Global trade is showing signs of recovery, following a projected rise in April driven by the strength of the EU's imports and exports, a study has found.
Activity is estimated to have posted a 1.5 per cent monthly growth in April, picking up "somewhat more strongly" following a period of weakness in the winter half-year, which covers October through March, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said in its monthly update.
This is, however, down from the 2.1 per cent expansion global trade recorded in the same month in 2022, according to the Germany-based economic research institute.
Global activity was anchored by the EU, which posted positive trade figures for both exports and imports, at 2.7 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively, the Kiel Institute said.
Imports in Germany climbed 2.2 per cent, but exports declined 0.7 per cent, which "paints a less clearer picture" for Europe's biggest economy, it said.
Europe's biggest economy doubled its gross domestic product growth forecast for 2023 — to 0.4 per cent from 0.2 per cent in late January — after it made it through the winter period without major energy problems, Berlin said last month.
"Intra-European trade in particular is benefiting, as is France's trade in goods. But also neighbours outside the single market such as the UK, Norway and Switzerland display a positive development in April," Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator, wrote in the study.
Global trade has recovered from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, but has since had to face multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, including decades-high inflation, consecutive interest rate hikes from central banks and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war that has hit supply chains.
World trade growth is expected to decline this year to 2.4 per cent, despite an easing of supply bottlenecks, before rising to 3.5 per cent in 2024, after growing by 5.1 per cent in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said last month.
Global economic growth is projected drop to 2.1 per cent this year, compared to an earlier projection of 2.2 per cent, from 3.1 per cent in 2022, the UN Trade and Development Conference said in its latest Trade and Development Report Update released last month.
The US was the only other major region tracked by Kiel to record growth in both metrics: exports inched up 0.6 per cent, while imports posted the highest growth of 3.4 per cent, the study showed.
Despite a "very weak March, no counterimpulse can be seen in the indicator values for exports. Imports, however, are likely to make up lost ground," Kiel said.
US economic growth slowed to 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, as the possibility of a mild recession increases, the Commerce Department said last month.
Inflation in the world's biggest economy slowed again in March as the Federal Reserve's interest rates help to ease price pressures on households and businesses.
China, the world's second-biggest economy, recorded a 1.3-per cent decline in exports, as imports rose 0.5 per cent in April, the Kiel index showed, following a negative winter half-year in the midst of strict lockdown measures meant to stem the spread of Covid.
"Apparently, the economic recovery after the end of the zero-Covid policy leads to higher domestic consumption, but currently not to increased foreign trade," Mr Stamer said.
Apparently, the economic recovery after the end of [China's] zero-Covid policy leads to higher domestic consumption, but currently not to increased foreign trade
Vincent Stamer,
head of the Kiel Trade Indicator
Meanwhile, the volume of standard containers shipped worldwide also rose again slightly in April to almost 14 million units per day, confirming the upward trend of recent weeks, Kiel said in the study.
Since the start of the weak winter phase in October 2022, the volume of goods shipped globally in containers has recovered by about 3 per cent, it said.
Freight activity in the Red Sea — the key maritime trade route between Europe and Asia — the 600,000 standard containers shipped per day mark was exceeded in April for the first time since the traffic jam during the Ever Given accident in the Suez Canal two years ago, Kiel said in the study.
This resulted in closing the gap between actual and expected freight volumes, calculated from average trade volumes from 2017 to 2019, it said.
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
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Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
Results
Men's finals
45kg:Duc Le Hoang (VIE) beat Zolfi Amirhossein (IRI) points 29-28. 48kg: Naruephon Chittra (THA) beat Joseph Vanlalhruaia (IND) TKO round 2.
51kg: Sakchai Chamchit (THA) beat Salam Al Suwaid (IRQ) TKO round 1. 54kg: Veerasak Senanue (THA) beat Huynh Hoang Phi (VIE) 30-25.
57kg: Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) RSC round 3. 60kg: Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 30-27.
63.5kg: Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE) 29-28. 67kg: Narin Wonglakhon (THA) beat Mohammed Mardi (UAE) 29-28.
71kg: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) w/o Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ). 75kg: Youssef Abboud (LBN) w/o Ayoob Saki (IRI).
81kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Khaled Tarraf (LBN) 29-28. 86kg: Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Emil Umayev (KAZ) 30-27.
91kg: Hamid Reza Kordabadi (IRI) beat Mohamad Osaily (LBN) RSC round 1. 91-plus kg: Mohammadrezapoor Shirmohammad (IRI) beat Abdulla Hasan (IRQ) 30-27.
Women's finals
45kg: Somruethai Siripathum (THA) beat Ha Huu Huynh (VIE) 30-27. 48kg: Thanawan Thongduang (THA) beat Colleen Saddi (PHI) 30-27.
51kg: Wansawang Srila Or (THA) beat Thuy Phuong Trieu (VIE) 29-28. 54kg: Ruchira Wongsriwo (THA) beat Zeinab Khatoun (LBN) 30-26.
57kg: Sara Idriss (LBN) beat Zahra Nasiri Bargh (IRI) 30-27. 60kg: Kaewrudee Kamtakrapoom (THA) beat Sedigheh Hajivand (IRI) TKO round 2.
63.5kg: Nadiya Moghaddam (IRI) w/o Reem Al Issa (JOR).
Army of the Dead
Director: Zack Snyder
Stars: Dave Bautista, Ella Purnell, Omari Hardwick, Ana de la Reguera
Three stars
