A study has cast doubt on Egypt's ability to implement the reforms necessary for it to change course on decades of economic struggles.
The policy brief, published by the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics on Tuesday, says Cairo is unlikely to deviate from its “well-rehearsed playbook” of returning to fixed exchange rates, relying on geopolitical rents and permitting its military to be deeply entrenched in the economy.
“Countries reform one day after and that means especially the elites of that country feel that their political survival depends on changing course,” Adnan Mazarei, one of brief's co-authors, told The National.
“At the moment … the leads in the army in Egypt think they can handle the political consequences of the current difficulties."
Egypt's economy has faced numerous challenges in recent years, including high debt levels, inflation and foreign exchange shortages.
Effects from wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic, have only added to these woes.
To help boost Egypt's economy, the International Monetary Fund in March approved an $8 billion loan package, adding $5 billion to a $3 billion agreement signed in 2022.
The injection helped Egypt to avoid a full-blown crisis, which the authors say could be attributed to its “long-standing insistence on maintaining an overvalued currency through fixed exchange rates”.
“In this as in previous instances, international assistance has been provided at least in part because of Egypt’s critical importance for stability in the Middle East,” said the brief, titled Egypt's 2023-24 Economic Crisis: Will this Time be Different?
As part of the agreement, Egypt raised its interest rates and began floating its currency against the US dollar.
While the policy brief acknowledges action Cairo has taken, it questions if the government is committed to implementing deeper reforms.
It offered two potential scenarios for Egypt.
In the first, it calls on Cairo to implement sustained reforms that include reducing the military's economic dominance, allowing for private sector growth and fair competition, as well as reconsidering the reliance on geopolitical rents.
It also calls on Egypt to abandon the fixed exchange rate.
"Of course, the transition won’t be easy. Inflationary pressures, especially on food prices, are a significant concern," the brief says.
"But with targeted social safety nets, the government can protect the most vulnerable while allowing the economy to breathe."
The other, more likely scenario is one where Egypt returns to fixed exchange rates and other measures it has used in the past.
Elites' interests in the status quo, among other factors, mean it is unlikely that sustained consequential changes are pushed through.
“We are pessimistic,” Mr Mazarei said.
He said it was unclear if the programme could break this cycle.
"Trouble comes, they reach an agreement with the IMF, often involving ... some monetary tightening and some exchange rate depreciation, or sometimes even actual floating at the exchange rate," Mr Mazarei said.
"But then when things stabilise, they go back to their own ways in terms of policies, but they also do not do the deep reforms that are needed."
At the conclusion of its third review of the extended loan programme with Egypt last week, the IMF said some of Cairo's efforts to restore price stability have brought positive results.
But there was still need for more reforms, the IMF said.
It said Egypt must accelerate its divestment programme, pursue reforms to set up new firms, expedite trade facilitation practices and create a “level playing field” that would avoid unfair competitive practices by state-owned firms.
The IMF also repeated the importance of the flexible exchange rate regime.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Joy%20Ride%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adele%20Lim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAshley%20Park%2C%20Sherry%20Cola%2C%20Stephanie%20Hsu%2C%20Sabrina%20Wu%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Things Heard & Seen
Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, James Norton
2/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
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Price: From Dh149,900
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Forced%20Deportations
%3Cp%3EWhile%20the%20Lebanese%20government%20has%20deported%20a%20number%20of%20refugees%20back%20to%20Syria%20since%202011%2C%20the%20latest%20round%20is%20the%20first%20en-mass%20campaign%20of%20its%20kind%2C%20say%20the%20Access%20Center%20for%20Human%20Rights%2C%20a%20non-governmental%20organization%20which%20monitors%20the%20conditions%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20in%20Lebanon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%9CIn%20the%20past%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20General%20Security%20was%20responsible%20for%20the%20forced%20deportation%20operations%20of%20refugees%2C%20after%20forcing%20them%20to%20sign%20papers%20stating%20that%20they%20wished%20to%20return%20to%20Syria%20of%20their%20own%20free%20will.%20Now%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20army%2C%20specifically%20military%20intelligence%2C%20is%20responsible%20for%20the%20security%20operation%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Mohammad%20Hasan%2C%20head%20of%20ACHR.%3Cbr%3EIn%20just%20the%20first%20four%20months%20of%202023%20the%20number%20of%20forced%20deportations%20is%20nearly%20double%20that%20of%20the%20entirety%20of%202022.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ESince%20the%20beginning%20of%202023%2C%20ACHR%20has%20reported%20407%20forced%20deportations%20%E2%80%93%20200%20of%20which%20occurred%20in%20April%20alone.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20comparison%2C%20just%20154%20people%20were%20forcfully%20deported%20in%202022.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Violence%20
%3Cp%3EInstances%20of%20violence%20against%20Syrian%20refugees%20are%20not%20uncommon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJust%20last%20month%2C%20security%20camera%20footage%20of%20men%20violently%20attacking%20and%20stabbing%20an%20employee%20at%20a%20mini-market%20went%20viral.%20The%20store%E2%80%99s%20employees%20had%20engaged%20in%20a%20verbal%20altercation%20with%20the%20men%20who%20had%20come%20to%20enforce%20an%20order%20to%20shutter%20shops%2C%20following%20the%20announcement%20of%20a%20municipal%20curfew%20for%20Syrian%20refugees.%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CThey%20thought%20they%20were%20Syrian%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20the%20mayor%20of%20the%20Nahr%20el%20Bared%20municipality%2C%20Charbel%20Bou%20Raad%2C%20of%20the%20attackers.%3Cbr%3EIt%20later%20emerged%20the%20beaten%20employees%20were%20Lebanese.%20But%20the%20video%20was%20an%20exemplary%20instance%20of%20violence%20at%20a%20time%20when%20anti-Syrian%20rhetoric%20is%20particularly%20heated%20as%20Lebanese%20politicians%20call%20for%20the%20return%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20to%20Syria.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
