Economic losses from the deadly 7.8-magnitude and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes that struck Turkey on February 6 are set to exceed $25 billion, with the road to recovery expected to take several years, a report has found.
The total insured loss from the disaster is also estimated to pass $5 billion, Moody’s RMS, a catastrophe risk modelling and solutions company, said on Thursday.
The estimates of economic loss only reflect the effect of the tremors in Turkey and not in Syria.
They include damage to property and contents, and business interruption across residential, commercial and industrial lines in the country, the report said.
They do not include post-event loss amplification or losses to non-modelled exposures such as transport and utility infrastructure.
The insured loss covers those to private insurers, as well as to the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool.
The quakes, which struck southern Turkey, killed more than 47,000 people, with 11 provinces severely affected, including Gaziantep, Hatay, and Kahramanmaras, the Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change has said.
More than 335,000 buildings are reported to have been damaged.
“The earthquakes ruptured geometrically complex faults with multiple branches and were part of an active sequence that included over 400 events of magnitude-4 or greater," said Nilesh Shome, vice president of earthquake model development at Moody’s RMS.
"It is very unusual for an earthquake to trigger another event of such a magnitude as the magnitude-7.5 earthquake.
"The two largest earthquakes generated significant ground motions, and many areas were impacted by both events.”
The total cost of the quakes, including loss of life, damage to infrastructure, loss to the gross domestic product and loss of working days, is estimated at about $84 billion, which is equal to about 10 per cent of Turkey's GDP, a report published by the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation this month found.
That includes $70.75 billion of housing loss, $10.4 billion of national income loss and $2.91 billion of loss of working days, it said.
Observations from early damage reports issued by Turkish officials indicate a "systemic lack of adherence to seismic provisions, including government ‘amnesty’ programmes that have allowed continued occupancy of structures that do not meet seismic design requirements", the Moody's RMS report said.
"Ongoing research will aim to understand the full extent of these code lapses, together with any future code updates and enforcement mechanisms that could arise from this event."
Any tightening of the codes or more stringent enforcement will probably increase repair and rebuild times, especially because the number of destroyed structures is so extensive, the company said.
The disaster emphasised the "devastation that can arise when large magnitude events coincide with vulnerable building stock", said Laura Barksby, product manager at Moody’s RMS.
"We continue to learn from each significant earthquake, and the events in Turkey act as a wake-up call for other earthquake-prone regions, particularly concerning the true quality of the building stock.”
Looking ahead, the "road to recovery in Turkey will take several years due to the scale of the damage, and complex macroeconomic conditions that existed prior to the events, including significant inflation, will hamper the reconstruction and add to the overall costs", the report said.
The Turkish economy, which made a strong rebound from the coronavirus-induced slowdown and grew by more than 11 per cent in 2021, according to official data, has faced serious challenges in recent quarters.
Economic expansion decelerated to about 5 per cent in 2022 and is expected to moderate further to 3 per cent this year, the International Monetary Fund said.
Rising consumer price inflation hit a 24-year high of 85.5 per cent in October, before slowing to 57.7 per cent in January.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expects inflation in Turkey to remain at 44.6 per cent in 2023, as opposed to Ankara’s projection of 24.9 per cent for this year.
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Haemoglobin disorders explained
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
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Born November 11, 1948
Education: BA, English Language and Literature, Cairo University
Family: Four brothers, seven sisters, two daughters, 42 and 39, two sons, 43 and 35, and 15 grandchildren
Hobbies: Reading and traveling
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
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Syria squad
Goalkeepers: Ibrahim Alma, Mahmoud Al Youssef, Ahmad Madania.
Defenders: Ahmad Al Salih, Moayad Ajan, Jehad Al Baour, Omar Midani, Amro Jenyat, Hussein Jwayed, Nadim Sabagh, Abdul Malek Anezan.
Midfielders: Mahmoud Al Mawas, Mohammed Osman, Osama Omari, Tamer Haj Mohamad, Ahmad Ashkar, Youssef Kalfa, Zaher Midani, Khaled Al Mobayed, Fahd Youssef.
Forwards: Omar Khribin, Omar Al Somah, Mardik Mardikian.
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The years Ramadan fell in May
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9.25pm: Handicap (75-95) Dh 190,000 1,600m.
Winner: Pillar Of Society, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
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Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
The biog
Date of birth: 27 May, 1995
Place of birth: Dubai, UAE
Status: Single
School: Al Ittihad private school in Al Mamzar
University: University of Sharjah
Degree: Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Hobby: I enjoy travelling a lot, not just for fun, but I like to cross things off my bucket list and the map and do something there like a 'green project'.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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