S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on Turkey to negative from stable, citing an increase in broader public sector risks and increased reconstruction costs after the earthquakes in February.
Turkey's long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings were affirmed at “B”, which is two levels below investment grade on S&P's scale, the New York-based ratings agency said in a statement on Friday.
The negative outlook reflects risks to Turkey's creditworthiness from “untenable” monetary, financial and economic policy settings, S&P said.
“Our unsolicited transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'B', signifying that the risk the sovereign prevents private sector debtors from servicing foreign currency-denominated debt is about the same as the risk of a sovereign default,” it said.
“As a consequence of intensifying external, monetary, fiscal and banking system pressures, we revised our outlook on Turkey to negative from stable and affirmed our unsolicited 'B/B' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the sovereign.”
Regulatory pressure is on the rise, while usable foreign currency reserves are modest at an estimated $37.7 billion as of February 28, equivalent to one-fifth of short-term external debt by remaining maturity, S&P said.
“In our view, contingent liabilities from state banks and public enterprises are large and growing, while balance-of-payments and exchange-rate vulnerabilities remain elevated.”
Up until the February earthquake, Turkey's economy had been performing well: its economy posted the third highest growth among G20 countries in 2022, rising 5.6 per cent, trailing India and Saudi Arabia, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reported last month. This follows an 11.4 per cent growth in 2021.
The country's economy was nearly 20 per cent larger in real terms than pre-pandemic figures in 2019, official data from the TurkStat agency shows. Private consumption was 42 per cent above 2019 levels.
But the February earthquakes damaged Turkey's economy and society. Damage from the tremors — which also struck Syria — is estimated to exceed $100 billion, the United Nations said last month.
Reconstruction costs as a result of the earthquakes, meanwhile, are seen to require external financing of as much as 12 per cent of gross domestic product, although a considerable portion of this could come from grants rather than debt, it said.
“Unrestrained inflation complicates our fiscal, economic and monetary analysis,” S&P said.
However, the “greatest” fiscal and economic risk to Turkey stems from its large and increasingly pressured banking system, with total assets are 98 per cent of GDP, it said. About 30 per cent of its loan book and 41 per cent of deposits are denominated in foreign currency.
“As a consequence, asset quality and financial strength are highly sensitive to exchange rate developments and risk management standards at individual commercial banks, both public and private,” S&P said.
S&P said it could raise its ratings on Turkey if the effectiveness of policies in the country's monetary and financial sectors improve, and its balance of payments position strengthened, specifically the central bank's net foreign currency reserves.
However, it could also lower the ratings if the pressure on Turkey's financial stability or wider public finances were to increase further, it said.
Given Turkey's elevated current account deficits, limited usable reserves, high inflation and reliance on occasional capital inflows, the outlook for the exchange rate remains, at best, uncertain
S&P Global
“Low policy rates, directed lending and regulatory controls on foreign currency positions and interest rates render the Turkish economy and banking system more vulnerable to external shocks, against a backdrop of slowing global growth and difficult market conditions,” it said.
Policy direction, meanwhile, remains uncertain, as political pressure on the central bank continues, S&P said.
Missteps in policy could arise from the 2023 general elections, which are scheduled for May, with high food inflation, exchange rate volatility and a hit to real incomes likely to be contributing factors, it said.
S&P did acknowledge that Ankara has provided additional fiscal support in the form of business tax deferrals and one-off social payments in response to the earthquakes, leading to an increase in the cash deficit reported in the first two months of 2023.
“Given Turkey's elevated current account deficits, limited usable reserves, high inflation and reliance on occasional capital inflows, the outlook for the exchange rate remains, at best, uncertain,” S&P said.
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEducatly%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohmmed%20El%20Sonbaty%2C%20Joan%20Manuel%20and%20Abdelrahman%20Ayman%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEducation%20technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%242%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEnterprise%20Ireland%2C%20Egypt%20venture%2C%20Plus%20VC%2C%20HBAN%2C%20Falak%20Startups%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Top New Zealand cop on policing the virtual world
New Zealand police began closer scrutiny of social media and online communities after the attacks on two mosques in March, the country's top officer said.
The killing of 51 people in Christchurch and wounding of more than 40 others shocked the world. Brenton Tarrant, a suspected white supremacist, was accused of the killings. His trial is ongoing and he denies the charges.
Mike Bush, commissioner of New Zealand Police, said officers looked closely at how they monitored social media in the wake of the tragedy to see if lessons could be learned.
“We decided that it was fit for purpose but we need to deepen it in terms of community relationships, extending them not only with the traditional community but the virtual one as well," he told The National.
"We want to get ahead of attacks like we suffered in New Zealand so we have to challenge ourselves to be better."
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20six-cylinder%20turbo%20(BMW%20B58)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20340hp%20at%206%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500Nm%20from%201%2C600-4%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ZF%208-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100kph%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.2sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20267kph%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh462%2C189%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWarranty%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030-month%2F48%2C000k%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Omar%20Hilal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Muhammad%20Farrag%2C%20Bayoumi%20Fouad%2C%20Nelly%20Karim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TEST SQUADS
Bangladesh: Mushfiqur Rahim (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Soumya Sarkar, Imrul Kayes, Liton Das, Shakib Al Hasan, Mominul Haque, Nasir Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Mehedi Hasan, Shafiul Islam, Taijul Islam, Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed.
Australia: Steve Smith (captain), David Warner, Ashton Agar, Hilton Cartwright, Pat Cummins, Peter Handscomb, Matthew Wade, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Matt Renshaw, Mitchell Swepson and Jackson Bird.
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Results
%3Cp%3EStage%204%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Juan%20Sebastian%20Molano%20(COL)%20Team%20UAE%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2050min%2001sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Olav%20Kooij%20(NED)%20Jumbo-Visma%20%E2%80%93%20ST%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Sam%20Welsford%20(AUS)%20Team%20DSM)%20%E2%80%93%20ST%0D%3Cbr%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%207%E2%80%B3%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Pello%20Bilbao%20(ESP)%20Bahrain%20Victorious%20%E2%80%93%2011%E2%80%B3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
FIGHT%20CARD
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PRESIDENTS CUP
Draw for Presidents Cup fourball matches on Thursday (Internationals first mention). All times UAE:
02.32am (Thursday): Marc Leishman/Joaquin Niemann v Tiger Woods/Justin Thomas
02.47am (Thursday): Adam Hadwin/Im Sung-jae v Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
03.02am (Thursday): Adam Scott/An Byeong-hun v Bryson DeChambeau/Tony Finau
03.17am (Thursday): Hideki Matsuyama/CT Pan v Webb Simpson/Patrick Reed
03.32am (Thursday): Abraham Ancer/Louis Oosthuizen v Dustin Johnson/Gary Woodland
