Any change in Iran’s economic fortunes is tied to how successful the country’s new reformist president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will be in easing the impact of strangling western sanctions, before getting them eventually lifted, and how quickly he brings rampant inflation under control, analysts said.
Mr Pezeshkian, 69, was elected as Iran’s President after defeating hardline candidate Saeed Jalili in Friday’s run-off vote, with his agenda expected to be a marked shift from that of his predecessor late Ebrahim Raisi, who was a cleric and a former member of the Iranian judiciary.
Reviving the 2015 nuclear accord, which sought to curb Tehran's nuclear activity in return for sanctions relief and pursuing reforms to support economic growth in the country are the top priorities for the heart surgeon-turned-politician who is expected to be sworn in next month.
“A rapid recovery of the Iranian economy is unlikely without resolving the issue of sanctions, which is crucial for any significant improvement in welfare indicators for Iranians,” said Mohammad Farzanegan, professor of Middle East economics at the Centre for Near and Middle Eastern Studies, Philipps-University Marburg in Germany.
“Mr Pezeshkian has expressed his willingness to address the foreign policy challenge with the West over Iran's nuclear programme. A major concern is whether the rest of the government will co-operate with him on this front.”
The president will need the support of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to address the issue of sanctions and revisit Tehran’s stance on relations with the West.
He is expected to face resistance from the conservative political leadership and the country’s military in efforts to normalise foreign policy, Mr Farzanegan said.
The biggest uncertainty on the horizon that could be a determining factor in whether the incoming Iranian president will succeed or not is the US elections in November.
Donald Trump, who broke off the deal during his last presidency, is one of the candidates and is in a close race for the White House with the incumbent Joe Biden.
While the pathway to a potential deal is unclear, it is important to note that the US and Iran continued indirect talks even after the nuclear talks failed last time, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think tank said.
“Iran could make narrow concessions on its nuclear programme, for example by capping enrichment and restoring access for IAEA monitors, in exchange for limited sanctions relief. This approach is most likely to get the blessing of the hardliners who dominate Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” he said.
Iran’s economy has continued to grow in the past few years, with real gross domestic product rising by 3.8 per cent in 2022 and 4.7 per cent last year, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund.
However, the economy “continues to face growth constraints notably related to the economic sanctions, restricted access to external markets and to the latest technology, and much needed foreign investment”, the World Bank said in a report last year.
The country’s real GDP is forecast to slow to 3.3 per cent this year and 3.1 per cent in 2025, according to the IMF.
Over the past four years, the Iranian economy has adjusted to pressure mounted by sanctions and it will continue to grow at a slow pace amid continued headwinds, said Mr Batmanghelidj.
However, the current pace of economic growth is “insufficient to lift the country’s middle and working classes”.
“So, while the economic situation will appear somewhat stable, there will continue to be considerable pressure on the Pezeshkian administration to pursue major … reforms, including sanctions relief, to help ordinary Iranians meet their economic potential.”
Inflation pain
Another crucial area that will require attention from the new president and his team of economic policy advisers is inflation, with consumer prices rising by 45.8 per cent last year.
Inflation is expected to slow this year but will remain at a steep 37.5 per cent this year, according to the IMF.
High consumer price inflation has been a “chronic economic challenge in Iran, with annual inflation rates averaging above 20 per cent in the last four decades”, the World Bank said.
In recent years, the situation has worsened, with a record four-year streak of inflation above 40 per cent that has affected the livelihoods of low-income households.
“The size of the middle class is shrinking under inflationary pressures, which reduces the opportunity costs of conflict and violence, especially given Iran's young demographic structure,” Mr Farzanegan said.
“The primary losers in this scenario are Iranian consumers, while politically connected firms and individuals benefit from the economic rents generated by the distortionary effects of sanctions and government interventions, such as in the currency market.”
During the reformist regime of Mohammad Khatami between 1997-2005, the average annual inflation stood at only 15 per cent, said Dr Mahdi Ghodsi, an economist at The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, adding “it was the era of growth and minimal two-digit inflation”.
The period recorded a high in average annual GDP growth driven by significant increases in investment, household consumption and government expenditure, allowing the economy to employ 5.7 million new people.
“To replicate the economic improvements of the 1997-2005 period and enhance Iran's economy and people's welfare, we should consider implementing similar policies,” Mr Ghodsi said.
According to the World Bank, the main drivers of high inflation are the budget deficit and imbalances in the balance sheets of Iranian banks that are reflected in an inflated monetary aggregate growth rate.
However, the new president is also likely to face resistance in his bid to reshape and overhaul the troubled banking system in the country, Hasnain Malik, head of emerging markets strategy at Tellimer, an investment research firm in Dubai, said.
“Restructuring of legacy bad loans in the banks and encouragement of private sector competition may require a challenge to vested interest, which is well beyond the presidency,” Mr Malik said.
Removal, or at least softening the intensity of sanctions, is also critical in how well Iran will be able to tackle the inflation problem.
While inflation has fallen over the past year, “it may prove difficult for Pezeshkian’s economic team to drive it down further without major improvements in Iran’s trade balance, fiscal position, or access to central bank reserves”, said Mr Batmanghelidj.
“ In each of those areas, sanctions have tied the hands of Iranian policymakers.”
Fight against corruption
Sanctions have been a major driver of higher trade, transactions and production costs in recent years while also contributing to a rise in corruption, according to Mr Farzanegan.
Alex Vatanka, senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute in Washington said Iran needs a different approach to the outside world for its economic revival but before it amends its foreign policy, it needs to tackle corruption.
Before it aims to create investment opportunities for investors, the country needs to “roll back the power of illicit networks that have emerged in the last 20 years or so in the effort to circumvent sanctions as Tehran tried to sell its oil”, said Mr Vatanka.
“Then there are issues of management inside Iran, including the need to fight corruption and nepotism. In short, it’s a tall order and time will show if Pezeshkian can bring the rest of the regime with him as he attempts to go big in changing Iran’s economic realities.”
Mr Pezeshkian's crucial short-term goal “should be to restore macroeconomic stability in Iran through sound monetary and fiscal policies and active, constructive efforts to reduce the intensity of sanctions and ultimately achieve their lifting in the future”, Mr Farzanegan said.
Currency depreciation
A sharp depreciation of the Iranian currency is another challenge facing the new president.
The Iranian rial, which hit a record low of more than 705,000 against the US dollar in April after the country launched a missile strike against Israel, recovered to about 596,000 a dollar after the election results were announced, according to currency trading portal bonbast.com data.
Even with a reformist president in office, Fitch Ratings expected depreciation in the Iranian currency to continue this year “due to heightened geopolitical tensions and investor worries surrounding the US presidential election in November”.
“We expect a more modest depreciation in 2025, with the rial losing 21.3 per cent of its value, compared to 23.1 per cent in 2024,” Fitch said in its latest report on Iranian currency and financial scenario this year and next.
Meanwhile, the financial market in Iran also reacted slightly positively to the new regime, “anticipating better economic conditions due to opening the economy and reducing tensions that have increased due to hardline policies over the past two decades”, Mr Ghodsi said.
Since the public sector accounts for about 70 per cent to 80 per cent of Iran's total GDP, the president plays a crucial role in diversifying the country's resources according to his chosen direction, he said.
If the new president is unable to quickly introduce his election campaign promises to remove western sanctions, comply with FATF standards and regulations, create a better investment environment, improve social policies and lift internet filtering, “market expectations will diverge from reality, leading to increased uncertainty”.
If substantial institutional reforms are carried out, the country can expect average growth rates of about 4 per cent, driven by industrial growth rather than oil exports, Mr Ghodsi said.
“Whether Pezeshkian's policies will lead to an increase in public and private investment, thereby creating jobs and eradicating poverty, or continue the inflationary policies of direct cash handouts initiated during the Ahmadinejad era, remains to be seen in the future.”
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
Visa changes give families fresh hope
Foreign workers can sponsor family members based solely on their income
Male residents employed in the UAE can sponsor immediate family members, such as wife and children, subject to conditions that include a minimum salary of Dh 4,000 or Dh 3,000 plus accommodation.
Attested original marriage certificate, birth certificate of the child, ejari or rental contract, labour contract, salary certificate must be submitted to the government authorised typing centre to complete the sponsorship process
In Abu Dhabi, a woman can sponsor her husband and children if she holds a residence permit stating she is an engineer, teacher, doctor, nurse or any profession related to the medical sector and her monthly salary is at least Dh 10,000 or Dh 8,000 plus accommodation.
In Dubai, if a woman is not employed in the above categories she can get approval to sponsor her family if her monthly salary is more than Dh 10,000 and with a special permission from the Department of Naturalization and Residency Dubai.
To sponsor parents, a worker should earn Dh20,000 or Dh19,000 a month, plus a two-bedroom accommodation
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Expo details
Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia
The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.
It is expected to attract 25 million visits
Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.
More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020
The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area
It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South
1,000 Books to Read Before You Die: A Life-Changing List
James Mustich, Workman
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The studios taking part (so far)
- Punch
- Vogue Fitness
- Sweat
- Bodytree Studio
- The Hot House
- The Room
- Inspire Sports (Ladies Only)
- Cryo
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Mission%3A%20Impossible%20-%20Dead%20Reckoning%20Part%20One
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Christopher%20McQuarrie%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tom%20Cruise%2C%20Hayley%20Atwell%2C%20Pom%20Klementieff%2C%20Simon%20Pegg%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Suarez 27', Vidal 32', Dembele 35', Messi 78')
Sevilla 0
Red cards: Ronald Araujo, Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
Tottenham's 10 biggest transfers (according to transfermarkt.com):
1). Moussa Sissokho - Newcastle United - £30 million (Dh143m): Flop
2). Roberto Soldado - Valencia - £25m: Flop
3). Erik Lamela - Roma - £25m: Jury still out
4). Son Heung-min - Bayer Leverkusen - £25m: Success
5). Darren Bent - Charlton Athletic - £21m: Flop
6). Vincent Janssen - AZ Alkmaar - £18m: Flop
7). David Bentley - Blackburn Rovers - £18m: Flop
8). Luka Modric - Dynamo Zagreb - £17m: Success
9). Paulinho - Corinthians - £16m: Flop
10). Mousa Dembele - Fulham - £16m: Success
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETamer%20Ruggli%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadine%20Labaki%2C%20Fanny%20Ardant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Full list of Emmy 2020 nominations
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Ramy Youssef, Ramy
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Linda Cardellini, Dead to Me
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
Issa Rae, Insecure
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
OUTSTANDING VARIETY/TALK SERIES
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Steve Carell, The Morning Show
Brian Cox, Succession
Billy Porter, Pose
Jeremy Strong, Succession
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Zendaya, Euphoria
OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Masked Singer
Nailed It!
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice
LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Jeremy Irons, Watchmen
Hugh Jackman, Bad Education
Paul Mescal, Normal People
Jeremy Pope, Hollywood
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
Shira Haas, Unorthodox
Regina King, Watchmen
Octavia Spencer, Self Made
Kerry Washington, Little Fires Everywhere
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
Little Fires Everywhere
Mrs. America
Unbelievable
Unorthodox
Watchmen
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Dead to Me
The Good Place
Insecure
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Schitt’s Creek
What We Do In The Shadows
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul
The Crown
The Handmaid’s Tale
Killing Eve
The Mandalorian
Ozark
Stranger Things
Succession
More from Aya Iskandarani
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwin-turbo%2C%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E503%20bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E513Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh646%2C800%20(%24176%2C095)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
