The reopening of China’s economy and a full recovery in the country's domestic demand may raise global output by around one per cent in 2023 and lead to a rally in oil prices, according to a report by Goldman Sachs.
Regional Asian economies and oil exporters are likely to be the biggest winners from China’s reopening, but it also should provide a healthy boost to gross domestic product levels in most economies, the global investment banking and securities firm said.
China’s reopening should "provide a boost to commodities demand and prices, particularly for oil”, Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani, the authors of the report, said.
“A recovery to trend should boost Brent oil prices by roughly $15 per barrel. In a more aggressive reopening scenario in which international travel recovers more rapidly, prices could rise further, for a cumulative increase in oil prices of up to $21 per barrel, or more than 20 per cent of the current level.”
China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is forecast to expand 5.2 per cent this year after beating expectations with a 3 per cent acceleration in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund. Growth rebounded to 8.4 per cent in 2021 following a deceleration after the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
India and China will account for half of global growth this year, compared with only a tenth for the US and euro area combined, according to the IMF, which raised its global economic growth estimate for this year by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9 per cent in its World Economic Outlook report.
China’s growth outlook faces "significant risks", stemming from the uncertain trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic, how policies evolve in response to the Covid-19 situation and the responses of households and businesses, the World Bank said in a December report.
Additionally, "persistent stress" in the real estate sector could have wider macroeconomic and financial spillovers, while risks related to climate change are growing, the Washington-based lender said.
External risks to China's growth outlook include highly uncertain global growth prospects, greater-than-expected tightening in financial conditions and heightened geopolitical tensions, according to the World Bank report.
Goldman Sachs said that oil price increases caused by the reopening of China’s economy will add 0.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent to Canada and Latin America GDP levels, but lead to declines of 0.1 per cent to 0.6 per cent from the output in other economies.
“For most economies, higher oil prices will weigh on real incomes and growth, thereby offsetting the boost from the recovery in goods and services trade. However, net oil exporters such as Canada and some Latin American economies should benefit from higher prices and demand,” the New York-based company said.
Increased domestic demand in China — to the tune of a 5 per cent increase — should boost goods exports from other economies, although this growth boost should prove modest outside of Asia-Pacific economies, according to the report.
Reopening-led goods demand will provide a moderate boost of 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent to GDP in most Asia-Pacific economies and roughly half that in Latin America, but relatively small positive effects elsewhere, it added.
Meanwhile, a recovery in Chinese demand for foreign services — particularly for international travel — should also provide a modest boost to global growth, Goldman Sachs said.
A full normalisation of international travel will provide a sizeable GDP boost to Asian emerging markets and other regional economies but a more modest boost elsewhere, although there could be somewhat larger effects if there is significant pent-up demand for international travel from China, according to the report.
China’s reopening is also expected to boost global inflation.
Reopening-led oil price increases will contribute 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points to headline inflation in most emerging markets and roughly half that in the US, though effects could be roughly 40 per cent larger in the event of a faster reopening pace, Goldman Sachs estimated.
“The clear risk from reopening is that stronger growth could lead inflation to surprise to the upside later this year,” the report said.
“As a string of mostly downside inflation surprises have driven an easing in global financial conditions and enabled central banks to slow the pace of rate hikes in recent months, a larger inflation impulse from reopening may force central banks to hike rates further than markets currently expect to keep growth below potential and remain on track to tame inflation.”
After hitting 8.8 per cent in 2022, global inflation is expected to fall to 6.6 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 per cent, the IMF said last month. About 84 per cent of countries are expected to have lower headline inflation in 2023 than in 2022.
23-man shortlist for next six Hall of Fame inductees
Tony Adams, David Beckham, Dennis Bergkamp, Sol Campbell, Eric Cantona, Andrew Cole, Ashley Cole, Didier Drogba, Les Ferdinand, Rio Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler, Steven Gerrard, Roy Keane, Frank Lampard, Matt Le Tissier, Michael Owen, Peter Schmeichel, Paul Scholes, John Terry, Robin van Persie, Nemanja Vidic, Patrick Viera, Ian Wright.
'Downton Abbey: A New Era'
Director: Simon Curtis
Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan
Rating: 4/5
Western Clubs Champions League:
- Friday, Sep 8 - Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Bahrain
- Friday, Sep 15 – Kandy v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Friday, Sep 22 – Kandy v Bahrain
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Opening day UAE Premiership fixtures, Friday, September 22:
- Dubai Sports City Eagles v Dubai Exiles
- Dubai Hurricanes v Abu Dhabi Saracens
- Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Getting%20there%20
%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Ftravel%2F2023%2F01%2F12%2Fwhat-does-it-take-to-be-cabin-crew-at-one-of-the-worlds-best-airlines-in-2023%2F%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EEtihad%20Airways%20%3C%2Fa%3Eflies%20daily%20to%20the%20Maldives%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%20The%20journey%20takes%20four%20hours%20and%20return%20fares%20start%20from%20Dh3%2C995.%20Opt%20for%20the%203am%20flight%20and%20you%E2%80%99ll%20land%20at%206am%2C%20giving%20you%20the%20entire%20day%20to%20adjust%20to%20island%20time.%20%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERound%20trip%20speedboat%20transfers%20to%20the%20resort%20are%20bookable%20via%20Anantara%20and%20cost%20%24265%20per%20person.%20%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
|
1.
|
United States
|
|
2.
|
China
|
|
3.
|
UAE
|
|
4.
|
Japan
|
|
5
|
Norway
|
|
6.
|
Canada
|
|
7.
|
Singapore
|
|
8.
|
Australia
|
|
9.
|
Saudi Arabia
|
|
10.
|
South Korea
|
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
What She Ate: Six Remarkable Women & the Food That Tells Their Stories
Laura Shapiro
Fourth Estate
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
