Global trade will recover in 2024 but uncertainties stemming from geopolitical frictions and presidential elections in many countries may result in a weaker-than-expected performance, the World Trade Organisation's chief said.
On October 5, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) had forecast 3.3 per cent growth in global trade for 2024, a strong improvement from the 0.8 per cent in 2023, according to its predictions issued before the Israel-Gaza war.
While 2024 will be a better year for global trade than 2023, the WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Friday that the world is “moving towards normalisation”, but at the same time conditions are “not normal”.
Conflicts, the Red Sea crisis impacting the Suez Canal, the drought-hit Panama Canal and the outcome of presidential elections are raising a lot of uncertainties that make it difficult to forecast global trade trends, she said.
“However, I'll take a bit of a risk and say it will be better than 2023, it may not come in at 3.3 per cent, below that, but much better than what we saw in 2023 – unless a major war breaks out, then all bets are off,” she said.
The WTO chief was speaking at a six-member panel discussion on the global economic outlook as the forum's meetings in Davos drew to a close on Friday.
Following the Covid-19 pandemic and then the Russia-Ukraine war, global trade has been hit with a fresh wave of geopolitical turmoil that has disrupted supply chains worldwide.
The Israel-Gaza war, Houthi rebels attacking ships in the Red Sea, US-China trade tensions and the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency in America have raised concerns about free trade flows worldwide.
Major shipping companies have suspended operations in the Red Sea after missile attacks by Houthi rebels, who say they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians, disrupting global trade as the war in Gaza continues.
The Red Sea is linked to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal, making it the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.
The canal is a major artery for the flow of goods, with about 12 per cent of the world's shipping traffic passing through it.
US and UK military forces have launched a series of strikes against rebel sites in Yemen, with the Red Sea attacks prompting many companies to take a long and expensive detour around the Cape of Good Hope instead.
The disruption to global shipping in the Red Sea could last at least a few months as Houthi attacks continue, Vincent Clerc, the chief executive of shipping major Maersk, told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday.
The number of commercial vessels including container ships, tankers and bulk carriers transiting the Suez Canal was down by around 20 per cent to 30 per cent year-on-year as of January 8, according to a Moody's Investors Service report.
Container freight rates have doubled or even tripled compared to a year ago on major east-west routes, though they remain far below the peak in 2021-2022, the rating agency said in its January 17 report.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
New schools in Dubai
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The biog
Fast facts on Neil Armstrong’s personal life:
- Armstrong was born on August 5, 1930, in Wapakoneta, Ohio
- He earned his private pilot’s license when he was 16 – he could fly before he could drive
- There was tragedy in his married life: Neil and Janet Armstrong’s daughter Karen died at the age of two in 1962 after suffering a brain tumour. She was the couple’s only daughter. Their two sons, Rick and Mark, consulted on the film
- After Armstrong departed Nasa, he bought a farm in the town of Lebanon, Ohio, in 1971 – its airstrip allowed him to tap back into his love of flying
- In 1994, Janet divorced Neil after 38 years of marriage. Two years earlier, Neil met Carol Knight, who became his second wife in 1994
UAE SQUAD
Khalid Essa (Al Ain), Ali Khaseif (Al Jazira), Adel Al Hosani (Sharjah), Mahmoud Khamis (Al Nasr), Yousef Jaber (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Khalifa Al Hammadi (Jazira), Salem Rashid (Jazira), Shaheen Abdelrahman (Sharjah), Faris Juma (Al Wahda), Mohammed Shaker (Al Ain), Mohammed Barghash (Wahda), Abdulaziz Haikal (Shabab Al Ahli), Ahmed Barman (Al Ain), Khamis Esmail (Wahda), Khaled Bawazir (Sharjah), Majed Surour (Sharjah), Abdullah Ramadan (Jazira), Mohammed Al Attas (Jazira), Fabio De Lima (Al Wasl), Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Khalfan Mubarak (Jazira), Habib Fardan (Nasr), Khalil Ibrahim (Wahda), Ali Mabkhout (Jazira), Ali Saleh (Wasl), Caio (Al Ain), Sebastian Tagliabue (Nasr).
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
If you go
The flights
Emirates (www.emirates.com) and Etihad (www.etihad.com) both fly direct to Bengaluru, with return fares from Dh 1240. From Bengaluru airport, Coorg is a five-hour drive by car.
The hotels
The Tamara (www.thetamara.com) is located inside a working coffee plantation and offers individual villas with sprawling views of the hills (tariff from Dh1,300, including taxes and breakfast).
When to go
Coorg is an all-year destination, with the peak season for travel extending from the cooler months between October and March.
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier, in Bangkok
UAE fixtures Mon Nov 20, v China; Tue Nov 21, v Thailand; Thu Nov 23, v Nepal; Fri Nov 24, v Hong Kong; Sun Nov 26, v Malaysia; Mon Nov 27, Final
(The winners will progress to the Global Qualifier)
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The five pillars of Islam
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
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%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
