Record levels of government debt, geopolitical tensions that threaten to split the global trading system and the likely persistence of weak productivity gains may saddle the world with a slow-growth future that stunts development in some countries even before it starts.
That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organised by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend.
It explored issues like the outlook for technological innovation, public debt and the state of international trade at a time when the Russian invasion of Ukraine and conflict between the US and China have eroded a once-broad global agreement, at least in theory, to boost the free flow of goods and services.
"Countries are now in a more fragile environment," International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in an interview on the sidelines of an annual Fed conference.
"They've used a lot of their fiscal resources to deal with a pandemic ... then you have policy-driven forces, geo-economic fragmentation, trade tensions, the decoupling between the West and China.
"If we get to a point where part of the world is stuck without catching up and has large amounts of population, that creates tremendous demographic pressures and migration pressures."
Mr Gourinchas said it was possible that global growth settles into a trend of about 3 per cent annually, a figure far below rates above 4 per cent seen when rapid advances in China's economy drove global output higher and which some economists consider borderline recessionary in a world where quick gains should still be achievable in large, less-developed countries.
But in the emerging pandemic economy, "the global growth environment has become very challenging", said Maurice Obstfeld, a former IMF chief economist and now a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
China is now suffering what may be chronic economic problems, along with a shrinking population. Emerging industrial policies in the US and elsewhere are reordering global production chains in ways that may be more durable or serve national security ends but also be less efficient.
The symposium is among the first major attempts to take stock of longer-term economic developments after the pandemic and amid renewed geopolitical tension after years in which officials were at first preoccupied with fighting Covid-19 itself, then had to focus on a global breakout of inflation.
Economists and policymakers here appeared in rough consensus that two trends from before the pandemic, both with global-growth implications, had been intensified by the health crisis and other recent events.
After rocketing higher during the global financial crisis 15 years ago, the ratio of public debt to world economic output has grown to 60 per cent from 40 per cent thanks to pandemic spending and could now be at a level where serious debt reduction is not politically feasible, Serkan Arslanalp, an economist at the IMF, and Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in a paper.
The implications of public debt that is "here to stay" varies by country, they said, with higher-debt but higher-income nations such as the US likely able to muddle through over time, while smaller nations perhaps face future debt crises or binding fiscal constraints.
Globally, the fallout could be severe if public borrowing steers capital from countries that still have growing populations and less-developed economies, said Cornell University economics professor Eswar Prasad.
"This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labour rich but capital poor," he said. While the populations of major European nations, Japan, China and the US are all ageing, some African nations such as Nigeria continue to grow fast.
The other pre-pandemic trend that has endured and intensified is a rising openness to policies that range from the outright protectionist tariffs imposed under former US president Donald Trump to Biden administration efforts to steer production of commodities such as computer chips back to the US.
White House Council of Economic Advisers chairman Jared Bernstein said at the symposium that the US's industrial policies weren't necessarily tilted either for or against more international trade, since many of the intermediate goods needed to make silicon chips, for example, would be imported.
"In my view the strategies we are pursuing despite a lot of heated rhetoric implies neither more nor less trade," Mr Bernstein said during one discussion.
Others noted the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the fast follow-on divorce of the European power grid from Russian energy had fractured one of the key precepts behind the spread of globalisation: trade would create durable partnerships, if not outright allies.
"I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time ... when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England.
But World Trade Organisation director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said while the pandemic raised reasonable issues around global supply resilience, particularly for sensitive items such as pharmaceuticals, the move to reorder global production patterns risked leaving growth opportunities on the table.
"From a political point of view you can understand how attractive it is to say we see the vulnerabilities so we are going to try to do business with those who have the same values as we do," she said.
But whatever the strategy – "nearshoring," "friendshoring," "reshoring" – she argued that "maybe you need to go a little bit further ... if you are going to diversify anyway ... spread it to those who have been at the margins of the global system".
Friends, she noted, can change, a pointed statement at a time when Mr Trump, who aimed tariffs at Europe, is running again and recently raised the idea of an across-the-board tax on imports.
If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity.
Yet even that was weighed against the possible damage the technology may do and against research findings showing innovation was becoming exponentially harder.
Even beyond that, any benefits may be slow in coming.
"I think of ChatGPT like Peloton," said Nela Richardson, chief economist for payroll processor ADP, comparing the AI innovator with the maker of upmarket exercise bike systems. "You can put as many as you want in a home office. It doesn't mean people are going to use it."
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
TO ALL THE BOYS: ALWAYS AND FOREVER
Directed by: Michael Fimognari
Starring: Lana Condor and Noah Centineo
Two stars
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
INFO
Everton 0
Arsenal 0
Man of the Match: Djibril Sidibe (Everton)
The specs: 2019 Audi A7 Sportback
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 335hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy 5.9L / 100km
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The Specs
Price, base Dh379,000
Engine 2.9-litre, twin-turbo V6
Gearbox eight-speed automatic
Power 503bhp
Torque 443Nm
On sale now
SERIE A FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Roma v Udinese (5pm)
SPAL v Napoli (8pm)
Juventus v Torino (10.45pm)
Sunday
Sampdoria v AC Milan (2.30pm)
Inter Milan v Genoa (5pm)
Crotone v Benevento (5pm)
Verona v Lazio (5pm)
Cagliari v Chievo (5pm)
Sassuolo v Bologna (8pm)
Fiorentina v Atalanta (10.45pm)
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Managing the separation process
- Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
- Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
- Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
- If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
- The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
- Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
WHAT%20MACRO%20FACTORS%20ARE%20IMPACTING%20META%20TECH%20MARKETS%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Looming%20global%20slowdown%20and%20recession%20in%20key%20economies%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Russia-Ukraine%20war%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Interest%20rate%20hikes%20and%20the%20rising%20cost%20of%20debt%20servicing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Oil%20price%20volatility%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Persisting%20inflationary%20pressures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shortage%20of%20labour%2Fskills%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20A%20resurgence%20of%20Covid%3F%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE LOWDOWN
Photograph
Rating: 4/5
Produced by: Poetic License Motion Pictures; RSVP Movies
Director: Ritesh Batra
Cast: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Sanya Malhotra, Farrukh Jaffar, Deepak Chauhan, Vijay Raaz
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
