The US, the world’s largest economy, and Europe are headed for a shallow recession while the Middle East and the rest of Asia will continue to grow, a top executive at Bahrain-based alternative asset manager Investcorp has said.
“The Western Hemisphere, US and Europe, we can certainly anticipate an economic growth slowdown, maybe a shallow recession, during the second half of 2023, maybe even into early 2024 resulting from tightening of monetary policy and high inflation,” Rishi Kapoor, co-chief executive of Investcorp told The National in an exclusive interview.
However, economies in the Middle East as well as China, the world's second-largest economy, India and South-East Asian countries will continue to grow amid a “pretty robust environment”, Mr Kapoor said.
Watch: What is a recession?
“The Middle East and Asia, a very different narrative. Those economies are booming. They don't have as acute an inflation problem as the interest rate issue. Global growth trends over there and those economies are pretty supportive.”
In April, the International Monetary Fund said that advanced economies would drag on the global economy this year, with growth expected to fall to 1.3 per cent before rebounding to 1.4 per cent in 2024, after expanding 2.7 per cent in 2022.
The US, the biggest of the group, is forecast to expand by 1.6 per cent in 2023, instead of 1.4 per cent as previously projected and lower than the 2.1 per cent growth recorded last year, according to the IMF.
Its economy is projected to expand 1.1 per cent in 2024.
The US is continuing to raise interest rates to tame inflation, which hit a peak of 9.1 per cent in June last year.
In contrast, emerging market and developing economies are expected to grow 3.9 per cent in 2023, the IMF said.
China, which reopened its economy in January after lifting zero-Covid restrictions, is projected to grow at 5.2 per cent, while India is expected to outpace the world's economies with a 5.9 per cent expansion in 2023, the IMF report added.
According to the IMF, real GDP growth in the Middle East and Central Asia are forecast to grow by 2.9 per cent this year following a 5.3 per cent expansion in 2022, before improving to 3.5 per cent in 2024.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is forecast to grow 3.1 per cent this year and the next following an 8.7 per cent expansion in 2022, it added.
Investcorp, which counts Mubadala Investment Company as its biggest shareholder, will continue to boost investments in India as economic growth picks up.
Mr Kapoor believes that “basic drivers” for long-term growth such as young demographics, political stability and regulatory structure are robust in markets like India, South-East Asia and China.
Currently, the company manages about $1 billion worth of assets in Asia’s third-largest economy, which it aims to grow to $5 billion in the next three to five years with investments across six core sectors: health care, logistics, social infrastructure, IT and IT services, consumer tech and financial services.
The Indian economy is “growing and is one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world and it is likely to continue to grow. The regulatory and political landscape has become much more stable and dependable over the last several years, including the legal institutional architecture”, Mr Kapoor said.
“The most attractive bit about India today is the demographic … it is a young population that is quite educated and, most importantly, it is digitally native. They access goods and services on their mobile phones seamlessly and are aspiring to have access to affordable, high-quality goods and services through a digital channel.”
This trend allows businesses to leverage technology to scale up rapidly in an organised manner, given the size of the population, he added.
The company aims to finance new deals through a $400 million India-focused fund, as well as a new fund that it plans to launch in the future.
The most attractive bit about India today is the demographic … it is a young population that is quite educated and, most importantly, it is digitally native
Rishi Kapoor,
co-chief executive of Investcorp
Investcorp has completed 15 deals in India in the past four years. Last year, it led an investment totalling 5.45 billion Indian rupees ($66.3 million) in Global Dental Services, Asia’s largest dental chain and one of the top 15 dental services organisations globally.
Its other investments in India include V-Ensure, NDR Warehousing, Intergrow Brands, Freshtohome, Bewakoof.com, Zolo and Unilog, among others.
The company also aims to grow its assets in the US to about $50 billion in the next five years from about $23 billion currently.
In April, Investcorp acquired a majority stake in Shearer Supply, a distributor of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning equipment for residential and commercial properties in the US.
“The company will continue to invest in private equity, real estate and credit in the US,” said Mr Kapoor.
“We announced the $1.2 billion fund that we just closed, that's the primary vehicle for our private equity business and similarly we have funds for real estate and for our credit business.”
The company closed its inaugural North American Private Equity Fund I in March with the participation of blue-chip institutional investors such as pension plans, family offices, private wealth funds and an insurance company.
It is targeting family and founder-owned businesses across six sub-sectors as part of its investment strategy. These are: technology-enabled, knowledge and professional, data and information, supply chain, industry and consumer services.
“From an asset class perspective, private credit is very attractive right now because the demand for credit is high and interest rates are high,” said Mr Kapoor.
“The return that we are getting is very attractive, we are able to get low double-digit return on credit, which in the last 20 years, we haven't seen.”
Last year, Investcorp agreed to buy US-based Marble Point Credit Management, a specialist asset manager focused exclusively on managing CLOs (collateralised loan obligation) and portfolios of broadly syndicated leveraged loans.
In real estate, it continues to see opportunities in logistics warehouses, as well as in multifamily and student housing assets amid a supply shortage.
In private equity “we see continued opportunity in three areas, specifically white-collar business services, including service providers that aid the journey towards digitalisation and specialist consulting; blue-collar business services that are relatively immune to the cycle, and more recession-resilient sectors, such as essential maintenance and repair infrastructure”, said Mr Kapoor.
The company also recently opened an office in Japan and will look to invest in different asset classes.
Japan is one of “the top five global economies in terms of its size, very mature, very developed, but somewhat underpenetrated when it comes to asset classes such as private equity, private real estate, private credit”, Mr Kapoor said.
“Since it's somewhat underpenetrated, we see it as an interesting, attractive market to enter into and deploy capital for our investors.”
Set up in 1982, Investcorp has grown to become one of the leading alternative asset management companies in the region.
It has 14 offices in the US, Europe, the GCC and Asia, including in India, China, Japan and Singapore. It oversees $50 billion in assets, including assets managed by third parties.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
UAE'S%20YOUNG%20GUNS
%3Cp%3E1%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20age%2026%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E2%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20age%2020%2C%2066%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E3%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20age%2021%2C%2065%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E4%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20age%2021%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E5%20Heena%20Hotchandani%2C%20age%2023%2C%2016%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E6%20Rinitha%20Rajith%2C%20age%2018%2C%2034%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E7%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20age%2017%2C%2053%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E8%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%2C%20age%2017%2C%2068%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E9%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20age%2017%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E10%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20age%2018%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E11%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20age%2018%2C%2046%20matches%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Iman%20Mersal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20And%20Other%20Stories%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20240%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20EA%20Vancouver%2C%20EA%20Romania%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20EA%20Sports%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
EMILY%20IN%20PARIS%3A%20SEASON%203
%3Cp%3ECreated%20by%3A%20Darren%20Star%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Lily%20Collins%2C%20Philippine%20Leroy-Beaulieu%2C%20Ashley%20Park%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202.75%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WandaVision
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany
Directed by: Matt Shakman
Rating: Four stars
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Case For Trump
By Victor Davis Hanson
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test Thursday-Monday at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The lowdown
Badla
Rating: 2.5/5
Produced by: Red Chillies, Azure Entertainment
Director: Sujoy Ghosh
Cast: Amitabh Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Amrita Singh, Tony Luke
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More about Middle East geopolitics
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The Cockroach
(Vintage)
Ian McEwan
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Juvenile arthritis
Along with doctors, families and teachers can help pick up cases of arthritis in children.
Most types of childhood arthritis are known as juvenile idiopathic arthritis. JIA causes pain and inflammation in one or more joints for at least six weeks.
Dr Betina Rogalski said "The younger the child the more difficult it into pick up the symptoms. If the child is small, it may just be a bit grumpy or pull its leg a way or not feel like walking,” she said.
According to The National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases in US, the most common symptoms of juvenile arthritis are joint swelling, pain, and stiffness that doesn’t go away. Usually it affects the knees, hands, and feet, and it’s worse in the morning or after a nap.
Limping in the morning because of a stiff knee, excessive clumsiness, having a high fever and skin rash are other symptoms. Children may also have swelling in lymph nodes in the neck and other parts of the body.
Arthritis in children can cause eye inflammation and growth problems and can cause bones and joints to grow unevenly.
In the UK, about 15,000 children and young people are affected by arthritis.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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The five pillars of Islam
RESULTS: 2018 WORLD CUP QUALIFYING - EUROPE
Albania 0 Italy 1
Finland 2 Turkey 2
Macedonia 4 Liechtenstein
Iceland 2 Kosovo 0
Israel 0 Spain 1
Moldova 0 Austria 1
Serbia 1 Georgia 0
Ukraine 0 Croatia 2
Wales 0 Ireland 1
