The International Monetary Fund has cut its expansion forecast for Middle Eastern economies on the back of oil production caps and the Israel-Gaza war.
The world economy, which showed resilience last year, is in a “sticky spot” with the slowing pace of disinflation and prospects of a higher-for-longer interest rates regime looming large, the Washington-based fund said in the latest update of its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.
The IMF has maintained its 2024 global growth projection at 3.2 per cent and expects the world economy to expand at a slightly faster pace of 3.3 per cent in 2025, in line with its forecast released in April.
Though the economic forecast is broadly unchanged for this year and next, “under the hood, however, offsetting growth revisions have shifted the composition”, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.
“Overall, risks to the outlook remain balanced … but some near-term risks have gained prominence.”
Inflation risk
Despite the global success in taming inflation, the IMF said it remains the biggest concern.
Global inflation is broadly on track to slow to 5.9 per cent this year, from 6.7 per cent last year, as projected, but in some advanced economies, especially the US, progress on disinflation has slowed “and risks are to the upside”, the IMF said.
“The momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signalling bumps along the path.”
Further challenges to disinflation could force central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to keep borrowing costs higher for even longer, which would put overall growth at risk, with increased upward pressure on the dollar and harmful spillovers to emerging and developing economies.
“Mounting empirical evidence, including some of our own, points to the importance of global headline inflation shocks – mostly energy and food prices – in driving the inflation surge and subsequent decline across a broad range of countries,” Mr Gourinchas said.
“The good news is that, as headline shocks receded, inflation came down without a recession. The bad news is that energy and food price inflation are now almost back to pre-pandemic levels in many countries, while overall inflation is not.”
Slower Middle East growth
Though inflation remains a concern in some oil-importing economies in the Middle East, the growth prospects are largely dented by the continuing conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Middle East and North African economies face a significant degree of uncertainty this year as the conflict threatens to spill into the broader region.
The IMF, which cut its 2024 Middle East and Central Asia growth forecast in April by 0.6 percentage points to 2.7 per cent, again lowered the projection by 0.4 percentage points to 2.4 per cent expansion this year.
The fund also revised its 2025 economic growth outlook for Mena by 0.4 percentage points to 4 per cent.
Growth forecast in Saudi Arabia, the biggest Arab economy, has also been revised downward by 0.9 percentage points to 1.7 per cent for 2024 and down 1.3 percentage points to 4.7 per cent growth in 2025.
“The adjustment reflects mainly the extension of oil production cuts,” the IMF said.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter of oil, benefitted from the rally in crude prices that have risen about 10 per cent this year on the back of production cuts by the Opec+ group.
Last month, Opec+ agreed to extend output cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day, which were initially planned to end this year, until the end of 2025.
At the same time, the additional 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cuts of eight Opec+ member states were extended by three months until the end of September.
Advanced economies
The IMF’s projection for economic expansion this year is below the historical growth average of the world economy.
The fund said although the first quarter growth surprised on the upside in many countries, downside surprises in Japan and the US were notable.
“In the United States, after a sustained period of strong outperformance, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth reflected moderating consumption and a negative contribution from net trade,” the IMF said.
“In Japan, the negative growth surprise stemmed from temporary supply disruptions linked to the shutdown of a major automobile plant in the first quarter.”
The IMF expects advanced economies to overall expand by 1.7 per cent this year, and 1.8 per cent next, in line with its April forecast.
In the US, projected growth is revised downward to 2.6 per cent for this year, 0.1 percentage point lower than projected in April, reflecting the slower-than-expected start to the year.
Growth in the world’s biggest economy is expected to slow to 1.9 per cent in 2025 as the labour market cools and consumption moderates, with fiscal policy starting to tighten gradually.
In the euro area, activity appears to have bottomed out and the IMF expects a modest pickup of 0.9 per cent this year – an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point – driven by stronger momentum in services and higher-than-expected net exports in the first half of the year.
Growth in the economic bloc is projected to rise to 1.5 per cent in 2025.
Engine of global growth
The fund said Asia’s emerging market economies remain the “main engine for the global economy” this year, as it revised upwards growth projections for China and India that account for almost half of global growth.
The IMF expects emerging and middle-income economies to grow by 4.2 per cent this year and next, up 0.1 percentage point from its April forecast.
China’s economy is slated to grow by 5 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent in 2025, 0.4 percentage point faster than estimates in April.
“In China, resurgent domestic consumption propelled the positive upside in the first quarter, aided by what looked to be a temporary surge in exports belatedly reconnecting with last year’s rise in global demand,” the IMF said.
The fund expects India’s economy to expand by 7 per cent this year, 0.2 percentage points quicker than April estimates. It is set to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2025.
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’
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UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Pickford (Everton), Pope (Burnley), Henderson (Manchester United)
Defenders Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool), Chilwell (Chelsea), Coady (Wolves), Dier (Tottenham), Gomez (Liverpool), James (Chelsea), Keane (Everton), Maguire (Manchester United), Maitland-Niles (Arsenal), Mings (Aston Villa), Saka (Arsenal), Trippier (Atletico Madrid), Walker (Manchester City)
Midfielders: Foden (Manchester City), Henderson (Liverpool), Grealish (Aston Villa), Mount (Chelsea), Rice (West Ham), Ward-Prowse (Southampton), Winks (Tottenham)
Forwards: Abraham (Chelsea), Calvert-Lewin (Everton), Kane (Tottenham), Rashford (Manchester United), Sancho (Borussia Dortmund), Sterling (Manchester City)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
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Key findings
- Over a period of seven years, a team of scientists analysed dietary data from 50,000 North American adults.
- Eating one or two meals a day was associated with a relative decrease in BMI, compared with three meals. Snacks count as a meal. Likewise, participants who ate more than three meals a day experienced an increase in BMI: the more meals a day, the greater the increase.
- People who ate breakfast experienced a relative decrease in their BMI compared with “breakfast-skippers”.
- Those who turned the eating day on its head to make breakfast the biggest meal of the day, did even better.
- But scrapping dinner altogether gave the best results. The study found that the BMI of subjects who had a long overnight fast (of 18 hours or more) decreased when compared even with those who had a medium overnight fast, of between 12 and 17 hours.
SPECS
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Liverpool's all-time goalscorers
Ian Rush 346
Roger Hunt 285
Mohamed Salah 250
Gordon Hodgson 241
Billy Liddell 228
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
THREE
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Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
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Book%20Details
%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EThree%20Centuries%20of%20Travel%20Writing%20by%20Muslim%20Women%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEditors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiobhan%20Lambert-Hurley%2C%20Daniel%20Majchrowicz%2C%20Sunil%20Sharma%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EIndiana%20University%20Press%3B%20532%20pages%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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T20 World Cup Qualifier
Final: Netherlands beat PNG by seven wickets
Qualified teams
1. Netherlands
2. PNG
3. Ireland
4. Namibia
5. Scotland
6. Oman
T20 World Cup 2020, Australia
Group A: Sri Lanka, PNG, Ireland, Oman
Group B: Bangladesh, Netherlands, Namibia, Scotland
'Operation Mincemeat'
Director: John Madden
Cast: Colin Firth, Matthew Macfayden, Kelly Macdonald and Penelope Wilton
Rating: 4/5
Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners
Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)
Squads
Sri Lanka Tharanga (c), Mathews, Dickwella (wk), Gunathilaka, Mendis, Kapugedera, Siriwardana, Pushpakumara, Dananjaya, Sandakan, Perera, Hasaranga, Malinga, Chameera, Fernando.
India Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Pandey, Rahane, Jadhav, Dhoni (wk), Pandya, Axar, Kuldeep, Chahal, Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar, Thakur.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
