The US and global economy are facing “serious” headwinds and are probably heading for a recession in the next six to nine months, JP Morgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said.
Mr Dimon cited a number of factors — including soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increases and the war in Ukraine — as to why he believes the US will be plunged into a financial crisis by the middle of next year.
“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the US and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the US in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Mr Dimon said told CNBC on Monday.
The warning comes as the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for 2023 and warned of a cost-of-living crisis as the global economy continues to be affected by the war in Ukraine, broadening inflation pressures and a slowdown in China.
“The likely place you’re going to see more of a crack and maybe a little bit more of a panic is in credit markets, and it might be ETFs [exchange-traded funds], it might be a country, it might be something you don’t suspect,” Mr Dimon said.
“If you make a list of all the prior crises, sitting here we would not have predicted where they came from, though I think you could predict this time that it probably will happen. So if I was out there, I’d be very cautious. If you need money, go raise it.”
Mr Dimon said the S&P 500, down nearly 25 per cent this year, “may have a ways to go” in its decline.
“The next 20 per cent will be much more painful than the first,” he said.
In an effort to tamp down on inflation, the Fed has taken unprecedented action by enacting interest rate rises of 75 basis points in three successive meetings. Last month's decision brought the central bank's short-term interest rate to 3-3.25 per cent.
The Federal Open Market Committee indicated that it was willing to raise its benchmark rate to 4.4 per cent by year's end, signalling that more interest rate increases are coming. But Mr Dimon said further action will hurt businesses.
“Rates going up another 100 basis points are a lot more painful than the first 100 because people aren’t used to it,” Mr Dimon said.
Recent government figures have shown that the US reported modest job growth last month, and though numbers were down from August, it was still strong enough to deter the Fed from easing off on its interest rate increases.
And consumer prices rose by 8.3 per cent in August, showing that consumers in the country are still facing higher costs of goods. The Bureau of Labour Statistics is expected to release the Consumer Price Index for the month of September on Thursday.
Bloomberg contributed to this report
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Infiniti QX80 specs
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Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
The Cairo Statement
1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
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Sustainable Development Goals
1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages
4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all
5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls
6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all
9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation
10. Reduce inequality within and among countries
11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns
13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects
14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development
15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
