The spillover of the Israel-Gaza war into Lebanon would push its economy into an abyss and severely damage the country’s fragile infrastructure, analysts have warned.
Poverty is expected to surge in the country, which is already in the grip of a severe economic crisis after it defaulted on about $31 billion of Eurobonds in March 2020 and the banking sector suffered heavy losses.
“The economic situation and all the indicators will rapidly deteriorate as a result of the security crisis and the Hamas-Israel war which can spill over into Lebanon,” Nasser Saidi, a former economy minister and vice-governor of Lebanon's central bank, told The National.
An escalation of the conflict into Lebanon, he said, would lead to “potential destruction of its remaining infrastructure, including ports and the airport which are the economic lifeline of the country given its high dependence on the Lebanese diaspora.”
Fears have grown that the Israel-Gaza war, which is in its second week, could engulf the entire region. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged gunfire and shells this week, leading to the deaths of five militants.
Lebanon’s Middle East Airlines has moved five of its planes to Turkey in case the conflict worsens and airports are targeted.
Swiss International Airlines has also suspended flights between Switzerland and Beirut amid the continuing tensions.
Lebanon “could experience complete collapse” if the fighting continued to spread, added Mr Saidi, president of Nasser Saidi and Associates.
“Already we have seen population displacement from the south of the country, while we are witnessing an accelerated exodus of skilled professionals.”
Lebanon is grappling with what the World Bank has called one of the worst global financial crises since the middle of the 19th century.
The banking sector is facing more than $70 billion in losses and the currency has lost more than 90 per cent of its value since 2019 when Lebanon defaulted on its debt for the first time in its history.
The country has yet to enforce critical structural and financial reforms required to unlock $3 billion of assistance from the International Monetary Fund, as well as billions in aid from other international donors, due to a lack of consensus among the political ruling class.
It has a caretaker cabinet led by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, but with limited powers. It also needs to elect a president after the six-year term of Michel Aoun finished at the end of October, but this requires the agreement of the political elite.
“The implications of Hezbollah’s intervention in the current conflict will have devastating economic and political consequences for Lebanon as a whole and southern Lebanon in particular,” Pat Thaker, regional director for Middle East and Africa at the Economic Intelligence Unit, said.
“Economically, the country cannot withstand a wide military confrontation with Israel, the intensity of which will far exceed the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War.
“It would worsen Lebanon's already high inflation rate, currently around 250 per cent per year, increase poverty, which currently hovers around 80 per cent, and further erode the purchasing power of the Lebanese population.”
Inflation in Lebanon hit an annual 230 per cent in August, amid stalled economic reforms and the political vacuum around the country's leadership, according to the official data.
The increase in the cost of living was led by the soaring cost of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, as well as a surge in the price of food, non-alcoholic beverages and transport, the Central Administration of Statistics' Consumer Price Index showed.
A predicted economic recovery in 2024 would be delayed if the country gets involved in the conflict, Maya Senussi, lead economist of the Middle East at Oxford Economics, said.
“The Lebanese economy is vulnerable to downsides stemming from a potential escalation of the war after years of decline,” she said.
Lebanon would also struggle to pay for the massive damage a war would inflict. The central bank's foreign exchange reserves currently stand at $7 billion, compared to $30 billion in 2018.
“There is also the fear that should Hezbollah become involved, America’s response will be strong, including imposing harsh sanctions,” Ms Thaker said.
“Damage to infrastructure could also occur at Beirut's International Airport, the country’s only airport. This would negatively impact one of the few sectors that managed to function this year in Lebanon – the tourism sector,” she added.
The country's currency is expected to come under pressure and its value against the dollar will plunge if the war is extended, analysts say. The Lebanese pound was trading slightly lower at 15,030.5 against the US dollar at 3.40pm UAE time on Wednesday. It is trading at around 90,000 in the parallel market.
“Various rates set by the BdL [Banque du Liban] have been realigned multiple times in 2023 alone, although the official peg has been left at 15,000 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar since a belated devaluation from 1,507.5 Lebanese pounds in February 2023,” Ms Thaker said.
“Although the exchange rate has been more stable since mid-2023, we expect these multiple parallel rates to come under intermittent pressure, in line with continuing political instability.”
Kalra's feat
- Becomes fifth batsman to score century in U19 final
- Becomes second Indian to score century in U19 final after Unmukt Chand in 2012
- Scored 122 in youth Test on tour of England
- Bought by Delhi Daredevils for base price of two million Indian rupees (Dh115,000) in 2018 IPL auction
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
Siblings: five brothers and one sister
Education: Bachelors in Political Science at the University of Minnesota
Interests: Swimming, tennis and the gym
Favourite place: UAE
Favourite packet food on the trip: pasta primavera
What he did to pass the time during the trip: listen to audio books
The biog
Profession: Senior sports presenter and producer
Marital status: Single
Favourite book: Al Nabi by Jibran Khalil Jibran
Favourite food: Italian and Lebanese food
Favourite football player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Languages: Arabic, French, English, Portuguese and some Spanish
Website: www.liliane-tannoury.com
Habib El Qalb
Assi Al Hallani
(Rotana)
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Favourite book: Animal Farm by George Orwell
Favourite music: Classical
Hobbies: Reading and writing
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5-litre%2C%20twin-turbo%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E410hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E495Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Estarts%20from%20Dh495%2C000%20(Dh610%2C000%20for%20the%20F-Sport%20launch%20edition%20tested)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Stage result
1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34
2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe
3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers
4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco
5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo
6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ
7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team
8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma
9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux
10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
The specs: 2019 Jeep Wrangler
Price, base: Dh132,000
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 285hp @ 6,400rpm
Torque: 347Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.6L to 10.3L / 100km
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
WHAT%20START-UPS%20IS%20VISA%20SEEKING%3F
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEnablers%20of%20digital%20services%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Blockchain%20and%20cryptocurrency%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Crowdfunding%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Banking-as-a-service%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Banking%20identification%20number%20sponsors%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Issuers%2Fprocessors%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Programme%20managers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDigital%20issuance%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Blockchain%20and%20cryptocurrency%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Alternative%20lending%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Personal%20financial%20management%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Money%20transfer%20and%20remittance%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Digital%20banking%20(neo%20banks)%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Digital%20wallets%2C%20peer-to-peer%20and%20transfers%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Employee%20benefits%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Payables%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Corporate%20cards%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EValue-add%20for%20merchants%2Fconsumers%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Data%20and%20analytics%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20ID%2C%20authentication%20and%20security%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Insurance%20technology%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Loyalty%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Merchant%20services%20and%20tools%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Process%20and%20payment%20infrastructure%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Retail%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESME%20recovery%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Money%20movement%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Acceptance%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Risk%20management%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Brand%20management%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ENew%20categories%20for%202023%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Sustainable%20FinTechs%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Risk%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%20Urban%20mobility%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
RESULT
Leeds United 1 Manchester City 1
Leeds: Rodrigo (59')
Man City: Sterling (17')
Man of the Match: Rodrigo Moreno (Leeds)
The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410
Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 420Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km
Pathaan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Siddharth%20Anand%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20John%20Abraham%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S23%20ULTRA
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Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
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AIDA%20RETURNS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarol%20Mansour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAida%20Abboud%2C%20Carol%20Mansour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5.%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The Bio
Amal likes watching Japanese animation movies and Manga - her favourite is The Ancient Magus Bride
She is the eldest of 11 children, and has four brothers and six sisters.
Her dream is to meet with all of her friends online from around the world who supported her work throughout the years
Her favourite meal is pizza and stuffed vine leaves
She ams to improve her English and learn Japanese, which many animated programmes originate in
Company%20Profile
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