Most Wall Street economists expect the US to fall into a recession during the coming year. What does that mean for American workers?
Using the Jobs Calculator developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, combined with forecasts for peak unemployment, here’s a look at how job losses could accumulate.
Among economists who expect a downturn, the average of 15 predictions suggests that the US economy will shed about 1.7 million jobs over the next year or so – roughly 120,000 a month.
But every recession is different, with an impact that depends on lots of things including what caused it and how long it lasts.
In some cases, unemployment reaches its highest point while the economy is still shrinking, and in others the peak comes months after the downturn has officially ended.
Forecasting if and when a recession will begin – and how high unemployment may rise as a result – is notoriously difficult. Economists still try.
A word many of them are using at the moment to describe the expected downturn is “mild” – but even that scenario would involve hundreds of thousands of Americans, at a minimum, losing their jobs.
Using the baseline assumptions in the Atlanta Fed’s model, unemployment at 4.2 per cent or above in a year’s time will mean that monthly US payrolls have turned negative.
Bank of America is predicting a recession beginning in the third quarter of this year, which causes the unemployment rate to rise to 4.7 per cent in early 2024.
The implication? According to the Atlanta Fed's Jobs Calculator, that would equate to about 97,000 net job losses each month until then – or some 1.1 million net jobs lost by the time of peak unemployment.
Deutsche Bank forecasts recession beginning in the final months of this year and unemployment rising to near 5.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2024, which would lead to 149,000 net job losses per month for a total of 2.1 million jobs.
UBS projects recession begins in the third quarter of this year; unemployment rises to 5.4 in mid-2024, with 137,000 net job losses per month and a total of 1.9 million jobs lost.
Nationwide expects a recession in the third quarter of this year, with unemployment rising to 5.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2024 as net job losses per month reach 106,000 and the total lost climbing to 1.8 million.
Jefferies expects a recession beginning in the third quarter of this year, unemployment rising to 6.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, with 202,000 net job losses per month and a total hit of 3.4 million jobs.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the country could skirt a downturn, but staff at the Fed expect a “mild recession” to begin later this year.
The median projection among Fed board members and regional bank presidents in March was for unemployment to rise to 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter and remain elevated next year.
That would equate to about 128,000 job losses each month through the end of this year.
Stage 5 results
1 Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 3:48:53
2 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team -
3 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott -
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:00:04
5 Ilnur Zakarin (RUS) CCC Team 0:00:07
General Classification:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 20:35:04
2 Tadej Pogacar (SlO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:01
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 0:01:33
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:48
5 Rafał Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe 0:02:11
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Scores
Day 2
New Zealand 153 & 56-1
Pakistan 227
New Zealand trail by 18 runs with nine wickets remaining
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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PRO BASH
Thursday’s fixtures
6pm: Hyderabad Nawabs v Pakhtoon Warriors
10pm: Lahore Sikandars v Pakhtoon Blasters
Teams
Chennai Knights, Lahore Sikandars, Pakhtoon Blasters, Abu Dhabi Stars, Abu Dhabi Dragons, Pakhtoon Warriors and Hyderabad Nawabs.
Squad rules
All teams consist of 15-player squads that include those contracted in the diamond (3), platinum (2) and gold (2) categories, plus eight free to sign team members.
Tournament rules
The matches are of 25 over-a-side with an 8-over power play in which only two fielders allowed outside the 30-yard circle. Teams play in a single round robin league followed by the semi-finals and final. The league toppers will feature in the semi-final eliminator.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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More on Quran memorisation:
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
The Breadwinner
Director: Nora Twomey
Starring: Saara Chaudry, Soma Chhaya, Laara Sadiq
Three stars
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs: 2017 Dodge Ram 1500 Laramie Longhorn
Price, base / as tested: Dhxxx
Engine: 5.7L V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 556Nm @ 3,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz GLA
Price, base / as tested Dh150,900 / Dh173,600
Engine 2.0L inline four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed automatic
Power 211hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 1,200rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
DUBAI WORLD CUP CARNIVAL CARD
6.30pm Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.05pm UAE 1000 Guineas Listed $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.40pm Dubai Dash Listed $175,000 (T) 1,000m
8.15pm Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions $100,000 (D) 1.900m
8.50pm Al Fahidi Fort Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,400m
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (D) 2,000m
The National selections
6.30pm: Gifts Of Gold
7.05pm Final Song
7.40pm Equilateral
8.15pm Dark Of Night
8.50pm Mythical Magic
9.25pm Franz Kafka
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Paltan
Producer: JP Films, Zee Studios
Director: JP Dutta
Cast: Jackie Shroff, Sonu Sood, Arjun Rampal, Siddhanth Kapoor, Luv Sinha and Harshvardhan Rane
Rating: 2/5
WHAT%20ARE%20THE%20PRODUCTS%20WITHIN%20THE%20THREE%20MAJOR%20CATEGORIES%3F
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20materials%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20specifically%20engineered%20to%20exhibit%20novel%20or%20enhanced%20properties%2C%20that%20confer%20superior%20performance%20relative%20to%20conventional%20materials%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20components%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20includes%20semiconductor%20components%2C%20such%20as%20microprocessors%20and%20other%20computer%20chips%2C%20and%20computer%20vision%20components%20such%20as%20lenses%20and%20image%20sensors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdvanced%20products%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20includes%20personal%20electronics%2C%20smart%20home%20devices%20and%20space%20technologies%2C%20along%20with%20industry-enabling%20products%20such%20as%20robots%2C%203D%20printing%20equipment%20and%20exoskeletons%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Strategy%26amp%3B%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Venom
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Cast: Tom Hardy, Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed
Rating: 1.5/5
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Abu Dhabi race card
5pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,400m
6pm: Liwa Oasis (PA) Group 2 | Dh300,000 | 1,400m
6.30pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-2 (PA) Group 3 | Dh300,000 | 2,200m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap | Dh70,000 | 1,600m
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) | Dh80,000 | 2,200m
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Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Winners
Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)
Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)
Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)
Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)
Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)
Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)
Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)
Du Plessis plans his retirement
South Africa captain Faf du Plessis said on Friday the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia in two years' time will be his last.
Du Plessis, 34, who has led his country in two World T20 campaigns, in 2014 and 2016, is keen to play a third but will then step aside.
"The T20 World Cup in 2020 is something I'm really looking forward to. I think right now that will probably be the last tournament for me," he said in Brisbane ahead of a one-off T20 against Australia on Saturday.
Meghan%20podcast
%3Cp%3EMeghan%20Markle%2C%20the%20wife%20of%20Prince%20Harry%2C%20launched%20her%20long-awaited%20podcast%20Tuesday%2C%20with%20tennis%20megastar%20Serena%20Williams%20as%20the%20first%20guest.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20Duchess%20of%20Sussex%20said%20the%2012-part%20series%2C%20called%20%22Archetypes%2C%22%20--%20a%20play%20on%20the%20name%20of%20the%20couple's%20oldest%20child%2C%20Archie%20--%20would%20explore%20the%20female%20experience.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELast%20year%20the%20couple%20told%20Oprah%20Winfrey%20that%20life%20inside%20%22The%20Firm%22%20had%20been%20miserable%2C%20and%20that%20they%20had%20experienced%20racism.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22I%20don't%20ever%20remember%20personally%20feeling%20the%20negative%20connotation%20behind%20the%20word%20ambitious%2C%20until%20I%20started%20dating%20my%20now-husband%2C%22%20she%20told%20the%20tennis%20champion.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
