Global trade is expected to hit a new record of $32 trillion in 2022, increasing 12 per cent amid "resilient" demand for goods and services, before slowing down next year, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad).
Trade in goods is set to total almost $25 trillion, an increase of about 10 per cent from last year, Unctad said in its Global Trade Update report on Tuesday. Trade in services is expected to reach almost $7 trillion, up by about 15 per cent from last year.
"The volume of trade continued to increase throughout 2022, a signal of resilient global demand," Unctad said. "The substantial trade growth during the ... year was largely due to increases in the value of the trade of energy products."
The record trade figures forecast for the year are largely due to growth in the first half of this year. However, deteriorating economic conditions and rising uncertainties have resulted in a trade slow-down during the second half of this year, the UN body said.
During the third quarter, trade in goods declined by about 1 per cent compared with the previous quarter. By contrast, trade in services was more resilient with an increase of about 1.3 per cent during the same period.
The value of global trade is now projected to decrease in the fourth quarter both for goods and for services, Unctad said.
"The ongoing trade slowdown is expected to worsen for 2023. While the outlook for global trade remains uncertain, negative factors appear to outweigh positive trends," Unctad said.
Geopolitical frictions, persisting inflation, lower economic growth, higher prices of traded goods and record levels of debt will weigh on international commerce in the next year, the report showed.
"Economic growth forecasts for 2023 are being revised downwards due to high energy prices, rising interest rates, sustained inflation in many economies and negative global economic spillovers from the war in Ukraine," it said.
High energy prices and the continued rise in the prices of raw materials and consumers goods are expected to dampen demand for imports and lead to a decline in the volume of international trade, it added.
"The ongoing tightening of financial conditions is expected to further heighten pressure on highly indebted governments, amplifying vulnerabilities and negatively affecting investments and international trade flows," Unctad said.
Other factors that will impact international trade patterns next year are the high risks and uncertainties that remain for global supply chains as well as the world's transition to a greener economy.
"The efforts towards a greener global economy are expected to spur demand for environmentally sustainable products, while reducing the demand for goods with high carbon content and for fossil fuels energy. This shift will reflect into international trade patterns," the report said.
On the other hand, improvements in the logistics sector and regional trade agreements coming to fruition are among the positive factors that could provide momentum to international commerce.
"Ports and shipping companies have now adjusted to the challenges brought by the Covid-19 pandemic. New ships are entering service, and port congestion is being resolved. Freight and cargo rates are still higher than the pre-pandemic averages, but their trend is downwards," Unctad said.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
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Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
How to keep control of your emotions
If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.
Greed
Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.
Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.
Fear
The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.
Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.
Hope
While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.
Frustration
Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.
Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.
Boredom
Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.
Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Indian origin executives leading top technology firms
Sundar Pichai
Chief executive, Google and Alphabet
Satya Nadella
Chief executive, Microsoft
Ajaypal Singh Banga
President and chief executive, Mastercard
Shantanu Narayen
Chief executive, chairman, and president, Adobe
Indra Nooyi
Board of directors, Amazon and former chief executive, PepsiCo
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
