraught with substantial risks. The persistent power struggle could lead to sudden policy changes and regulatory uncertainty, making the investment climate highly unpredictable.
Additionally, fluctuations in oil revenue and issues with financial management further complicate the market, posing significant challenges to investment security and profitability.
The conflict over Libya’s central bank extends beyond its borders, carrying significant geopolitical consequences.
The country’s strategic position in North Africa, its abundant oil reserves and its influence on regional stability mean that the outcome of this struggle is of great interest to global powers and investors.
With the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, Libya plays a crucial role in the global energy market. Control of the central bank, which oversees the distribution of oil revenue, directly impacts the country’s ability to sustain and increase oil production. Any disruption or change in control could lead to fluctuations in global oil prices, affecting both producers and consumers worldwide.
Global powers, including the US, Russia and European countries, have taken an active interest in Libya’s political situation. The US has long been interested in stabilising Libya as part of its broader Middle East and North Africa strategy, with American businesses, particularly in the oil and gas sector, standing to benefit.
Russia, motivated by both economic and geopolitical factors, is seeking to expand its influence in the Mediterranean and secure lucrative arms and energy deals.
The EU views a unified and stable Libya as crucial for controlling migration flows across the Mediterranean and reducing regional security threats.
The instability in Libya’s financial governance also undermines the country’s ability to participate in international trade, attract foreign direct investment, and secure necessary international loans and aid.
This uncertainty directly affects global businesses with ties to Libya, creating challenges such as payment delays, difficulties in contract enforcement and disruptions in supply chains.
While these issues present serious risks, they also create specific opportunities for companies that can provide essential services like risk management, insurance and logistical support to help stabilise business operations in the region.
However, any potential opportunities must be weighed against the substantial risks inherent in operating in such a volatile environment.
The struggle for control over Libya’s central bank encapsulates the broader issues of political fragmentation, economic instability and competition for resources that the country faces.
While navigating the Libyan market requires managing complex risks, the rewards are far from guaranteed. The decisions made by Libya’s leaders and the international community at this critical juncture will shape the country’s future and its role in the global economy.
Investors who grasp the strategic significance of this conflict and approach it with a clear-eyed understanding of the risks involved may find opportunities, but success will depend on careful, informed engagement rather than optimism alone.
Falah Mousa is a Brussels-based government affairs specialist and researcher
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
If you go
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700.
The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers.
The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.
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MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
GYAN’S ASIAN OUTPUT
2011-2015: Al Ain – 123 apps, 128 goals
2015-2017: Shanghai SIPG – 20 apps, 7 goals
2016-2017: Al Ahli (loan) – 25 apps, 11 goals
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