The US Federal Reserve is on track for half-point interest rate increases in June, July and perhaps even beyond as fresh job market data on Friday showed no sign the US economy is buckling under the pressure of high inflation and rising borrowing costs.
A Labour Department report early on Friday showed US employers have added an average of 400,000 jobs each month since March, down from the nearly 600,000-per-month average pace from January 2021 to February of this year.
It is a downshift the Fed has reason to welcome, as it tries to tighten monetary policy fast enough to bring inflation down, but not so fast it triggers anything too drastic.
Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester called May's job gains "strong" but said the slowing trend was "a good thing".
"We want to see some moderation in both activity in growth and in the labour market to cool things off a little bit," Ms Mester told CNBC. "It's too soon to say that's going to change our outlook, or my outlook, for policy: the No 1 problem in the economy remains very, very high inflation."
Ms Mester said that unless she sees "compelling" evidence of falling inflation — now running at 40-year highs and more than triple the Fed's 2 per cent target — she will probably support yet another 50-basis point increase in September.
Stocks fell on Friday and traders bet the Fed will end up lifting the policy rate to a range of 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent by the year's end.
President Joe Biden said the data showed the economy was holding up, even as the labour market shifted to a more sustainable pace of job growth.
"We aren’t likely to see the kind of blockbuster job reports month after month like we had over this past year. But that’s a good thing. That’s a sign of a healthy economy,” Mr Biden said.
Many economists expected an even sharper slowdown, as tech firms announced layoffs or hiring freezes amid diving company stock prices, and on the assumption that consumers would begin scaling back given high inflation and rising food and energy bills.
"Payroll growth settled into a lower gear this spring but talk of an imminent recession is nothing more than fearmongering," wrote EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco, noting that the US is now less than one million jobs short of the peak level for non-farm payrolls hit just before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
"Anecdotal evidence of hiring freezes and layoffs at tech companies is misleading with overall job openings still near record-highs and layoffs at record-lows."
The annual pace of wage growth slowed slightly and the labour force grew by an additional 330,000 workers, both developments that Fed policymakers hope will continue.
The May jobs report is one of the last high-profile data points Fed officials will carry into the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 14 and 15, when they are expected to increase the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, to a target range of between 1.25 per cent and 1.5 per cent.
Absent a major shock, policymakers are anticipated to approve another half percentage point increase in July.
And on Thursday, Fed vice chairperson Lael Brainard said it was “very hard to see” a case for pausing rate hikes in September, although policymakers may opt to slow the pace of hikes to a quarter-point per meeting if inflation begins to ease.
The pace of annual growth in average hourly earnings has fallen now for three months running from 5.6 per cent in March to 5.2 per cent in May, but that is higher than Fed officials feel is consistent with a 2 per cent inflation rate, even accounting for productivity gains.
"It will take a slowdown ... to closer to 4 per cent before the Fed can claim it is making significant progress," said Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics.
The behaviour of the US job market is central to the Fed's hope to steer the economy out of a current bout of high inflation without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.
Hiring in May continued across industries, with some now pressing well beyond their pre-pandemic employment levels, and even leisure and hospitality firms climbing steadily back as spending shifts towards travel, entertainment, and other in-person services.
Data from time management firm UKG has shown hourly work activity slowing for 10 of the past 11 weeks, with individual worker data suggesting some of that came as stressed shift workers got relief from the overtime demands of last year, said UKG vice president Dave Gilbertson.
It was the sort of developing trend, he said, that could produce what the Fed says it wants – a gradual cooling of the labor market that begins to cut into the massive number of job vacancies without causing large layoffs.
"We are not seeing a wild drop-off. We are seeing a slight drop-off each of the last three months ... If companies are having hourly workers work just a few fewer shifts each of the past three months, that adds up to be something like the early stage of a soft landing in the labour markets,” he said.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Shafaf, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Noof KB, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Jim Crowley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Group One (PA) Dh2,500,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Mekhbat, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight Championship AJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
Major matches on Manic Monday
Andy Murray (GBR) v Benoit Paire (FRA)
Grigor Dimitrov (BGR) v Roger Federer (SUI)
Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Gilles Muller (LUX)
Adrian Mannarino (FRA) Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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RESULT
Bayer Leverkusen 2 Bayern Munich 4
Leverkusen: Alario (9'), Wirtz (89')
Bayern: Coman (27'), Goretzka (42'), Gnabry (45'), Lewandowski (66')
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Aahid Al Khalediah II, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Whistle, Harry Bentley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup - Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Alsaied, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mumayaza, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
8pm: President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Medahim, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Top financial tips for graduates
Araminta Robertson, of the Financially Mint blog, shares her financial advice for university leavers:
1. Build digital or technical skills: After graduation, people can find it extremely hard to find jobs. From programming to digital marketing, your early twenties are for building skills. Future employers will want people with tech skills.
2. Side hustle: At 16, I lived in a village and started teaching online, as well as doing work as a virtual assistant and marketer. There are six skills you can use online: translation; teaching; programming; digital marketing; design and writing. If you master two, you’ll always be able to make money.
3. Networking: Knowing how to make connections is extremely useful. Use LinkedIn to find people who have the job you want, connect and ask to meet for coffee. Ask how they did it and if they know anyone who can help you. I secured quite a few clients this way.
4. Pay yourself first: The minute you receive any income, put about 15 per cent aside into a savings account you won’t touch, to go towards your emergency fund or to start investing. I do 20 per cent. It helped me start saving immediately.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ASHES SCHEDULE
First Test
November 23-27 (The Gabba, Brisbane)
Second Test
December 2-6 (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide)
Third Test
December 14-18 (Waca Ground, Perth)
Fourth Test
December 26-30 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne)
Fifth Test
January 4-8, 2018 (Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney)
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
RESULT
Fifth ODI, at Headingley
England 351/9
Pakistan 297
England win by 54 runs (win series 4-0)
Notable groups (UAE time)
Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Henrik Stenson (12.47pm)
Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Louis Oosthuizen (12.58pm)
Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood (1.09pm)
Sergio Garcia, Jason Day, Zach Johnson (4.04pm)
Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, Adam Scott (4.26pm)
Dustin Johnson, Charl Schwartzel, Rory McIlroy (5.48pm)
Profile box
Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India
Origin
Dan Brown
Doubleday
88 Video's most popular rentals
Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.
Why seagrass matters
- Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
- Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
- Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
Results
6pm: Dubai Trophy – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Silent Speech, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby
(trainer)
6.35pm: Jumeirah Derby Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (T)
1,800m
Winner: Island Falcon, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Dirt)
1,400m
Winner: Rawy, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
7.45pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Desert Fire, Hector Crouch, Saeed bin Suroor
8.20pm: Al Fahidi Fort – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Naval Crown, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.55pm: Dubawi Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Al Tariq, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watsons
9.30pm: Aliyah – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Dubai Icon, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
Results
1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Al Suhooj, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Khalifa Al Neyadi (trainer)
2pm Handicap (TB) 68,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Mazagran, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
3pm Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Alla Mahlak, Adrie de Vries, Rashed Bouresly
4pm Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Hurry Up, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m
