The appetite for sovereign debt restructuring has significantly risen, with low-income and developing nations finding it difficult to manage borrowings amid a steep rise in interest rates and inflation hitting double digits in some countries, the global head of Alvarez & Marsal's sovereign advisory says.
The global consultancy, which launched sovereign advisory services this year, is already in talks with governments in the Middle East, Asia and Africa looking for solutions to lighten their debt burden and manage finances of public sector companies that are draining resources, Reza Baqir said.
“We are engaged in several conversations right now with a diversity of status: some more advanced, some less advanced,” Mr Baqir told The National.
“There is an appetite, a growing appetite [for debt restructuring] … not just at a country level but also at a global level.”
Emerging and developing economies are where “you will see a combination of issues related to debt, related to state-owned enterprises as well as creation and growth of sovereign wealth funds”, Mr Baqir said.
He is a former International Monetary Fund executive and was governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.
Lower and middle-income countries, excluding China, have steadily accumulated debt since 2010.
Their debt to gross national income ratio jumped to 36.3 per cent in 2021 from 25.6 per cent in 2010, according to World Bank’s International Debt Report, launched last year.
Total external debt of all developing economies, including low and middle-income countries, surged to $9 trillion at the end of 2021, more than double the amount a decade ago.
Debt of the poorest countries eligible to borrow from the World Bank’s International Development Association nearly tripled to $1 trillion over the same period, according to World Bank data.
These countries now spend more than a tenth of their export revenues to service their long-term public and publicly guaranteed external borrowings — the highest proportion since 2000.
Global economic challenges and rising cost of borrowings are tipping a large number of countries into debt crises.
About 60 per cent of the poorest countries are already at high risk of debt distress or already in distress, the World Bank estimates.
Central banks around the globe are raising their benchmark interest rates to curb a sharp rise in inflation.
In December, the US Federal Reserve increased its the policy rate by 50 basis points, bringing interest rates to a range of 4.25 per cent and 4.50 per cent, the highest in 15 years.
The Fed, along with the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to continue increasing rates to control inflation.
After hitting 8.8 per cent in 2022, global inflation is expected to fall to 6.6 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024, although it will still be above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 per cent, the IMF said in its latest economic outlook.
Developing and emerging economies in the past were able to roll over their debts as interest rates were kept low for a very long time after the global financial crisis, Mr Baqir said.
But this time the global environment is very different, posing growing challenges amid higher interest rates.
The rise in inflation has also brought its own set of domestic economic challenges, he said.
“This, in our view, is intricately related to appetite. Our key goal is to help sovereigns address these problems earlier, rather than later,” he said.
The sooner countries start addressing these issues, the lower the cost of resolving the debt crisis will be, Mr Baqir added.
Globally, the ratio of debt to gross domestic product fell for a sixth consecutive quarter in the July-September period to 343 per cent of GDP, however, emerging markets bucked the trend, the International Institute of Finance said in November.
The world's debt-to-GDP ratio was 20 percentage points lower at the end of the third quarter than its peak in the first quarter of 2021, with global debt declining by $6.4 trillion to $290 trillion, the IIF Global Debt Monitor report showed.
This is more than $15 trillion below its record of $306 trillion in the first quarter of 2022.
But persistently large budget deficits coupled with subdued economic growth have brought the emerging markets' debt-to-GDP ratio back to its record high of 254 per cent, last registered in the first quarter of 2021, the institute said.
Emerging market government debt topped 65 per cent of GDP in the third quarter, while the financial sector’s debt passed 40 per cent of GDP, according to IIF data.
Governments must take prudent measures to manage debt and their fiscal policies amid weaker global economic growth and tighter monetary policy to avoid future pain, the IMF said last month.
Managing current high levels of debt will become increasingly difficult with a rise in borrowing costs and weakening global growth, the Washington-based lender said at the time.
“More importantly, when you look at the projections from the IMF, the average debt-to-GDP for emerging markets is expected to rise from 65 per cent of GDP now, to about 80 per cent of GDP in 2027,” Mr Baqir said.
“There will be many countries that will be considerably above that average number of 80 per cent”, so the outlook for many of these economies is challenging as the level of public debt is expected to grow over the next five years, he said.
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
The biog
Name: Marie Byrne
Nationality: Irish
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption
Book: Seagull by Jonathan Livingston
Life lesson: A person is not old until regret takes the place of their dreams
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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BRIEF SCORES:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
La Mer lowdown
La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
Blonde
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The chef's advice
Troy Payne, head chef at Abu Dhabi’s newest healthy eatery Sanderson’s in Al Seef Resort & Spa, says singles need to change their mindset about how they approach the supermarket.
“They feel like they can’t buy one cucumber,” he says. “But I can walk into a shop – I feed two people at home – and I’ll walk into a shop and I buy one cucumber, I’ll buy one onion.”
Mr Payne asks for the sticker to be placed directly on each item, rather than face the temptation of filling one of the two-kilogram capacity plastic bags on offer.
The chef also advises singletons not get too hung up on “organic”, particularly high-priced varieties that have been flown in from far-flung locales. Local produce is often grown sustainably, and far cheaper, he says.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 10am:
Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang
Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)
Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)
Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas
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ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
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Naga
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
MATCH RESULT
Al Jazira 3 Persepolis 2
Jazira: Mabkhout (52'), Romarinho (77'), Al Hammadi (90' 6)
Persepolis: Alipour (42'), Mensha (84')
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
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Men’s singles
Group A: Son Wan-ho (Kor), Lee Chong Wei (Mas), Ng Long Angus (HK), Chen Long (Chn)
Group B: Kidambi Srikanth (Ind), Shi Yugi (Chn), Chou Tien Chen (Tpe), Viktor Axelsen (Den)
Women’s Singles
Group A: Akane Yamaguchi (Jpn), Pusarla Sindhu (Ind), Sayaka Sato (Jpn), He Bingjiao (Chn)
Group B: Tai Tzu Ying (Tpe), Sung Hi-hyun (Kor), Ratchanok Intanon (Tha), Chen Yufei (Chn)
TOUCH RULES
Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.
Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.
Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.
A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.
After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.
At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.
A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
RESULT
Wolves 1 (Traore 67')
Tottenham 2 (Moura 8', Vertonghen 90 1')
Man of the Match: Adama Traore (Wolves)
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
More on Quran memorisation:
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TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
