As traders absorb the tragic news of the death of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, they are also left facing a debate about how the loss of a strong advocate of the central bank’s super-easy monetary policy could affect markets in the days to come.
The initial market reaction to the shock news on Friday that Abe had been shot was a rush to haven assets.
The yen climbed alongside Treasuries, with the currency rising as much as 0.5 per cent against the US dollar as details filtered through about the shocking attack in the western city of Nara during campaigning for Sunday’s national election.
While some market strategists suggested the yen could extend gains and weigh on stocks should Abe's passing hasten a rethink of central bank policy, economists largely expect the impact to be limited.
Abe had been a key supporter of Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s policy of maintaining rock-bottom interest rates to support economic growth and had recently described the central bank as a subsidiary of the government.
“Abe was well known outside Japan and foreign investors have seen him positively,” said Masahiro Yamaguchi, a senior market analyst at SMBC Trust Bank.
“It could be negative for markets if the government’s policy, including its stance on monetary easing, is affected, as it was evident that he was pulling the strings behind the scenes in many ways.”
While Prime Minister Fumio Kishida distanced himself from Abe’s subsidiary remark, he has continued to support the central bank's policy that first emerged under Abe.
The US Federal Reserve’s acceleration of interest rate increases and European Central Bank preparations to follow suit have put the BoJ a long way out of sync with global peers.
That has put pressure on Mr Kuroda and tested the resolve of a government worried about yen weakness and popular discontent over rising prices.
The outlier stance has contributed to this year’s sharp slide in the yen to a 24-year low against the dollar. It has also led to waves of upward pressure on the central bank’s 0.25 per cent cap on 10-year government debt.
However, the shock assassination of Abe is causing some observers to reassess where the yen, equities and credit markets may head next, given his clout in political circles and stance on monetary policy.
“This may have an impact in the medium to long term, and the markets will see a considerable appreciation of the yen and a decline in stock prices,” said Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior market analyst at Matsui Securities.
“Abe had been supporting Bank of Japan governor Kuroda. The bank’s policy could change as they would lose that backing.”
However, economists largely argue that any impact will be limited. Some of them say the continuation of the central bank's stimulus stance after Abe stood down as prime minister in 2020 shows it was no longer dependent on his support.
During the campaign for Sunday’s upper-house election, Mr Kishida has made the case that higher interest rates would hurt “mom-and-pop” shops and homeowners even more.
“It is very unlikely this will open the door for the BoJ to raise rates or change its easing course to be on the same page as the Fed and the ECB,” said Shinichiro Kobayashi, a senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting.
“Kishida has already established his own economic agenda and has supported the BoJ at least so far. Abe wasn’t the reason the BoJ has stuck with keeping rates very low.”
Abe hand-picked Mr Kuroda for the post of central bank chief back in 2013, when he launched his “Abenomics” platform to revive Japan’s flagging economy through unprecedented monetary easing, flexible fiscal spending and regulatory reforms.
This may have an impact in the medium to long term, and the markets will see a considerable appreciation of the yen and a decline in stock prices
Tomoichiro Kubota,
senior market analyst at Matsui Securities
Those policies, including a commitment to achieve stable 2 per cent inflation, have largely stayed in place even after Abe stepped down.
Mr Kuroda strongly believes that accomplishing the 2 per cent target will help Japan to emerge from deflation and revive its economy, and will continue the current easing until he sees clear signs of sustainable inflation or economic growth, said Yuki Masujima, an economist at Bloomberg Economics.
“We can say that Kuroda is his own man,” Mr Masujima said.
Still, Abe's death guarantees traders will be extra sensitive to the election results, especially if support for the government is eroded by the cost-of-living crisis, according to Valentin Marinov, a strategist at Credit Agricole in London.
“While not our central scenario, potential losses for the LDP [Liberal Democratic Party] could encourage PM Kishida to nominate a less dovish BoJ governor as the process to replace Kuroda kicks off in earnest in the second half of 2022,” Mr Marinov said.
“In turn, this could encourage markets to start expecting a policy rethink perhaps later this year.”
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The years Ramadan fell in May
MATCH INFO
Championship play-offs, second legs:
Aston Villa 0
Middlesbrough 0
(Aston Villa advance 1-0 on aggregate)
Fulham 2
Sessegnon (47'), Odoi (66')
Derby County 0
(Fulham advance 2-1 on aggregate)
Final
Saturday, May 26, Wembley. Kick off 8pm (UAE)
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2A)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7-inch%20flexible%20Amoled%2C%202%2C412%20x%201%2C080%2C%20394ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%20Corning%20Gorilla%20Glass%205%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MediaTek%20Dimensity%207%2C200%20Pro%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F12GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20Nothing%20OS%202.5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2050MP%20main%2C%20f%2F1.88%20%2B%2050MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3B%20OIS%2C%20EIS%2C%20auto-focus%2C%20ultra%20XDR%2C%20night%20mode%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2060fps%3B%20slo-mo%20full-HD%20at%20120fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032MP%20wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2C000mAh%3B%2050%25%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2045-watt%20charger%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Google%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fingerprint%2C%20face%20unlock%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP54%2C%20limited%20protection%20from%20water%2Fdust%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual-nano%20SIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%2C%20milk%2C%20white%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nothing%20Phone%20(2a)%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%20pre-applied%20screen%20protector%2C%20Sim%20tray%20ejector%20tool%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%20(UAE)%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh1%2C199%20(8GB%2F128GB)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C399%20(12GB%2F256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More on Quran memorisation:
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bugatti Chiron Super Sport - the specs:
Engine: 8.0-litre quad-turbo W16
Transmission: 7-speed DSG auto
Power: 1,600hp
Torque: 1,600Nm
0-100kph in 2.4seconds
0-200kph in 5.8 seconds
0-300kph in 12.1 seconds
Top speed: 440kph
Price: Dh13,200,000
Bugatti Chiron Pur Sport - the specs:
Engine: 8.0-litre quad-turbo W16
Transmission: 7-speed DSG auto
Power: 1,500hp
Torque: 1,600Nm
0-100kph in 2.3 seconds
0-200kph in 5.5 seconds
0-300kph in 11.8 seconds
Top speed: 350kph
Price: Dh13,600,000
Volunteers offer workers a lifeline
Community volunteers have swung into action delivering food packages and toiletries to the men.
When provisions are distributed, the men line up in long queues for packets of rice, flour, sugar, salt, pulses, milk, biscuits, shaving kits, soap and telecom cards.
Volunteers from St Mary’s Catholic Church said some workers came to the church to pray for their families and ask for assistance.
Boxes packed with essential food items were distributed to workers in the Dubai Investments Park and Ras Al Khaimah camps last week. Workers at the Sonapur camp asked for Dh1,600 towards their gas bill.
“Especially in this year of tolerance we consider ourselves privileged to be able to lend a helping hand to our needy brothers in the Actco camp," Father Lennie Connully, parish priest of St Mary’s.
Workers spoke of their helplessness, seeing children’s marriages cancelled because of lack of money going home. Others told of their misery of being unable to return home when a parent died.
“More than daily food, they are worried about not sending money home for their family,” said Kusum Dutta, a volunteer who works with the Indian consulate.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Results:
5pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic (PA) Prestige Dh 110,000 1.400m | Winner: AF Mouthirah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic (PA) Prestige Dh 110,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Saab, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Majd Al Gharbia, Saif Al Balushi, Ridha ben Attia
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (PA) Listed Dh 180,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Money To Burn, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap Dh 70,000 2,200m | Winner: AF Kafu, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 2,400m | Winner: Brass Ring, Fabrice Veron, Ismail Mohammed
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ASIAN%20RUGBY%20CHAMPIONSHIP%202024
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EResults%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EHong%20Kong%2052-5%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESouth%20Korea%2055-5%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EMalaysia%206-70%20Hong%20Kong%3Cbr%3EUAE%2036-32%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2021%2C%207.30pm%20kick-off%3A%20UAE%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EAt%20The%20Sevens%2C%20Dubai%20(admission%20is%20free).%3Cbr%3ESaturday%3A%20Hong%20Kong%20v%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Chatham House Rule
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable
organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on
following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders,
with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide
authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of
International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its
founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs
with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham
House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham
House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects
allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that
ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were
revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However,
most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to
policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate
change to health and food security.
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
