The UK economy contracted for the second month in a row in April, falling by 0.3 per cent, official figures showed on Monday.
It added to fears of a slowdown three days before the Bank of England announces the scale of its latest interest rate response to the surge in inflation.
All three main sectors suffered a fall in output for the first time since January 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
April’s drop in gross domestic product was also the biggest contraction since January 2021 and comes after a fall of 0.1 per cent in March.
However, households showed signs of resilience despite higher inflation. Consumer-facing industries expanded 2.6 per cent in the month, led by a strong rise in retail sales.
The figures may indicate that consumers are reacting slowly to a 54 per cent increase in energy bills that hit in April and a government increase in payrolls taxes. Recent data point to households cutting back on non-essentials items.
An extra bank holiday for Queen Elizabeth II’s platinum jubilee means Britain may dodge a technical recession — two consecutive quarters of falling output — but it could come close.
This marks the third month in which GDP has not grown, a clear sign that the economy is weakening rapidly in the face of inflationary pressures.
The precarious state of the economy presents a headache for both Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
With inflation set to peak in double digits in October, when energy bills are due to surge again, Mr Bailey and his colleagues have little option but to keep raising interest rates, even if means making the cost of living crisis worse in the short run.
They are worried about the risk of a 1970s wage-price spiral unless inflation is brought under control.
Policymakers are expected to deliver a fifth straight rate increase on Thursday. A quarter-point move, as forecast, would take the benchmark rate to 1.25 per cent, the highest since 2009, and money markets are now pricing in rates climbing above 3 per cent next year.
April’s data showed output contracted by 0.3 per cent in the main services sector, largely due to the ending of the government’s Covid-19 Test-and-Trace programme and lower vaccination activity.
With the impact of the programme and vaccines stripped out, GDP would have risen by 0.1 per cent in April, the ONS said.
But there were also declines in the manufacturing and construction sectors, down 1 per cent and 0.4 per cent in April respectively, with manufacturers, in particular, noting the impact of increasing prices and supply chain woes.
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “A big drop in the health sector due to the winding down of the test and trace scheme pushed the UK economy into negative territory in April.
“Manufacturing also suffered with some companies telling us they were being affected by rising fuel and energy prices.
“These were partially offset by growth in car sales, which recovered from a significantly weaker-than-usual March.”
Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at online investment platform Bestinvest, said: “The latest GDP data from the ONS intensifies the likelihood of the UK heading for a prolonged period of stagflation — where an economy simultaneously experiences stagnant or low economic growth and high inflation.
“With inflation hitting 9 per cent in April and expected to hit double digits in the fourth quarter, amid surging food, fuel and energy prices, it is only natural to expect households to rein in their spending as they strive to meet their monthly financial obligations,” she said.
“Low consumer sentiment was evident in the run-up to the weekend when the ONS Opinions and Lifestyle Survey found that 77 per cent of adults reported feeling worried about rising costs of living with women, people with disabilities and those on low incomes particularly concerned about how to meet their household bills.”
The latest ONS figures add weight to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's recent gloomy outlook that the UK economy will grind to a halt next year amid rampant inflation and tax rises and become the worst-performing country in the G20, apart from Russia, which is hobbled by western sanctions, Ms Haine said.
Environment Secretary George Eustice, the government minister on the daily media round, conceded that there are “some real challenges ahead”.
Mr Eustice was asked on Sky News whether it was time for the government to “stop maintaining that this is the fastest-growing economy in the G7”.
He pointed to the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain pressures as causes of the decline.
“We have known for some time this was going to be a challenge,” he said.
“We have got unemployment that is at record lows, the lowest it has been since 1974, but, of course, there are some real challenges ahead and these GDP figures are a reminder of those challenges.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Iraq negotiating over Iran sanctions impact
- US sanctions on Iran’s energy industry and exports took effect on Monday, November 5.
- Washington issued formal waivers to eight buyers of Iranian oil, allowing them to continue limited imports. Iraq did not receive a waiver.
- Iraq’s government is cooperating with the US to contain Iranian influence in the country, and increased Iraqi oil production is helping to make up for Iranian crude that sanctions are blocking from markets, US officials say.
- Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumped last month at a record 4.78 million barrels a day, former Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi said on Oct. 20. Iraq exported 3.83 million barrels a day last month, according to tanker tracking and data from port agents.
- Iraq has been working to restore production at its northern Kirkuk oil field. Kirkuk could add 200,000 barrels a day of oil to Iraq’s total output, Hook said.
- The country stopped trucking Kirkuk oil to Iran about three weeks ago, in line with U.S. sanctions, according to four people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified because they aren’t allowed to speak to media.
- Oil exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest supplier, have slumped since President Donald Trump announced in May that he’d reimpose sanctions. Iran shipped about 1.76 million barrels a day in October out of 3.42 million in total production, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
- Benchmark Brent crude fell 47 cents to $72.70 a barrel in London trading at 7:26 a.m. local time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was 25 cents lower at $62.85 a barrel in New York. WTI held near the lowest level in seven months as concerns of a tightening market eased after the U.S. granted its waivers to buyers of Iranian crude.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company%20profile
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Most F1 world titles
7 — Michael Schumacher (1994, ’95, 2000, ’01 ’02, ’03, ’04)
7 — Lewis Hamilton (2008, ’14,’15, ’17, ’18, ’19, ’20)
5 — Juan Manuel Fangio (1951, ’54, ’55, ’56, ’57)
4 — Alain Prost (1985, ’86, ’89, ’93)
4 — Sebastian Vettel (2010, ’11, ’12, ’13)
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh1,100,000 (est)
Engine 5.2-litre V10
Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch
Power 630bhp @ 8,000rpm
Torque 600Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 15.7L / 100km (est)
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
The specs: 2018 Bentley Bentayga V8
Price, base: Dh853,226
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 550hp @ 6,000pm
Torque: 770Nm @ 1,960rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.4L / 100km
Match info
Deccan Gladiators 87-8
Asif Khan 25, Dwayne Bravo 2-16
Maratha Arabians 89-2
Chadwick Walton 51 not out
Arabians won the final by eight wickets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 290hp
Torque: 340Nm
Price: Dh155,800
On sale: now
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Astra%20Tech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdallah%20Abu%20Sheikh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20technology%20investment%20and%20development%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Copa del Rey
Semi-final, first leg
Barcelona 1 (Malcom 57')
Real Madrid (Vazquez 6')
Second leg, February 27
