Mena economies, including Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, as well as the countries in the Levant region are expected to be affected by reduced tourism revenue amid the Israel-Gaza conflict, experts have said.
However, GCC economies will continue to grow amid higher spending by regional governments.
James Reeve, chief economist at Jadwa Investment, told The National on the sidelines of the AIM summit in Dubai on Monday: “Next year would be OK growth-wise [for GCC economies] but not for the Levant … they are going to suffer.
"Then we have a slowdown in tourism for Egypt and potentially Morocco, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.”
The Israel-Gaza war, which has become a major humanitarian crisis, has created further uncertainty for a global economy that is feeling the effects of stubborn inflation and high borrowing costs.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund voiced concern about the conflict and the impact it could have on regional economies.
“We are concerned first and foremost about the epicentre of the war, the tragic loss of lives, but also the destruction and the reduction of economic activity,” the fund's managing director Kristalina Georgieva told the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.
The “chains of the impact” are already visible in neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan, Ms Georgieva said, adding that the uncertainty could “kill” tourist revenue inflow.
“Investors are going to be shy to go to that place, [while the] cost of insurance, if you want to move goods, [will] go up,” she said.
For Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, the loss of tourism revenue due to the conflict “doesn’t cause a material problem but Egypt is going to have a problem", Mr Reeve said.
Home to the Giza pyramids and other attractions, tourism is a key pillar of Egypt’s economy.
The sector's revenue hit $13.6 billion for the fiscal year 2022-2023, up nearly 27 per cent annually, local media reported this month, citing official data.
Strong public-sector investment by the Public Investment Fund will support Saudi Arabia's economy, Mr Reeve said.
The PIF, the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, is boosting spending to develop new projects such as the $500 billion Neom.
Saudi Arabia's economy expanded by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year, a slightly faster pace of growth than the initial estimates, driven by a sharp expansion in the non-oil sector, according to the General Authority for Statistics.
Gross domestic product at current prices was 970 billion Saudi riyals ($258.66 billion) in the three months to the end of June, it said.
The UAE, the Arab world's second-largest economy, will also continue to grow, Mr Reeve added.
“There is probably enough going on in the UAE, in terms of government spending, to keep things bubbling on.”
The UAE economy expanded by 3.7 per cent annually in the first half of the year, driven by strong non-oil sector growth, Abdulla bin Touq, Minister of Economy, told the AIM summit on Monday.
“People clearly see this region [the GCC] as a place of growth, as a place of safety and security,” Gary Dugan, chief investment officer of Dalma Capital, said at the event.
“That’s not broken as yet but if this [Israel-Gaza war] continues for some time, then the whole story loses momentum and you are looking at much more modest growth.”
He also said the global economy would “struggle” next year and record slower growth than in 2023.
“We continue to live in a time of volatility and the risk is definitely increasing,” Anne Walsh, managing partner and chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, said during a panel discussion at the AIM summit.
“We have geopolitical risks ... more inflation, deglobalisation, a monetary tightening era, all of these dragging down activity ... 2024 will be another year like 2023, except [growth] will be slower," she said.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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7.
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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10.
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South Korea
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile%20
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KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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The five pillars of Islam
AIDA%20RETURNS
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THE SPECS
Range Rover Sport Autobiography Dynamic
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 518bhp
Torque: 625Nm
Speed: 0-100kmh 5.3 seconds
Price: Dh633,435
On sale: now
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Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Bridgerton%20season%20three%20-%20part%20one
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20Shipsy%3Cbr%3EYear%20of%20inception%3A%202015%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Soham%20Chokshi%2C%20Dhruv%20Agrawal%2C%20Harsh%20Kumar%20and%20Himanshu%20Gupta%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20India%2C%20UAE%20and%20Indonesia%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20logistics%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%20more%20than%20350%20employees%3Cbr%3EFunding%20received%20so%20far%3A%20%2431%20million%20in%20series%20A%20and%20B%20rounds%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Info%20Edge%2C%20Sequoia%20Capital%E2%80%99s%20Surge%2C%20A91%20Partners%20and%20Z3%20Partners%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
North Pole stats
Distance covered: 160km
Temperature: -40°C
Weight of equipment: 45kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 0
Terrain: Ice rock
South Pole stats
Distance covered: 130km
Temperature: -50°C
Weight of equipment: 50kg
Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300
Terrain: Flat ice
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
The%20Kitchen
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No more lice
Defining head lice
Pediculus humanus capitis are tiny wingless insects that feed on blood from the human scalp. The adult head louse is up to 3mm long, has six legs, and is tan to greyish-white in colour. The female lives up to four weeks and, once mature, can lay up to 10 eggs per day. These tiny nits firmly attach to the base of the hair shaft, get incubated by body heat and hatch in eight days or so.
Identifying lice
Lice can be identified by itching or a tickling sensation of something moving within the hair. One can confirm that a person has lice by looking closely through the hair and scalp for nits, nymphs or lice. Head lice are most frequently located behind the ears and near the neckline.
Treating lice at home
Head lice must be treated as soon as they are spotted. Start by checking everyone in the family for them, then follow these steps. Remove and wash all clothing and bedding with hot water. Apply medicine according to the label instructions. If some live lice are still found eight to 12 hours after treatment, but are moving more slowly than before, do not re-treat. Comb dead and remaining live lice out of the hair using a fine-toothed comb.
After the initial treatment, check for, comb and remove nits and lice from hair every two to three days. Soak combs and brushes in hot water for 10 minutes.Vacuum the floor and furniture, particularly where the infested person sat or lay.
Courtesy Dr Vishal Rajmal Mehta, specialist paediatrics, RAK Hospital
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
