Annual US inflation came in slightly hotter than expected in February, as markets continue to look for clues on the potential timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis in February, up from a 0.3 per cent increase a month earlier, the Labour Department reported on Tuesday. On an annual basis, CPI inflation rose 3.2 per cent, up from 3.1 per cent in January.
Economists estimated a monthly price increase of 0.4 per cent last month compared to January, according to a FactSet survey. Inflation was expected to remain unchanged at 3.1 per cent annually.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.8 per cent year-on-year, down from 3.9 per cent in January. Economists had expected core CPI to come in at 3.7 per cent.
Shelter and gasoline indexes contributed to more than 60 per cent of the monthly increase, the Labour Department said. The energy index rose 2.3 per cent. The food index was unchanged in February after a 0.4 per cent increase the month before.
It is thought Tuesday's inflation report will have little effect on next week's Fed meeting, where policymakers are expected to keep their interest rate range unchanged at between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent.
With a March rate cut effectively ruled out, investors have been analysing data and central bankers' remarks for hints on when rates might begin to be dialled back.
“There's been a lot of energy and focus on the CPI numbers, more than usual … because the market is very interested in determining what the Fed's next actions are going to be, probably more than ever,” said Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management.
In a separate report last week, the Labour Department said employers added 275,000 jobs in February. The department said unemployment slightly increased to 3.9 per cent while wage growth slowed, which could give the Fed some relief that the economy is cooling.
Mr Andersen, who is not expecting any interest rate cuts this year, said he believes there is a “false reliance on every single data point that comes in succession”.
“People are trying to think that because the job number came in weaker that maybe the CPI will also come in weak and … you should not trade or make market calls based on that very short-termism focus,” he said.
The latest economic data comes a week after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told US politicians on Capitol Hill that the central bank was getting closer to cutting rates, although he did not provide a timetable. He and others at the Fed have routinely said they need “greater confidence” before they can begin dialling back.
“When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it’ll be appropriate to begin” cutting rates, he told the Senate banking committee.
Mr Powell also acknowledged the risks in keeping rates elevated for too long or for too short a time.
“Reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of progress we have seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 per cent,” he said.
“At the same time, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
With interest rates expected to be unchanged next week, traders now expect the Fed's first rate cut in July, although May is also possible, according to data from the CME Group.
Meanwhile, a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that the public holds negative expectations on the trajectory of inflation.
In the bank's most recent Survey of Consumer Expectations, respondents believe inflation to remain at 3 per cent this year and for it to move down 2.7 per cent three years from now, up from their previous expectations of 2.4 per cent last month.
The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
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Power: Combined output 920hp
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Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
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Electric scooters: some rules to remember
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A homegrown card payment scheme launched by the National Payments Corporation of India and backed by the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank
RuPay process payments between banks and merchants for purchases made with credit or debit cards
It has grown rapidly in India and competes with global payment network firms like MasterCard and Visa.
In India, it can be used at ATMs, for online payments and variations of the card can be used to pay for bus, metro charges, road toll payments
The name blends two words rupee and payment
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PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
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Publisher: Konami
Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC
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Specs
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
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