With the rise in energy and commodity prices globally and a widening current account deficit, Tunisia can ill afford delays in building national consensus on structural political and economic reforms key to unlocking International Monetary Fund assistance for its struggling economy.
At the heart of the economic transformation agenda is the government’s bid to secure $4 billion in funding from the IMF, which could help it steer the nation out of its worst economic and financial crisis.
However, the IMF funding requires President Kais Saied's administration to make tough and unpopular decisions, including freezing wages and cutting energy and food subsidies at a time when rising inflation has slashed spending power.
It is a delicate balancing act for Mr Saied's reform agenda as rising consumer prices fuel public discontent across the country, resulting in mass protests and countrywide labour strikes.
Earlier this month, Finance Minister Sihem Boughdiri said she expected to resume talks with the fund soon over the loan programme. In preparation, the government will begin to cut food and energy subsidies in 2023 and reduce the public wage bill by 5 per cent over the next three years.
However, the IMF has yet to indicate its willingness to agree to the loan programme with Tunisia.
“Tunisia is facing major structural challenges that result in deep macroeconomic disequilibria, a weak growth in spite of its strong potential, a high unemployment rate, weak investment and social inequality,” the Washington-based lender said after three days of meetings with Tunisian authorities in March.
“The impact of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are now adding to these structural challenges.”
The North African country is facing “stronger current-account outflows caused by higher global prices for commodities, such as oil and wheat,” Fitch Ratings said in a research note May.
“We expect the country to post a current account deficit of 8.4 per cent of gross domestic product in 2022 [up from 6.3 per cent in 2021],” the rating agency said.
Higher import prices have also stoked an already high inflation and raised the government’s subsidy bill.
“Partly as a result, we expect the fiscal deficit to widen to 8.5 per cent of GDP in 2022, from 7.8 per cent in 2021,” Fitch said.
The IMF projects Tunisia's economy to grow 2.2 per cent this year and inflation to rise to 7.7 per cent. The World Bank estimates GDP growth of 3 per cent this year.
Tunisia’s economic outlook remains highly uncertain as the economic rebound in 2021 was relatively moderate.
“Debt sustainability concerns remained acute” due to elevated fiscal deficits and financing needs, according to the World Bank.
The country's worsening political turmoil continues to hamper reform. Ahead of a referendum on constitutional reforms, Mr Saied dissolved parliament and took control of the country’s judiciary after firing 57 judges.
In March, Fitch cut Tunisia’s rating to “CCC”, from “B-", seven notches below investment grade and on par with El Salvador and Ethiopia.
The rating downgrade denotes a very high level of default risk relative to other issuers or obligations, mainly due to heightened fiscal and external liquidity threats.
The threats are a result of further delays in agreeing to a new IMF deal after the political changes of July 2021, when Mr Saied suspended parliament and dismissed the prime minister.
“Against this backdrop, it is difficult to imagine the government being able to commit credibly to reforms and implement the politically difficult prior actions needed to secure an IMF programme,” Patrick Curran, a senior economist at Tellimer Research, said.
The Tunisian government last month invited the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT), along with lawyers and human rights bodies, to participate in discussions to develop national consensus on constitutional and economic reforms.
However, the powerful UGTT has rejected government plans. Hundreds of thousands of Tunisian public sector employees participated in a march on on June 16 as part of a nationwide strike to demand an increase in salaries and protest against planned spending cuts and privatisation of public entities.
It is difficult to imagine the government being able to commit credibly to reforms and implement the politically difficult prior actions needed to secure an IMF programme
Patrick Curran,
senior economist at Tellimer Research
“The UGTT is, ultimately, big and powerful enough to bring the country to a halt if [Mr] Saied does not take its economic demands into consideration, which are fundamentally incompatible with the IMF’s likely reform requirements,” Mr Curran said.
“The constitutional referendum will keep [Mr] Saied on a collision course with the UGTT and opposition and will continue to absorb most of his bandwidth and political capital.”
The government was facing mounting pressure and will have to quickly find a solution as its debt is set to become unsustainable unless a strong and credible reform programme is adopted with broad support, Fitch said.
Tunisia’s government debt rose to 79.2 per cent of GDP in 2021, according to government estimates, lower than the 85.6 per cent initially projected in the 2021 budget.
“However, the trajectory moving forward is less favourable, given the expected widening of the deficit in 2022 and worsening of the real growth interest rate differential,” said Mr Curran, who forecast a sharp increase in central government debt to about 90 per cent of GDP this year.
“Even if Tunisia secures an IMF programme, there is a risk that its debt stock will be deemed unsustainable and that the IMF will be unable to provide financing without a debt restructuring,” he said.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Hunger%20Games%3A%20The%20Ballad%20of%20Songbirds%20%26%20Snakes
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The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
MATCH INFO
AC Milan v Inter, Sunday, 6pm (UAE), match live on BeIN Sports
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
Everton%20Fixtures
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz
Director: Kushan Nandy
Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami
Three stars
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The%20specs
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Joy%20Ride%20
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INFO
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Azizbek Satibaldiev (KYG). Round 1 KO
Featherweight: Izzeddin Farhan (JOR) beat Ozodbek Azimov (UZB). Round 1 rear naked choke
Middleweight: Zaakir Badat (RSA) beat Ercin Sirin (TUR). Round 1 triangle choke
Featherweight: Ali Alqaisi (JOR) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (UZB). Round 1 TKO
Featherweight: Abu Muslim Alikhanov (RUS) beat Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG). Unanimous decision
Catchweight 74kg: Mirafzal Akhtamov (UZB) beat Marcos Costa (BRA). Split decision
Welterweight: Andre Fialho (POR) beat Sang Hoon-yu (KOR). Round 1 TKO
Lightweight: John Mitchell (IRE) beat Arbi Emiev (RUS). Round 2 RSC (deep cuts)
Middleweight: Gianni Melillo (ITA) beat Mohammed Karaki (LEB)
Welterweight: Handesson Ferreira (BRA) beat Amiran Gogoladze (GEO). Unanimous decision
Flyweight (Female): Carolina Jimenez (VEN) beat Lucrezia Ria (ITA), Round 1 rear naked choke
Welterweight: Daniel Skibinski (POL) beat Acoidan Duque (ESP). Round 3 TKO
Lightweight: Martun Mezhlumyan (ARM) beat Attila Korkmaz (TUR). Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ray Borg (USA) beat Jesse Arnett (CAN). Unanimous decision
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Result
Crystal Palace 0 Manchester City 2
Man City: Jesus (39), David Silva (41)
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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8.
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Australia
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9.
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Team Angel Wolf Beach Blast takes place every Wednesday between 4:30pm and 5:30pm
