The US defaulting on its debt could seriously affect energy markets but the chances of that happening are “exceedingly low”, the president of S&P Global Commodity Insights has said.
“I think markets generally believe at this point that at the last minute either a deal will get worked out or the administration will find technical ways to get around the congressional approval they need to be able to service the debt,” Saugata Saha told The National in an interview on Tuesday.
America is less than two weeks away from a potential default on its debt, an outcome that would adversely hit American consumers and send shock waves across the entire global financial system.
US President Joe Biden and Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy are currently locked in negotiations on how to raise the debt limit — the maximum amount of debt the Treasury Department can borrow to fulfil its financial commitments.
A default would take currency markets to places “the world’s not seen before” and that in turn would affect energy prices and trading as most of the crude oil is exchanged using the US dollar, Mr Saha said.
“It will likely lead to severe recessions, which again will have an impact on energy consumption and demand.”
A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The US Dollar Index — a measure of its value against a weighted basket of major currencies — has gained nearly 1 per cent over the past five days amid rising economic uncertainty.
The global oil market also faces rising uncertainty from potential actions by the Group of Seven countries to further enforce price caps on Russian energy exports.
Last year, the EU and the G7 agreed to place a price cap of $60 a barrel on global purchases of seaborne Russian crude. This was followed by caps on Russian petroleum exports in February.
The policy aims have likely been achieved but looking ahead it is unclear where some of the policy talks will lead to, Mr Saha said.
“One thing that is quite clear is that the markets remain quite resilient and demand-supply balance right now looks a lot better than it was a year ago,” he said.
“The global economy is still humming [and] prices have not gone crazy, so in general, I'd say both policymakers and markets have managed these transitions quite well.”
After surging to nearly $140 a barrel last year, Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, is currently trading below $80 a barrel — a level deemed comfortable for most oil-buying nations.
S&P Global expects oil prices to stay in the “mid-to-high 80s” for the remainder of this year into next, Mr Saha said.
S&P is also “bullish” on prices in the short to medium term as limited spare production capacity in the market makes crude price rises more likely, Mr Saha said.
While the global economy is expected to be “fairly healthy” in the short term, there could be some surprises in the form of slowing interest rises and geopolitical factors, he said.
“The unwinding of the current monetary policy could tip the world into a deep recession … that is a possibility.”
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
HERO%20CUP%20TEAMS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%3Cins%3EContinental%20Europe%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fins%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrancesco%20Molinari%20(c)%3Cbr%3EThomas%20Detry%3Cbr%3ERasmus%20Hojgaard%3Cbr%3EAdrian%20Meronk%3Cbr%3EGuido%20Migliozzi%3Cbr%3EAlex%20Noren%3Cbr%3EVictor%20Perez%3Cbr%3EThomas%20Pieters%3Cbr%3ESepp%20Straka%3Cbr%3EPlayer%20TBC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%3Cins%3EGreat%20Britain%20%26amp%3B%20Ireland%3C%2Fins%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ETommy%20Fleetwood%20(c)%3Cbr%3EEwen%20Ferguson%3Cbr%3ETyrrell%20Hatton%3Cbr%3EShane%20Lowry%3Cbr%3ERobert%20MacIntyre%3Cbr%3ESeamus%20Power%3Cbr%3ECallum%20Shinkwin%3Cbr%3EJordan%20Smith%3Cbr%3EMatt%20Wallace%3Cbr%3EPlayer%20TBC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
A%20MAN%20FROM%20MOTIHARI
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdullah%20Khan%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPenguin%20Random%20House%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E304%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PULITZER PRIZE 2020 WINNERS
JOURNALISM
Public Service
Anchorage Daily News in collaboration with ProPublica
Breaking News Reporting
Staff of The Courier-Journal, Louisville, Ky.
Investigative Reporting
Brian M. Rosenthal of The New York Times
Explanatory Reporting
Staff of The Washington Post
Local Reporting
Staff of The Baltimore Sun
National Reporting
T. Christian Miller, Megan Rose and Robert Faturechi of ProPublica
and
Dominic Gates, Steve Miletich, Mike Baker and Lewis Kamb of The Seattle Times
International Reporting
Staff of The New York Times
Feature Writing
Ben Taub of The New Yorker
Commentary
Nikole Hannah-Jones of The New York Times
Criticism
Christopher Knight of the Los Angeles Times
Editorial Writing
Jeffery Gerritt of the Palestine (Tx.) Herald-Press
Editorial Cartooning
Barry Blitt, contributor, The New Yorker
Breaking News Photography
Photography Staff of Reuters
Feature Photography
Channi Anand, Mukhtar Khan and Dar Yasin of the Associated Press
Audio Reporting
Staff of This American Life with Molly O’Toole of the Los Angeles Times and Emily Green, freelancer, Vice News for “The Out Crowd”
LETTERS AND DRAMA
Fiction
"The Nickel Boys" by Colson Whitehead (Doubleday)
Drama
"A Strange Loop" by Michael R. Jackson
History
"Sweet Taste of Liberty: A True Story of Slavery and Restitution in America" by W. Caleb McDaniel (Oxford University Press)
Biography
"Sontag: Her Life and Work" by Benjamin Moser (Ecco/HarperCollins)
Poetry
"The Tradition" by Jericho Brown (Copper Canyon Press)
General Nonfiction
"The Undying: Pain, Vulnerability, Mortality, Medicine, Art, Time, Dreams, Data, Exhaustion, Cancer, and Care" by Anne Boyer (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
and
"The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America" by Greg Grandin (Metropolitan Books)
Music
"The Central Park Five" by Anthony Davis, premiered by Long Beach Opera on June 15, 2019
Special Citation
Ida B. Wells
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Match info
Australia 580
Pakistan 240 and 335
Result: Australia win by an innings and five runs
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Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.
'Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore'
Rating: 3/5
Directed by: David Yates
Starring: Mads Mikkelson, Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, Jude Law
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
The biog
Most memorable achievement: Leading my first city-wide charity campaign in Toronto holds a special place in my heart. It was for Amnesty International’s Stop Violence Against Women program and showed me the power of how communities can come together in the smallest ways to have such wide impact.
Favourite film: Childhood favourite would be Disney’s Jungle Book and classic favourite Gone With The Wind.
Favourite book: To Kill A Mockingbird for a timeless story on justice and courage and Harry Potters for my love of all things magical.
Favourite quote: “We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.” — Winston Churchill
Favourite food: Dim sum
Favourite place to travel to: Anywhere with natural beauty, wildlife and awe-inspiring sunsets.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
