Fitch Ratings lowered Ukraine's credit score after the war-torn nation started the formal process of restructuring $22.8 billion in sovereign debt and deferring payments on external bonds.
The country's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating was lowered to C from CCC — only one step before default — the New York-based agency said on Friday. The protracted war is delivering "severe stresses" to Ukraine's macroeconomy, financial position and public and external finances, it added.
Fitch viewed this as the beginning of a distressed debt exchange (DDE) process, consistent with its ratings. The company's sovereign criteria cites that a commercial debt restructuring that entails a material reduction in terms, such as the deferral of interest or principal, and is necessary to avoid a traditional payment default constitutes a DDE.
The agency said severe stresses necessitate debt restructuring, and "even if not accepted, Fitch considers that the risk of missed payments or initiation of an alternative DDE process is high as the government seeks to preserve liquidity in the face of acute military spending pressure".
"More generally, we expect [that] a broader restructuring of the government's commercial debt will be required, although the timing remains uncertain," Fitch said.
Kyiv on Wednesday filed a formal request, asking bondholders to agree to a two-year payment freeze and changes to coupons on its so-called GDP warrants by the middle of next month. The country's finance ministry said it “received explicit indications of support” for the plan.
Ukraine's economy is being ravaged by its conflict with Russia, which began in February. Institutes including Ukraine's economy ministry and the Kyiv School of Economics in June have pegged economic losses between $564bn and $600bn, which is almost four times the nation's annual gross domestic product.
The eastern European country's economy is projected to shrink by about 45 per cent this year, but the magnitude of the contraction will depend on the duration and intensity of the war, the World Bank said.
The International Institute of Finance had a more conservative estimate, saying that Ukraine's economy will shrink about 35 per cent this year, with the monthly fiscal gap seen between $3bn to $10bn.
Fitch sees Ukraine's 2022 economic decline at 33 per cent, with the damage to infrastructure alone at $100bn, or about three quarters of GDP. Kyiv has projected that reconstruction needs over the next decade will be at $750bn.
The economy of Russia, on the other hand, has already plunged into a deep recession, having been hit by unprecedented international sanctions, with output projected to diminish more than 11.2 per cent this year, it added.
The conflict also goes beyond the two countries as economies elsewhere, including emerging and developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, are feeling its negative effects.
Fitch anticipates the war will continue well into 2023, and any negotiated political settlement will remain weak, because Kyiv is unlikely to cede any substantial territory lost to Russia.
'At the same time, it is not clear either side will have sufficient military superiority to deliver on objectives, which could result in a long-drawn conflict," it added.
Only a gradual economic recovery is expected. After the massive contraction expected in 2022, a modest 4 per cent recovery is projected next year, taking into consideration the limitations of seaport access, which prevents the start of any large-scale rebuilding.
However, there has been some sequential pick-up in economic activity since the early stages of the invasion, and the share of pre-war output from territory in which there is currently conflict has fallen to an estimated 12 per cent, Fitch noted.
War-related expenditure drove Ukraine's fiscal deficit to an average of $4bn in the second quarter of 2022, and Fitch is expecting a full-year general government deficit of 29.1 per cent of GDP — a record high for the country. The deficit is expected to remain substantial at around 22 per cent of GDP next year.
Foreign-exchange reserves fell by almost a quarter to $22.8bn at the end of June from $28.1bn at end of March. Inflation, meanwhile, hastened to 21.5 per cent in June, and Fitch expects this to surge to 30 per cent by the end of the year, partly due to the hryvnia's depreciation.
"The ability to meet Ukraine's extremely large financing need into 2023 largely depends on multilateral and bilateral support, which is currently uncertain; and we judge that debt restructuring is a probable condition of continued external support on such a scale," Fitch said.
European ratings agency Scope also downgraded Ukraine's credit score to C. Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings rate Ukraine as Caa3 and CCC+, respectively.
THURSDAY'S FIXTURES
4pm Maratha Arabians v Northern Warriors
6.15pm Deccan Gladiators v Pune Devils
8.30pm Delhi Bulls v Bangla Tigers
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3EFounder%3A%20Hani%20Abu%20Ghazaleh%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20with%20an%20office%20in%20Montreal%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%202018%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Virtual%20Reality%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%241.2%20million%2C%20and%20nearing%20close%20of%20%245%20million%20new%20funding%20round%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
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EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The biog
Favourite pet: cats. She has two: Eva and Bito
Favourite city: Cape Town, South Africa
Hobby: Running. "I like to think I’m artsy but I’m not".
Favourite move: Romantic comedies, specifically Return to me. "I cry every time".
Favourite spot in Abu Dhabi: Saadiyat beach
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
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What is an ETF?
An exchange traded fund is a type of investment fund that can be traded quickly and easily, just like stocks and shares. They come with no upfront costs aside from your brokerage's dealing charges and annual fees, which are far lower than on traditional mutual investment funds. Charges are as low as 0.03 per cent on one of the very cheapest (and most popular), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, with the maximum around 0.75 per cent.
There is no fund manager deciding which stocks and other assets to invest in, instead they passively track their chosen index, country, region or commodity, regardless of whether it goes up or down.
The first ETF was launched as recently as 1993, but the sector boasted $5.78 billion in assets under management at the end of September as inflows hit record highs, according to the latest figures from ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five largest providers BlackRock’s iShares, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisers, Deutsche Bank X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While the best-known track major indices such as MSCI World, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, you can also invest in specific countries or regions, large, medium or small companies, government bonds, gold, crude oil, cocoa, water, carbon, cattle, corn futures, currency shifts or even a stock market crash.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETamer%20Ruggli%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadine%20Labaki%2C%20Fanny%20Ardant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Recycle Reuse Repurpose
New central waste facility on site at expo Dubai South area to handle estimated 173 tonne of waste generated daily by millions of visitors
Recyclables such as plastic, paper, glass will be collected from bins on the expo site and taken to the new expo Central Waste Facility on site
Organic waste will be processed at the new onsite Central Waste Facility, treated and converted into compost to be re-used to green the expo area
Of 173 tonnes of waste daily, an estimated 39 per cent will be recyclables, 48 per cent organic waste and 13 per cent general waste.
About 147 tonnes will be recycled and converted to new products at another existing facility in Ras Al Khor
Recycling at Ras Al Khor unit:
Plastic items to be converted to plastic bags and recycled
Paper pulp moulded products such as cup carriers, egg trays, seed pots, and food packaging trays
Glass waste into bowls, lights, candle holders, serving trays and coasters
Aim is for 85 per cent of waste from the site to be diverted from landfill
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
ENGLAND%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGoalkeepers%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pickford%20(Everton)%2C%20Pope%20(Newcastle)%2C%20Ramsdale%20(Arsenal)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDefenders%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chilwell%20(Chelsea)%2C%20Dier%20(Tottenham)%2C%20Guehi%20(Crystal%20Palace)%2C%20James%20(Chelsea)%2C%20Maguire%20(Man%20United)%2C%20Shaw%20(Man%20United)%2C%20Stones%20(Man%20City)%2C%20Trippier%20(Newcastle)%2C%20Walker%20(Man%20City)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMidfielders%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBellingham%20(Dortmund)%2C%20Gallagher%20(Chelsea)%2C%20Henderson%20(Liverpool)%2C%20Maddison%20(Leicester)%2C%20Mount%20(Chelsea)%2C%20Phillips%20(Man%20City)%2C%20Declan%20Rice%20(West%20Ham)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EForwards%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFoden%20(Man%20City)%2C%20Grealish%20(Man%20City)%2C%20Kane%20(Tottenham)%2C%20Rashford%20(Man%20United)%2C%20Saka%20(Arsenal)%2C%20Toney%20(Brentford)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
