The global economy needs decisive monetary policy action from central banks around the world to minimise risks stemming from the highest inflation in decades, which is threatening global economic momentum, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
Both the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine were "unique events in many respects” and “stress-tested” the monetary policy frameworks and strategies, IMF first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath said on Friday.
The pandemic and war could cause structural shifts and the current period of very high inflation poses a significant risk that inflation expectations could become de-anchored.
The two events may increase supply shock volatility and could make potential output and employment more difficult to forecast.
“Such developments, if they materialise, would pose more difficult trade-offs for central banks,” Ms Gopinath said at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium in the US.
“I’ll argue that central banks must move decisively today to avoid the risk of de-anchoring, and that global policies should push forward on the Paris climate agenda and support the expansion of diversified global trade.”
Geopolitical and economic uncertainty is mounting around the world amid a multitude of factors that have significantly slowed growth momentum.
In July, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for the global economy for the second time this year, due to Russia’s war in Ukraine that has fuelled inflationary pressures and derailed the momentum of the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Worsening supply chain disruptions, higher commodity prices and a slowing Chinese economy have also added to economic uncertainty.
The IMF now projects global growth at 3.2 per cent in 2022 and 2.9 per cent in 2023, after a 6.1 per cent expansion last year.
The fund warned if more risks materialise and inflation rises further, global growth could decline to about 2.6 per cent and 2 per cent this year and next, respectively, which would put growth in the bottom 10 per cent of outcomes since 1970.
The Washington-based fund estimates inflation to average 8.3 per cent globally this year, with an aggregate of 6.6 per cent in advanced economies and 9.5 per cent across emerging market and developing economies.
A four-decade high inflation in the US as well as the UK and a similar trajectory in major European economies has led central banks to increase interest rates sharply.
In July, the US Federal Reserve increased the policy rate by 75 basis points after a larger-than-expected three quarters percentage point in June. It was the Fed's fourth interest rate increase in four months and the biggest since 1994.
Most banks around the world, including those in the six-member economic bloc of GCC have also followed suite and increased their benchmark rates.
With higher energy prices further fuelling inflation, central banks are now pushing for aggressive monetary tightening that has now stoked fears of a global recession.
Ms Gopinath said, while “running the economy hot” — being more tolerant of higher inflation — can indeed have important benefits, and is sometimes appropriate, “we need to rethink the benefits and costs in light of the more evident inflation risks”.
The “robustness of policy strategies” including running the economy hot and looking through temporary supply shocks, should be revisited, she said.
Better models of aggregate supply — including those that take more account of capacity constraints at the sectoral level — are also needed, and will help in refining policy strategies. she added.
“I am hopeful that central banks will succeed in bringing inflation back to target in the next couple years,” Ms Gopinath said.
“But with inflation running at multi-decade highs and some measures of inflation expectations flashing red, the risks of de-anchoring are significant.”
Wallabies
Updated team: 15-Israel Folau, 14-Dane Haylett-Petty, 13-Reece Hodge, 12-Matt Toomua, 11-Marika Koroibete, 10-Kurtley Beale, 9-Will Genia, 8-Pete Samu, 7-Michael Hooper (captain), 6-Lukhan Tui, 5-Adam Coleman, 4-Rory Arnold, 3-Allan Alaalatoa, 2-Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1-Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16-Folau Faingaa, 17-Tom Robertson, 18-Taniela Tupou, 19-Izack Rodda, 20-Ned Hanigan, 21-Joe Powell, 22-Bernard Foley, 23-Jack Maddocks.
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: Eghel De Pine, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Sheaar, Szczepan Mazur, Saeed Al Shamsi
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA) Group 3 Dh500,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Torch, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (TB) Listed Dh380,000 1,600m | Winner: Forjatt, Chris Hayes, Nicholas Bachalard
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,400m | Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Ridha ben Attia
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Qader, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roaulle
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E51%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20in%20the%20UAE%20feel%20like%20they%20are%20failing%20within%20the%20first%20year%20of%20parenthood%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E57%25%20vs%2043%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20is%20the%20number%20of%20mothers%20versus%20the%20number%20of%20fathers%20who%20feel%20they%E2%80%99re%20failing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E28%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20believe%20social%20media%20adds%20to%20the%20pressure%20they%20feel%20to%20be%20perfect%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E55%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20cannot%20relate%20to%20parenting%20images%20on%20social%20media%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E67%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20wish%20there%20were%20more%20honest%20representations%20of%20parenting%20on%20social%20media%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E53%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20admit%20they%20put%20on%20a%20brave%20face%20rather%20than%20being%20honest%20due%20to%20fear%20of%20judgment%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cspan%20style%3D%22font-size%3A%2014px%3B%22%3ESource%3A%20YouGov%3C%2Fspan%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Monster
Directed by: Anthony Mandler
Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington
3/5
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%20%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Steffi%20Niederzoll%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Reyhaneh%20Jabbari%2C%20Shole%20Pakravan%2C%20Zar%20Amir%20Ebrahimi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
if you go
