A blowout US jobs report for July means the Federal Reserve will probably need to keep going with the most aggressive rate rises in decades to curb demand and inflation, economists say.
US employers added 528,000 jobs last month, more than all estimates, the unemployment rate fell to a five-decade low of 3.5 per cent, and wage growth accelerated, the Labour Department said.
“The good news is people can get jobs, the bad news is that inflation remains too high and our number one priority is to get that down,” San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said on Friday on Fox News.
The data added impetus for the Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates by 75 basis points when it meets in September. This matches the moves it made in June and July as it works to cool an inflation rate that is running at a 40-year high.
The strong momentum could also suggest the central bank will need to keep rates higher for longer, contrary to market expectations for rate cuts in 2023.
The labour market is “still sizzling” and that can feed into inflation, said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG. “This argues for another 75 basis point hike by the Fed.”
Fed chairman Jerome Powell said last week that another large rate increase at the September meeting was possible. However, he gave no specific forward guidance and said future increases would depend on data. Investors interpreted the remarks as a pivot to a less aggressive posture and markets rallied in response.
Fed presidents this week have strongly countered that impression. They argued that the central bank was not intending a pivot away from aggressive increase and that it would take significant news to alter their position.
Friday’s jobs data, while important, was only one of four critical reports that will shape the FOMC decision next month. There will be one more employment print and two consumer-price index readouts, with the July data out on August 10. That report should show slowing inflation because of plunging gas and commodities prices.
“If we get to September with things being where they are today — and that’s a big if — 75 basis points and signals of the risk of another 75 basis points, that’s what you’ll see,” said Mohamed El Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz.
Ultimately, it is the inflation data, which could also be affected by falling commodity prices and supply-chain improvements, that will decide the September move, said Julia Coronado, co-founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a former Fed economist.
The jobs data “would lean in favour of either a 75 basis-point hike or a longer hiking cycle, because we are not seeing moderating job growth", she said.
Ms Daly, who is not a voter on this year’s policy-setting committee, on Friday echoed remarks made earlier this week when she indicated she preferred a 50-basis-point increase in September.
“We don’t need to be too aggressive because we do already see signs of slowing,” Ms Daly said. “Interest rates rise, but it takes a while for them to move fully through the economy.”
“The July jobs report settles it — we are not in a recession. More importantly, it also means the Fed will likely have to hike by another 75 basis points in September. Hiring was broad-based across sectors, and there was no evidence of widespread layoffs," Bloomberg US economists said.
"The labour market has tightened even further from a high starting point. If there was any question of a dovish Fed pivot, this report has quashed it.”
Yields on two-year Treasuries surged in response to the jobs report, a reflection of the expected Fed rates over that period. Market pricing indicated a 75 basis-point increase to the Fed’s key rate is now seen as a more likely outcome at the central bank’s September meeting than 50 basis points.
Mr Powell has described the labour market as “tight to an unhealthy level". He has therefore been seeking a moderation to help to bring demand for products and services more in line with supplies that have been constrained by Covid-19 disruptions.
He and other Fed leaders are worried about the potential for a wage-price spiral, with higher wages feeding into inflation in a cycle that is hard to break.
“This number is so comprehensively strong with a pretty significant uptick in wages,” said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at MBB Capital Partners in Chicago.
“Companies are paying up for labour. Income matters most. When you look at the breadth of the employment report, and the earnings, this is an enormous tailwind for income.”
The upper bound of the Fed’s benchmark is now at 2.5 per cent. Policy makers will have to ensure the target rate to the region is at 4 per cent and hold it there for some time to quell inflation and price expectations, said Randall Kroszner, a former governor at the central bank.
“You’ve really got to make sure that inflation and inflation expectations have come down and are out of the system,” said Mr Kroszner, an economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
After the jobs report, he said that a 75 basis-point increase “will be on the table for the next meeting".
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
More on animal trafficking
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Pakistan T20 series squad
Sarfraz Ahmed (captain), Fakhar Zaman, Ahmed Shahzad, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Mohammed Hafeez, Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Mohammed Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Hasan Ali, Amir Yamin, Mohammed Amir (subject to fitness clearance), Rumman Raees, Usman Shinwari, Umar Amin
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULT
Manchester United 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Man United: Sanchez (24' ), Herrera (62')
Spurs: Alli (11')
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Profile
Co-founders of the company: Vilhelm Hedberg and Ravi Bhusari
Launch year: In 2016 ekar launched and signed an agreement with Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi. In January 2017 ekar launched in Dubai in a partnership with the RTA.
Number of employees: Over 50
Financing stage: Series B currently being finalised
Investors: Series A - Audacia Capital
Sector of operation: Transport
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
The essentials
What: Emirates Airline Festival of Literature
When: Friday until March 9
Where: All main sessions are held in the InterContinental Dubai Festival City
Price: Sessions range from free entry to Dh125 tickets, with the exception of special events.
Hot Tip: If waiting for your book to be signed looks like it will be timeconsuming, ask the festival’s bookstore if they have pre-signed copies of the book you’re looking for. They should have a bunch from some of the festival’s biggest guest authors.
Information: www.emirateslitfest.com
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000, 2,400m
Winner: Recordman, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000, 2,200m
Winner: AF Taraha, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000, 1,400m
Winner: Dhafra, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000, 1,400m
Winner: Maqam, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000, 1,600m
Winner: AF Momtaz, Fernando Jara, Musabah Al Muhairi
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000, 1,600m
Winner: Optimizm, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
Dunbar
Edward St Aubyn
Hogarth
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania
Verdict: 4 Stars
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
RESULT
Manchester City 5 Swansea City 0
Man City: D Silva (12'), Sterling (16'), De Bruyne (54' ), B Silva (64' minutes), Jesus (88')
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
