Global trade volumes will grow at a “moderate pace” in the third quarter of the year after rebounding in the second on surging automotive exports following two quarters of decline, according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
The WTO’s periodic goods barometer jumped to 99.1 in June from 95.6 in May, the Geneva-based organisation said in a report published on Thursday.
The goods trade barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends.
Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The volume of merchandise trade was down 1 per cent year-on-year and 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2023, “extending a downturn that began in the fourth quarter of 2022,” the report said.
High food and energy prices linked to the war in Ukraine, and tighter monetary policies aimed at fighting inflation in advanced economies contributed to the slump in global trade during the period.
“Global import demand remains weak, weighed down by sluggish economic growth in leading economies including the European Union and China,” the report said.
The euro area, which was greatly affected by the Ukraine war, soaring energy prices and record inflation last year, is set to cool as the European Central Bank continues to raise interest rates to restore price stability.
Growth in the bloc, which includes 20 countries that use the euro as their primary currency, is forecast at 0.9 per cent in 2023, following a 3.5 per cent expansion in 2022.
Most of the barometer's component indices were slightly below trend in their latest readings, including the export orders index (97.6), the container shipping index (99.5), the air freight index (97.5), and the raw materials index (99.2).
The main exceptions were the automotive products index (110.8), which has climbed firmly above the trend and the electronic components index (91.5), which has fallen below the trend.
“Surging exports of automotive products have contributed to stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Japan in the first half of 2023,” the report said.
Japan’s economy has expanded much faster than forecast, as a surge in exports more than offset weaker-than-expected results for both business investment and private consumption.
Its gross domestic product grew at an annualised pace of six per cent in the second quarter, marking the strongest growth since the last quarter of 2020, Bloomberg reported earlier this month citing Cabinet Office data.
“Vehicle exports have also been a rare source of strength for the Chinese economy, which has struggled to gain momentum in recent months,” the report said.
Chinese economy is forecast to grow at 5.2 per cent in 2023, following a 3 per cent expansion in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.
WTO in April projected 1.7 per cent growth in merchandise trade in 2023 and the target “is still attainable if trade growth picks up in the second half of the year as expected,” it said.
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
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- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
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Notable salonnières of the Middle East through history
Al Khasan (Okaz, Saudi Arabia)
Tamadir bint Amr Al Harith, known simply as Al Khasan, was a poet from Najd famed for elegies, earning great renown for the eulogy of her brothers Mu’awiyah and Sakhr, both killed in tribal wars. Although not a salonnière, this prestigious 7th century poet fostered a culture of literary criticism and could be found standing in the souq of Okaz and reciting her poetry, publicly pronouncing her views and inviting others to join in the debate on scholarship. She later converted to Islam.
Maryana Marrash (Aleppo)
A poet and writer, Marrash helped revive the tradition of the salon and was an active part of the Nadha movement, or Arab Renaissance. Born to an established family in Aleppo in Ottoman Syria in 1848, Marrash was educated at missionary schools in Aleppo and Beirut at a time when many women did not receive an education. After touring Europe, she began to host salons where writers played chess and cards, competed in the art of poetry, and discussed literature and politics. An accomplished singer and canon player, music and dancing were a part of these evenings.
Princess Nazil Fadil (Cairo)
Princess Nazil Fadil gathered religious, literary and political elite together at her Cairo palace, although she stopped short of inviting women. The princess, a niece of Khedive Ismail, believed that Egypt’s situation could only be solved through education and she donated her own property to help fund the first modern Egyptian University in Cairo.
Mayy Ziyadah (Cairo)
Ziyadah was the first to entertain both men and women at her Cairo salon, founded in 1913. The writer, poet, public speaker and critic, her writing explored language, religious identity, language, nationalism and hierarchy. Born in Nazareth, Palestine, to a Lebanese father and Palestinian mother, her salon was open to different social classes and earned comparisons with souq of where Al Khansa herself once recited.
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Teaching in coronavirus times
Omar Yabroudi's factfile
Born: October 20, 1989, Sharjah
Education: Bachelor of Science and Football, Liverpool John Moores University
2010: Accrington Stanley FC, internship
2010-2012: Crystal Palace, performance analyst with U-18 academy
2012-2015: Barnet FC, first-team performance analyst/head of recruitment
2015-2017: Nottingham Forest, head of recruitment
2018-present: Crystal Palace, player recruitment manager
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'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
More on Quran memorisation:
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
