Most Wall Street economists expect the US to fall into a recession during the coming year. What does that mean for American workers?
Using the Jobs Calculator developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, combined with forecasts for peak unemployment, here’s a look at how job losses could accumulate.
Among economists who expect a downturn, the average of 15 predictions suggests that the US economy will shed about 1.7 million jobs over the next year or so – roughly 120,000 a month.
But every recession is different, with an impact that depends on lots of things including what caused it and how long it lasts.
In some cases, unemployment reaches its highest point while the economy is still shrinking, and in others the peak comes months after the downturn has officially ended.
Forecasting if and when a recession will begin – and how high unemployment may rise as a result – is notoriously difficult. Economists still try.
A word many of them are using at the moment to describe the expected downturn is “mild” – but even that scenario would involve hundreds of thousands of Americans, at a minimum, losing their jobs.
Using the baseline assumptions in the Atlanta Fed’s model, unemployment at 4.2 per cent or above in a year’s time will mean that monthly US payrolls have turned negative.
Bank of America is predicting a recession beginning in the third quarter of this year, which causes the unemployment rate to rise to 4.7 per cent in early 2024.
The implication? According to the Atlanta Fed's Jobs Calculator, that would equate to about 97,000 net job losses each month until then – or some 1.1 million net jobs lost by the time of peak unemployment.
Deutsche Bank forecasts recession beginning in the final months of this year and unemployment rising to near 5.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2024, which would lead to 149,000 net job losses per month for a total of 2.1 million jobs.
UBS projects recession begins in the third quarter of this year; unemployment rises to 5.4 in mid-2024, with 137,000 net job losses per month and a total of 1.9 million jobs lost.
Nationwide expects a recession in the third quarter of this year, with unemployment rising to 5.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2024 as net job losses per month reach 106,000 and the total lost climbing to 1.8 million.
Jefferies expects a recession beginning in the third quarter of this year, unemployment rising to 6.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, with 202,000 net job losses per month and a total hit of 3.4 million jobs.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the country could skirt a downturn, but staff at the Fed expect a “mild recession” to begin later this year.
The median projection among Fed board members and regional bank presidents in March was for unemployment to rise to 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter and remain elevated next year.
That would equate to about 128,000 job losses each month through the end of this year.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EXare%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%2018%2C%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPadmini%20Gupta%2C%20Milind%20Singh%2C%20Mandeep%20Singh%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20Raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2410%20million%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E28%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMS%26amp%3BAD%20Ventures%2C%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Astra%20Amco%2C%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%2C%20Fintech%20Fund%2C%20500%20Startups%2C%20Khwarizmi%20Ventures%2C%20and%20Phoenician%20Funds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
ATP RANKINGS (NOVEMBER 4)
1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 9,585 pts ( 1)
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8,945 (-1)
3. Roger Federer (SUI) 6,190
4. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 5,705
5. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 5,025
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 4,000 ( 1)
7. Alexander Zverev (GER) 2,945 (-1)
8. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 2,670 ( 1)
9. Roberto Bautista (ESP) 2,540 ( 1)
10. Gaël Monfils (FRA) 2,530 ( 3)
11. David Goffin (BEL) 2,335 ( 3)
12. Fabio Fognini (ITA) 2,290
13. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 2,180 (-2)
14. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2,125 ( 1)
15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2,050 ( 13)
16. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 2,000
17. Karen Khachanov (RUS) 1,840 (-9)
18. Alex De Minaur (AUS) 1,775
19. John Isner (USA) 1,770 (-2)
20. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 1,747 ( 7)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6-cylinder%2C%204.8-litre%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5-speed%20automatic%20and%20manual%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E280%20brake%20horsepower%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E451Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh153%2C00%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20card%3Cbr%3EMiddleweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERobert%20Whittaker%20defeated%20Ikram%20Aliskerov%20via%20knockout%20(Round%201)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHeavyweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EAlexander%20Volkov%20def%20Sergei%20Pavlovich%20via%20unanimous%20decision%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EKelvin%20Gastelum%20def%20Daniel%20Rodriguez%20via%20unanimous%20decision%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EShara%20Magomedov%20def%20Antonio%20Trocoli%20via%20knockout%20(Round%203)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELight%20heavyweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EVolkan%20Oezdemir%20def%20Johnny%20Walker%20via%20knockout%20(Round%201)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPreliminary%20Card%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ENasrat%20Haqparast%20def%20Jared%20Gordon%20via%20split%20decision%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EFelipe%20Lima%20def%20Muhammad%20Naimov%20via%20submission%20(Round%203)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERinat%20Fakhretdinov%20defeats%20Nicolas%20Dalby%20via%20split%20decision%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMuin%20Gafurov%20def%20Kang%20Kyung-ho%20via%20unanimous%20decision%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELight%20heavyweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMagomed%20Gadzhiyasulov%20def%20Brendson%20Ribeiro%20via%20majority%20decision%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChang%20Ho%20Lee%20def%20Xiao%20Long%20via%20split%20decision%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What's in the deal?
Agreement aims to boost trade by £25.5bn a year in the long run, compared with a total of £42.6bn in 2024
India will slash levies on medical devices, machinery, cosmetics, soft drinks and lamb.
India will also cut automotive tariffs to 10% under a quota from over 100% currently.
Indian employees in the UK will receive three years exemption from social security payments
India expects 99% of exports to benefit from zero duty, raising opportunities for textiles, marine products, footwear and jewellery
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Series result
1st ODI Zimbabwe won by 6 wickets
2nd ODI Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets
3rd ODI Sri Lanka won by 8 wickets
4th ODI Zimbabwe won by 4 wickets
5th ODI Zimbabwe won by 3 wickets
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
The%20specs%3A%20Panamera%20Turbo%20E-Hybrid
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E930Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh749%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Panamera
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.9-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E353hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E500Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh408%2C200%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Company Profile
Company name: Yeepeey
Started: Soft launch in November, 2020
Founders: Sagar Chandiramani, Jatin Sharma and Monish Chandiramani
Based: Dubai
Industry: E-grocery
Initial investment: $150,000
Future plan: Raise $1.5m and enter Saudi Arabia next year
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2019 BMW i8 Roadster
Price, base: Dh708,750
Engine: 1.5L three-cylinder petrol, plus 11.6 kWh lithium-ion battery
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 374hp (total)
Torque: 570Nm (total)
Fuel economy, combined: 2.0L / 100km