Global trade is set to contract by 5 per cent to about $30.7 trillion this year due to underperforming exports from developing nations and geopolitical factors, the UN Conference on Trade and Development has said.
It will be a contraction of about $1.5 trillion from a record high of about $32 trillion in 2022, the Geneva-based body said in its Global Trade Update.
Trade in goods will be the hardest-hit as it is projected to decline by 8 per cent, or about $2 trillion, Unctad said. Services trade is expected to gain about 7 per cent, or $500 billion.
“Global trade has experienced negative growth since mid-2022, primarily driven by a substantial decline in goods trade, which continued to contract in the first three quarters of 2023,” the UN agency said.
“In contrast, trade in services has displayed more resilience and its growth remained positive throughout the same period.”
“Unctad nowcast foresees a shift in the fourth quarter of 2023, with an anticipated small increase in goods trade and a decline in services trade.”
Exports from developing countries have underperformed, with South-South trade – between developing countries – sharply decreasing and East Asia trade remaining below average, it said.
Geopolitical trends, including declining interdependence between China and the US, the world's two biggest economies, are having an increasing impact on global trade, Unctad said.
“The war in Ukraine, the sanctions on the Russian Federation and the de-risking in the US-China trade relationship are playing a significant role in shaping key bilateral trade trends,” it said.
“These factors not only impact the economies directly involved but also indirectly influence [the] trade dynamics of other economies.”
Economic activity is being hindered by high interest rates in several economies, according to Unctad.
The view is supported by the latest purchasing managers’ index readings for the US and China, which suggest a subdued outlook for industrial output in the coming months.
“While certain economic indicators hint at potential improvements, persistent geopolitical tensions, high levels of debt and widespread economic fragility are anticipated to exert negative influences on global trade patterns,” it said.
Trade is a critical component of the global economy as it allows nations to expand their markets and access goods and services that may not be available domestically, thus allowing more competitive and cheaper pricing.
In October, trade ministers from the Group of Seven advanced industrial economies pledged to work together to ensure smooth supply chains for essentials such as food and energy amid global geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
The officials agreed that the collaboration with international partners beyond the G7 and co-operation with the private sector were essential for supply chain resilience.
The International Monetary Fund said nations “are almost always better off when they buy and sell from one another”.
Unctad projects world economic growth to decelerate to 2.4 per cent this year, from 3 per cent in 2022, as deepening inequalities, mounting debt and an uneven post-Covid recovery take hold.
This trend would spill over into 2024, with the outlook for global trade remaining “highly uncertain and generally pessimistic”, the UN body said, with substantial disparities expected to persist among countries and regions in terms of anticipated economic forecasts.
The volatility in commodity prices also adds to the uncertainty, with regional conflicts and lingering geopolitical tension expected to further dampen sentiment.
“Additionally, the increasing importance of securing critical minerals for the energy transition is expected to affect prices and further contribute to market volatility in these commodities,” the report said.
Global trade is also being influenced by the way supply chains respond to shifts in trade policy and geopolitical tensions, with notable impacts observed in supply linkages between China and the US, it said.
“Companies from other regions, particularly in East Asian economies and Mexico, have had opportunities to become more integrated into the supply chains affected by geopolitical concerns,” Unctad said.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More on Quran memorisation:
Heavily-sugared soft drinks slip through the tax net
Some popular drinks with high levels of sugar and caffeine have slipped through the fizz drink tax loophole, as they are not carbonated or classed as an energy drink.
Arizona Iced Tea with lemon is one of those beverages, with one 240 millilitre serving offering up 23 grams of sugar - about six teaspoons.
A 680ml can of Arizona Iced Tea costs just Dh6.
Most sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, five teaspoons of sugar in a 500ml bottle.
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
Quick facts on cancer
- Cancer is the second-leading cause of death worldwide, after cardiovascular diseases
- About one in five men and one in six women will develop cancer in their lifetime
- By 2040, global cancer cases are on track to reach 30 million
- 70 per cent of cancer deaths occur in low and middle-income countries
- This rate is expected to increase to 75 per cent by 2030
- At least one third of common cancers are preventable
- Genetic mutations play a role in 5 per cent to 10 per cent of cancers
- Up to 3.7 million lives could be saved annually by implementing the right health
strategies
- The total annual economic cost of cancer is $1.16 trillion
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
What She Ate: Six Remarkable Women & the Food That Tells Their Stories
Laura Shapiro
Fourth Estate
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The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
The%20specs
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
RACECARD%20
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