The UAE Central Bank has increased its 2024 growth forecast for the country's economy to 5.7 per cent, from 4.3 per cent previously, due to an expected rise in oil production next year.
The banking regulator also revised downwards its growth projections for 2023 to 3.1 per cent from 3.3 per cent, "largely reflecting the extension of oil production cuts through the end of the year", it said in its Quarterly Economic Review report.
While the country's oil gross domestic product is expected to contract by 3.4 per cent annually this year due to output cuts, "as production resumes in 2024" oil GDP growth is forecast to rebound to 8.1 per cent, corresponding to an average of 3.2 million barrels per day, the Central Bank said.
In its latest meeting, the Opec+ group of oil producers announced voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024.
The UAE will voluntarily cut its oil output by an additional 163,000 barrels a day from January until the end of March next year. The country's oil production will be 2.91 million bpd during that period.
Meanwhile, the UAE's non-oil GDP growth has been raised to 5.9 per cent and 4.7 per cent, in 2023 and 2024, respectively, the Central Bank said.
"In addition to the changes in oil production reflecting the recent announcements, the forecasts account for a deceleration in the non-oil sector for 2023 and 2024 as global demand softens," the report said.
Overall, in the second quarter of the year, the UAE's economy grew by 3.8 per cent year on year, compared with an 8 per cent annual rise in the same period last year.
"While the overall growth rate slightly increased with respect to the first quarter of 2023, there was a compositional shift with stronger activity in the non-oil sector [which accounts for close to 75 per cent of GDP] and a decline in oil production," the report said.
Non-oil economic growth accelerated to 7.3 per cent annually in the second quarter.
"Across the different segments of the non-oil economy, a large expansion is registered for financial and insurance services, construction, real estate, wholesale and retail," the report said.
Oil sector GDP growth dropped in the second quarter of 2023 by 5.1 per cent annually, reflecting the "Opec+ agreements, for which the UAE oil production fell to an average of 2.9 million barrels per day during the quarter".
The forecasts for 2023 and 2024 "remain subject to uncertainty, in particular due to the evolution of the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, faster-than-expected deceleration in global growth, further Opec+ cuts or increases in oil production, and subdued oil production of other Opec+ members", the report added.
Global growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.4 per cent this year – marking a recession in the economy – from 3 per cent in 2022 as deepening inequalities, mounting debt and uneven post-Covid recovery take hold, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) said in October.
All regions, except for eastern and central Asia, are expected to post slower growth this year compared to 2022, with Europe registering the largest drop.
Its projection for growth of 2.5 per cent in 2024 depends on the eurozone's recovery and the avoidance of adverse shocks by other leading economies, Unctad said.
For the UAE, Dubai bank Emirates NBD expects headline GDP growth of 3.3 per cent next year, based on the non-oil economy expanding by 4.5 per cent.
The lender "expects no oil sector GDP growth in 2024 as the UAE agreed at the November Opec+ meeting to deepen production cuts in Q1 2024 and will likely only gradually increase output over the remainder of next year", it said in a note on Friday.
Meanwhile, the UAE's government revenue reached Dh246.9 billion ($67.2 billion), or an annualised 26.4 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2023. That was down 19.2 per cent annually, mainly because of lower taxes and other revenue than in the first half of 2022, the Central Bank said.
Total expenditure reached Dh199.5 billion, marking an 8.3 per cent increase compared with the same period last year.
The Central Bank also marginally lowered its inflation projection for 2023 to 2.4 per cent from 2.8 per cent.
"The downward revision mainly reflects the stronger-than-expected pass-through of the decline in food prices and appreciating dirham, partially offset by rising housing prices," it said.
In 2024, inflation is projected to slow further to 2.1 per cent, a downward revision from 2.6 per cent, in line with global disinflationary trends.
Trade
The UAE's total non-oil exports increased by 15.6 per cent annually in the first half of this year, to reach Dh199.6 billion, the Central Bank said.
Switzerland emerged as the UAE’s major non-oil export partner, followed by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Gold accounted for 40 per cent of non-oil exports, followed by aluminium, and petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals.
Re-exports also grew by 13.5 per cent in the first half of the year to Dh302 billion, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq and India the main partners.
Telecoms equipment and diamonds dominated re-exports.
Imports also increased by 19.1 per cent between January and June to reach Dh662.3 billion, "supported by a dynamic non-oil sector and a slight appreciation of the currency vis-à-vis trading partners", the report said.
Gold topped the list of the most imported goods, followed by telecoms equipment, diamonds and motor vehicles. China, India and the US were the key trading partners for imports.
EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
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Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
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Favourite food: Japanese
Favourite car: Lamborghini
Favourite hobby: Football
Favourite quote: If your dreams don’t scare you, they are not big enough
Favourite country: UAE
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Name: Kumulus Water
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Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
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Female 49kg: Mayssa Bastos (BRA) bt Thamires Aquino (BRA); points 0-0 (advantage points points 1-0).
Female 55kg: Bianca Basilio (BRA) bt Amal Amjahid (BEL); points 4-2.
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Female 70kg: Thamara Silva (BRA) bt Alessandra Moss (AUS); submission.
Female 90kg: Gabreili Passanha (BRA) bt Claire-France Thevenon (FRA); submission.
Male 56kg: Hiago George (BRA) bt Carlos Alberto da Silva (BRA); 2-2 (2-0)
Male 62kg: Gabriel de Sousa (BRA) bt Joao Miyao (BRA); 2-2 (2-1)
Male 69kg: Paulo Miyao (BRA) bt Isaac Doederlein (USA); 2-2 (2-2) Ref decision.
Male 77kg: Tommy Langarkar (NOR) by Oliver Lovell (GBR); submission.
Male 85kg: Rudson Mateus Teles (BRA) bt Faisal Al Ketbi (UAE); 2-2 (1-1) Ref decision.
Male 94kg: Kaynan Duarte (BRA) bt Adam Wardzinski (POL); submission.
Male 110kg: Joao Rocha (BRA) bt Yahia Mansoor Al Hammadi (UAE); submission.
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