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Prolonged disruption to shipping in the Red Sea could significantly affect several Middle East economies and global trade as Yemen's Houthi rebels continue to carry out attacks on vessels passing through the crucial waterway, a senior International Monetary Fund executive has said.
Freight container prices surged and Suez Canal trade volumes plunged after the first attack on ships by the Houthis last month, Jihad Azour, the fund's director for the Mena region, told the Arab Strategy Forum in Dubai on Wednesday.
“The cost of exports increased, especially in trade between Asia and Europe, knowing that a huge part of oil imports was through the Suez Canal,” Mr Azour said.
The security situation in the Red Sea poses risks to global supply chains and commodity trade as the Indian Ocean waterway serves as a vital route for international trade and shipments of oil and gas, he added.
The Iran-backed Houthis have been launching rockets at cargo ships in the Red Sea since November, actions they claim are in response to Israel's bombardment of Gaza.
Bab Al Mandeb, a strait at the southern edge of the Red Sea, is a route for oil tankers and vessels travelling between the Arabian Gulf and Asia, as well ships headed to Europe by way of the Suez Canal.
About 12 per cent of seaborne oil trade and 8 per cent of the world's liquefied natural gas passes through the strait.
Several shipping companies including Hapag Lloyd, the Mediterranean Shipping Company and Maersk have been rerouting their vessels through southern Africa, a slower and more expensive route as attacks on ships continue in the Red Sea.
Despite the challenges, Mena economies are expected to continue to grow this year and “there will be an improvement in the growth rate”, Mr Azour said.
“However, this has to be put into context of high uncertainty, the uncertainty at the political level, the uncertainty of the risk of escalation [all of which] cast a shadow on the projections for this year,” Mr Azour told The National on the sidelines of the forum.
Gaza conflict
So far, the Gaza conflict has had a limited impact on economies in the broader Mena region, with Palestine and the neighbouring countries feeling the pain, particularly in sectors such as tourism, he said.
Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies are expected to expand by 3.4 per cent in 2024, after growing by an estimated 2 per cent last year, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report in October.
The Palestinian economy, on the other hand, is set to shrink by 3.7 per cent in 2023, from a growth projection of 3.2 per cent before the war, according to the World Bank.
“The other dimension that is important in 2024 is the cost of this uncertainty – how this is going to affect the cost of funding, the capital raised,” Mr Azour said.
“Last but not the least … the global economy is showing signs of recovery and the policies that were introduced globally to address the issue of inflation seems to be producing results, which may have a positive impact or positive upside risk on the region.”
Inflation continued to fall in the US, the world’s largest economy, and the US Federal Reserve has hinted that it may cut interest rates this year.
GCC economies
The GCC's non-oil gross domestic product is expected to continue to grow this year amid diversification efforts, said Mr Azour.
“All GCC countries will see better economic outcomes this year,” he said. “I expect Saudi [Arabia] to do as well as the UAE to maintain the level of growth of 2023 on the non-oil sector.”
Economies in the GCC have recovered from the effects of the coronavirus-induced slowdown on their oil and non-oil sectors, with the growth momentum set to pick up in the next two years amid diversification efforts.
The region is forecast to grow by 1 per cent in 2023 before rebounding to 3.6 per cent and 3.7 per cent in 2024 and 2025, respectively, the World Bank said in November.
The UAE's economy is projected to expand 5.7 per cent this year, with non-oil GDP growth at 4.7 per cent, according to the country's Central Bank.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s finance ministry projects real GDP growth of 4.4 per cent in 2024, boosted by its expanding non-oil sector.
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Equinox
Price, base / as tested: Dh76,900 / Dh110,900
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder
Gearbox: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: Torque: 352Nm @ 2,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.5L / 100km
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FLIP5
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.