GCC economies are projected to grow 6.9 per cent in 2022 before moderating to 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent in 2023 and 2024, respectively, driven by stronger hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon industries, the World Bank has said.
The easing of coronavirus-induced movement and social restrictions, and positive developments in the hydrocarbon market drove strong recoveries in 2021 and 2022 across the six-member economic bloc, the Washington-based lender said in its Gulf Economic Update report released on Monday.
The increase in oil and gas prices, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, is estimated to provide a windfall for the GCC, it said.
“There is an excellent and timely opportunity to diversify the economy further using a green-growth strategy and play a leading role in the global transition to low-carbon economies,” said Issam Abousleiman, World Bank regional director for the GCC.
“The region could use the green-growth transition to focus policies on developing green technologies and associated skilled labour that would reverse trends in productivity and enable the region to grow faster.”
The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for 2023 and warned of a cost-of-living crisis as the world's economy continues to be affected by the war in Ukraine, broadening inflation pressures and a slowdown in China.
The fund maintained its global economic estimate for this year at 3.2 per cent but downgraded next year’s forecast to 2.7 per cent — 0.2 percentage points lower than the July forecast.
Middle East and Central Asia economies are forecast to grow 5 per cent this year before decelerating to 3.6 per cent in 2023, after expanding 4.5 per cent in 2021, the fund said earlier this month.
Total economic output of the GCC countries is projected to be about $2 trillion in 2022, according to the World Bank.
If the Gulf countries continue business as usual, the region’s combined gross domestic product will grow to $6tn by 2050, it said.
That figure could shoot up to more than $13tn by 2050 if Gulf countries adopt a green-growth strategy that accelerates economic diversification, the lender said.
“Supported by higher hydrocarbon prices, the GCC region is expected to register strong twin surpluses in 2022 and over the medium term,” the World Bank report said.
“The regional fiscal balance is projected to register a surplus of 5.3 per cent of GDP in 2022 — the first surplus since 2014 — while the external balance surplus is expected to reach 17.2 per cent of GDP.”
It is "critical" to invest the oil windfall in the GCC’s economic and environmental transition and increase the share of the private sector in investment and job creation, the World Bank said.
However, a reduction in oil output would not only raise the risk of slower economic growth but might also shrink the anticipated fiscal and external surpluses in the near-term, the lender warned.
Inflation is expected to pick up in 2022 in most GCC countries but remains much lower compared with other regions.
“After a period of low inflation and bouts of deflation, inflation is projected to reach 3.3 per cent during 2022 before moderating to 2.5 per cent in the medium term,” the report said.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is forecast to grow 8.3 per cent in 2022 before moderating to 3.7 per cent and 2.3 per cent in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
The oil sector will remain the main driver behind the kingdom’s economic growth.
The UAE, the Arab world’s second-largest economy, is estimated to grow 5.9 per cent in 2022 before moderating to 4.1 per cent in 2023 as slower global demand dampens expansion due to tightening financial conditions, according to the World Bank.
“Higher oil export volumes coupled with a revival in non-oil demand will support strong economic growth in 2022. This is further supported by a favourable business environment and world-class infrastructure [in the UAE],” the bank said.
Kuwait’s economic growth is forecast to accelerate to 8.5 per cent in 2022 before slowing to an average of 2.5 per cent in 2023 and 2024.
Qatar is forecast to grow 4 per cent this year on the back of a stronger hydrocarbon sector and the strengthening of the tourism sector as the country hosts the Fifa World Cup, which begins on November 20.
Bahrain’s growth is expected to improve to 3.8 per cent in 2022, mainly driven by the non-hydrocarbon sector, the full reopening of the economy and a more robust manufacturing sector.
Oman’s GDP growth is forecast to reach 4.5 per cent in 2022 before moderating to an average of 3.2 per cent in 2023 to 2024.
The economy’s recovery will be driven by energy prices, the expansion of oil and gas production and structural reforms, the World Bank said.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:
Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')
Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Company%20Profile
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