The International Monetary Fund on Thursday presented a more “optimistic” path to US price stability than the Federal Reserve, projecting inflation would return to 2 per cent next year.
IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the fund was more optimistic than the US central bank because consumer spending – boosted by savings during the Covid-19 pandemic – may be slowing down.
In contrast, the Fed's monetary policy committee projects inflation to return to its 2 per cent target some time in 2026.
“Last year we were a bit more optimistic," Ms Georgieva told reporters at IMF headquarters in Washington.
"We have proven to be right. Maybe we will be right next year, 2025, as well."
She was speaking after the conclusion of the IMF's Article IV Consultation with the US. The IMF holds a consultation with the US once a year to assess the status of its economy.
While the fund offered a more optimistic path on inflation, its projections for the labour market were more pessimistic.
It anticipates the US unemployment rate to end at 4.2 per cent this year, as opposed to the Fed's 4.0 per cent estimation.
Unlike other central banks, the Fed has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum unemployment.
It has kept its target range steady between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent since last year after aggressively raising rates in reaction to a global surge in inflation.
Ms Georgieva said the Fed should wait to withdraw from the policy until at least late this year, adding the fund projects one rate cut in 2024 and further rate cuts in 2025.
Her remarks broadly echo the consensus among Fed officials in recent weeks. They appear willing to hold off on cutting rates until later this year.
She acknowledged the global importance of the Fed's actions, noting high US rates can increase debt-servicing burdens for countries “who find themselves in dollars”.
“And what we also know is that when the interest rates are high, the dollar is high," she said.
"The flip side of it is many national currencies appreciate, making it harder for countries with depreciating currencies to fight inflation on their own."
IMF presses US on vulnerabilities despite economic strength
The IMF warned the US on a number of issues including trade restrictions, fiscal deficits and vulnerabilities exposed by last year's banking crisis despite the country's resilient economy.
Ms Georgieva said the US economy has been “has been remarkably strong”.
She said the US is the only country from the Group of 20 whose gross domestic product exceeds pre-pandemic level.
The IMF projects the US economy to grow by 2.6 per cent this year, slightly down from its previous 2.7 per cent estimation.
But there are notable risks despite this strength.
In particular, the Fund noted the country's rising debt levels, recent trade restrictions and vulnerabilities exposed by last year's banking crisis.
Noting a “pressing need to reverse the continuing increase in public debt-to-GDP ratio”, the IMF expects general government debt to exceed 140 per cent of GDP by 2032.
It said these deficit and debt levels pose growing risks to the US and global economy.
The fund made several suggestions to address these issues, including a progressive tax system, eliminating a number of tax expenditures and reforming some entitlement programmes.
Ms Georgieva said the US debt level is sustainable, but suggested: “If you can bring it down, you will have even stronger path for the future."
She said Washington should move to address these concerns while economic conditions are favourable.
“The US economy is very strong, and it is in good times where you can do more to prepare yourself for this in the future,” she said.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
'Nope'
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Company%20profile
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FIGHT%20CARD
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RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,200
Winner: Miqyaas, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Rashed Bouresly (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Untold Secret, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Shanty Star, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Alkaamel, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
8.50pm: Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Speedy Move, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Quartier Francois, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Specs%20
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Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Third-place play-off: New Zealand v Wales, Friday, 1pm
Sri Lanka squad
Dinesh Chandimal, Dimuth Karunaratne, Kaushal Silva, Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Lahiru Thirimanne, Niroshan Dickwella, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Rangana Herath, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Lakshan Sandakan, Vishwa Fernando, Lahiru Kumara, Jeffrey Vandersay, Milinda Siriwardana, Roshen Silva, Akila Dananjaya, Charith Asalanka, Shaminda Eranga and Dhammika Prasad.
UAE%20FIXTURES
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WISH
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Buck%2C%20Fawn%20Veerasunthorn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ariana%20DeBose%2C%20Chris%20Pine%2C%20Alan%20Tudyk%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The biog
Name: Sarah Al Senaani
Age: 35
Martial status: Married with three children - aged 8, 6 and 2
Education: Masters of arts in cultural communication and tourism
Favourite movie: Captain Corelli’s Mandolin
Favourite hobbies: Art and horseback ridding
Occupation: Communication specialist at a government agency and the owner of Atelier
Favourite cuisine: Definitely Emirati - harees is my favourite dish
AGL AWARDS
Golden Ball - best Emirati player: Khalfan Mubarak (Al Jazira)
Golden Ball - best foreign player: Igor Coronado (Sharjah)
Golden Glove - best goalkeeper: Adel Al Hosani (Sharjah)
Best Coach - the leader: Abdulaziz Al Anbari (Sharjah)
Fans' Player of the Year: Driss Fetouhi (Dibba)
Golden Boy - best young player: Ali Saleh (Al Wasl)
Best Fans of the Year: Sharjah
Goal of the Year: Michael Ortega (Baniyas)
Timeline
1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line
1962
250 GTO is unveiled
1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company
1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens
1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made
1987
F40 launched
1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent
2002
The Enzo model is announced
2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi
2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled
2013
LaFerrari, the first Ferrari hybrid, arrives
2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company
2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street
2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
