The decision by Fitch Ratings to strip the US of its AAA sovereign credit rating by a notch has reignited the debate about the US dollar’s role as the cornerstone of the global currency order, according to Swiss banking group UBS.
However, there is no imminent threat to the greenback’s status and Switzerland's largest bank said it expects a US dollar-centric world for years to come.
Last week, the US was stripped of its top-tier sovereign credit grade by Fitch, which criticised the country’s ballooning fiscal deficits and an “erosion of governance” that has led to repeated debt limit clashes over the past two decades.
The agency cut the US one level to AA+ from AAA, echoing a move made more than a decade ago by S&P Global Ratings.
Fitch said it expects US government debt to rise to 118 per cent of gross domestic product by 2025, compared with a median of about 39 per cent for AAA-rated nations.
“From a cyclical perspective, we expect the US dollar to weaken and are most preferred on the euro and the Japanese yen,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“However, our call for a weaker US dollar in the near future is not based on the assumption of a declining global currency status.”
Both factors Fitch cited to downgrade the US’s credit rating are unhelpful in sustaining the USD’s role as the linchpin of the global financial system, according to UBS.
It seems realistic to expect the landscape to become more diverse going forward, with several currencies and even commodities playing critical roles, UBS said.
Global currency regimes are sticky, the bank said.
“The US dollar dominates financial markets and international trade. Changes in the world’s dominant currency have historically taken a long time to materialise,” according to the UBS report.
“Even as great economic powers rise and fall, their currencies’ reserve status tends to survive well past the peak of their influence.”
The latest International Monetary Fund survey on the currency composition of global foreign exchange reserves reveals that the share of US dollars held by central banks still stands at almost 60 per cent, the report showed.
The greenback is also used in more than 40 per cent of every global payment and dominates 85 per cent of trade finance contracts, according to Swift data.
The US dollar also continues to stand out as the world’s most liquid currency, UBS said.
The depth of the US Treasury bond market is second to none, the report noted.
The US dollar was on one side of 88 per cent of all global currency trades in 2022, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
“It remains solidly in first place when it comes to derivatives such as forwards, swaps and options,” UBS said.
“This is relevant, since the ability to hedge exposure to a given currency through derivatives appeals strongly to reserve managers and those involved in international trade.”
Despite all the challenges the US financial and political system is experiencing, the country still ranks highly in various gauges, including rule of law, regulatory quality and efficiency, and market openness, UBS pointed out.
Our call for a weaker US dollar in the near future is not based on the assumption of a declining global currency status
Mark Haefele,
chief investment officer, UBS Global Wealth Management
As a result, the US continues to attract large flows of foreign investment.
The US must treat the privilege of being able to issue the world’s pre-eminent assets with respect, the report said.
The prospect of yet another federal government shutdown in October does not improve the country’s reputation, it added.
While competition for the dollar is rising, UBS said it does not see any leading rival to dethrone the currency in coming years.
This was illustrated by the UBS annual reserve manager survey, conducted this year among 40 central banks from all regions.
When asked which reserve currencies or assets are most likely to benefit from macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts over the next five years, reserve managers provided a wide range of answers, rather than a single competitor, the UBS report showed.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
SPEC%20SHEET
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M2%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206%2C%20Bluetooth%205.0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%2C%20midnight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%20or%2035W%20dual-port%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C999%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SECRET%20INVASION
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ali%20Selim%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Samuel%20L%20Jackson%2C%20Olivia%20Coleman%2C%20Kingsley%20Ben-Adir%2C%20Emilia%20Clarke%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
MANDOOB
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Ali%20Kalthami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Mohammed%20Dokhei%2C%20Sarah%20Taibah%2C%20Hajar%20Alshammari%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Letswork%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOmar%20Almheiri%2C%20Hamza%20Khan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20co-working%20spaces%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.1%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20with%20investors%20including%20500%20Global%2C%20The%20Space%2C%20DTEC%20Ventures%20and%20other%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20about%2020%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
T20 World Cup Qualifier fixtures
Tuesday, October 29
Qualifier one, 2.10pm – Netherlands v UAE
Qualifier two, 7.30pm – Namibia v Oman
Wednesday, October 30
Qualifier three, 2.10pm – Scotland v loser of qualifier one
Qualifier four, 7.30pm – Hong Kong v loser of qualifier two
Thursday, October 31
Fifth-place playoff, 2.10pm – winner of qualifier three v winner of qualifier four
Friday, November 1
Semi-final one, 2.10pm – Ireland v winner of qualifier one
Semi-final two, 7.30pm – PNG v winner of qualifier two
Saturday, November 2
Third-place playoff, 2.10pm
Final, 7.30pm
MATCH SCHEDULE
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tuesday, April 24 (10.45pm)
Liverpool v Roma
Wednesday, April 25
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (10.45pm)
Europa League semi-final, first leg
Thursday, April 26
Arsenal v Atletico Madrid (11.05pm)
Marseille v Salzburg (11.05pm)
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EDate%20started%3A%20January%202022%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Omar%20Abu%20Innab%2C%20Silvia%20Eldawi%2C%20Walid%20Shihabi%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20PropTech%20%2F%20investment%3Cbr%3EEmployees%3A%2040%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Seed%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Multiple%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Porsche Macan T: The Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 265hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,800-4,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Speed: 0-100kph in 6.2sec
Top speed: 232kph
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
On sale: May or June
Price: From Dh259,900
THE LOWDOWN
Photograph
Rating: 4/5
Produced by: Poetic License Motion Pictures; RSVP Movies
Director: Ritesh Batra
Cast: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Sanya Malhotra, Farrukh Jaffar, Deepak Chauhan, Vijay Raaz
Isle of Dogs
Director: Wes Anderson
Starring: Bryan Cranston, Liev Schreiber, Ed Norton, Greta Gerwig, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Scarlett Johansson
Three stars
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C600rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C500-4%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.9L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh119%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
