Global economic growth in 2023 is forecast to be as weak as in 2009 during the financial crisis as a result of the Ukraine conflict and its impact on the world economy, according to the Institute of International Finance.
The world economy is projected to grow 1.5 per cent next year, compared to 0.6 per cent in 2009, the IIF’s managing director and chief economist Robin Brooks and economists Jonathan Fortun and Jack Pingle said in a report on Thursday.
However, “true” growth — an annual average growth adjusted for statistical carryover from the previous year — is forecast to be 1.1 per cent in 2023, as compared to 1.3 per cent in 2009 amid the Great Recession that began a year earlier.
The IIF, the association for the global financial services industry, estimates global purchasing power parity-weighted statistical carryover at 0.4 per cent in 2023.
The annual average growth in 2009 was 0.6 per cent with a base effect of -0.7 per cent. The base effect was negative as the Great Recession began in 2008. As a result, “true” global growth in 2009 was 1.3 per cent, the report said
“Adjusting for base effects, we expect growth in 2023 to be as weak as 2009, with weakness radiating out from deep contractions in Russia and Ukraine to the rest of the world economy,” it said.
The Ukraine conflict, which began in late February, has affected global economic growth and led to higher oil prices, with Brent surging close to $140 per barrel in March.
The International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecast for next year, amid the Ukraine conflict, broadening inflation pressures and a slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy.
The fund maintained its global economic estimate for this year at 3.2 per cent but downgraded next year's forecast to 2.7 per cent — 0.2 percentage points lower than the July forecast. There is a 25 per cent probability that growth could fall below 2 per cent next year, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report released in October.
Ukraine’s economy will contract by 15 per cent next year, while Russia, which is under western sanctions, will shrink by 7 per cent, according to the IIF report.
The eurozone will contract by 2 per cent, after expanding by 2.7 per cent this year, while the US — the world’s largest economy — will grow by 1 per cent. Latin America’s economy is also forecast to grow by 1.2 per cent next year.
India, Asia’s third-largest economy will grow by 6 per cent, while China, the world’s second-largest economy, will expand by 4.6 per cent in 2023, as the country continues to ease Covid-19 curbs amid protests over the stringent pandemic rules.
Japan, the world's third largest economy, is projected to grow 1.5 per cent next year, following a 1.4 per cent expansion this year.
Unlike Ukraine, western carveouts of Russia’s energy exports led to large hard currency inflows there, which resulted in a sharp easing of financial conditions. This helped Moscow to avert a “steeper” GDP decline, according to the report.
“At a global level, our PPP-weighted aggregate shows “true” growth in 2023 to be slightly weaker than in 2009 with China and Latin America the most important growth drivers,” the IIF said.
“The coming global recession will be more severe in “true” growth terms than the great recession.”
The new report comes after the IIF warned in July that the risk of a global recession is “rising sharply” amid a combination of “shocks”, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the eurozone, Covid-19 pandemic-related uncertainty in China and the sharp tightening in US financial conditions.
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
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The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
