Wall Street's top banks expect a looming recession in the US and Europe as interest rates continue to rise sharply and the economic outlook weakens amid persistent geopolitical headwinds.
JP Morgan Chase chief executive, Jamie Dimon, and his counterpart at Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, believe the likelihood of a recession in the world’s biggest economy is increasing as the US Federal Reserve continues to increase its policy rate aggressively.
“There is no question that economic conditions, in my opinion, are going to tighten meaningfully from here,” Mr Solomon said at a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh on Tuesday
In the US, particularly in the last week or two, there has been a clear message from the Fed that it will continue on the current path of pushing policy rates to 4.5 per cent, with three-quarters of a percentage point rate increases, he said.
The Fed will then pause because there is a lag effect of these rate increases, and it will continue on the path “if they don't see real changes”.
“I think generally when you find yourself in an economic scenario like this, where inflation is embedded, it's very hard to get out of it without economic slowdown,” Mr Solomon said.
“We will likely have a recession in the US [and] going to have I think most likely a recession in Europe.”
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Goldman Sachs estimates the risk of a US recession in the next year at 35 per cent while Bloomberg analysts forecast 100 per cent. The Fed meets next week and is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for a fourth consecutive time as it vies to tame four-decade high inflation.
Annual headline inflation in the US was up 8.2 per cent in September, down from its peak of about 9 per cent in June but still near the highest levels since the early 1980s, the latest economic data indicates. Core inflation for the month was up 6.6 per cent from a year ago, the biggest 12-month gain since August 1982.
Mr Dimon said the world would know in six months if recession fears materialise, however, the bigger concern for him was geopolitical headwinds.
“The most important thing is the geopolitics around Russia and Ukraine, America and China, relationships of the western world,” Mr Dimon told delegates during a panel discussion.
“That to me would be far more concerning than whether there’s a mild or slightly severe recession.”
The session was attended by Yasir Al Rumayyan, governor of the kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, Khaldoon Al Mubarak, Mubadala Investment Company managing director and chief executive, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, Catherine MacGregor, chief executive of Italian energy company ENGIE and Stephen Schwarzman, chairman of Blackstone Group.
The FII, in its sixth attrition this year, comes amid the weakening global economic outlook, surging inflation, the war in Ukraine and elevated energy prices.
Opec+ this month took the decision to cut oil output by two million barrels per day to stabilise oil markets, a decision criticised by the US administration. Oil producers have rallied behind Saudi Arabia, which along with Russia leads the super group of crude producers, after ire from Washington over the decision to cap production.
Mr Dimon, however, said the two nations had been allies for the more than 75 years, and they would work out their differences, but media hype did not help.
“I can’t imagine any allies agreeing on everything and not having problems,” Mr Dimon said. “They will work it through and I’m comfortable folks on both sides are working through this.”
ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
6 UNDERGROUND
Director: Michael Bay
Stars: Ryan Reynolds, Adria Arjona, Dave Franco
2.5 / 5 stars
The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
FORSPOKEN
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Marvel's%20Spider-Man%202
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Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
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Starfield
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Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Company%20profile
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What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Messi 23' pen, 45 1', 48', Busquets 85')
Celta Vigo 1 (Olaza 42')
More on Quran memorisation:
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
England v South Africa schedule:
- First Test: At Lord's, England won by 219 runs
- Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
- Third Test: The Oval, London, July 27-31, 2pm
- Fourth Test: Old Trafford, Manchester, August 4-8
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
RESULT
Manchester City 1 Sheffield United 0
Man City: Jesus (9')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
