Global action needed to prevent food crisis in Middle East and North Africa, warns IMF


Mustafa Alrawi
  • English
  • Arabic

Gathering international co-operation will be necessary to help prevent a food crisis in the Middle East and North Africa this year as the war in Ukraine drives prices higher and risks supply, the IMF’s regional director said.

On Wednesday, the fund released its Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook, which shows a divergent picture in 2022 for the region, with oil exporters such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia set to earn higher revenue this year compared with 2021, thanks to higher oil prices.

Uncertainty is also increasing with the duration of the war in Ukraine, a significant factor in how the rest of Mena will fare amid rising inflation and growing food insecurity.

Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, told the Business Extra podcast that co-operation is required at both the regional and global levels to increase access to food supply, especially for the most vulnerable nations such as Yemen, Sudan and Afghanistan.

“[Co-operation] should be at both levels; global in order to secure that supply is not constrained and allow those who are food-dependent countries to remain able to have access to these basic commodities. Co-operation is also very useful to reduce the impact of uncertainty on prices of those basic commodities,” said Mr Azour.

The IMF said higher wheat prices alone could increase external financing needs in the Middle East and Central Asia by up to $10 billion this year. Supply shortages originating in Russia and Ukraine – together accounting for about a quarter of global wheat exports – would endanger food security, particularly for low-income countries, which may also suffer from aid diversion, the fund said.

Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said priorities include reducing the level of youth unemployment. Victor Besa / The National
Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said priorities include reducing the level of youth unemployment. Victor Besa / The National

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation’s food price index shows sharp increases for grains, oils and other foodstuffs as exports from both Ukraine and Russia are affected.

It is crucial that all countries “fight inflation, because inflation is a tax that affects more the poor than the high-income people”, said Mr Azour. Last year, inflation ran at 14.8 per cent in Mena, the IMF said.

Low-income countries have very limited reserves of staple items, in terms of both duration and quantity, he said, which adds to the risk in these countries that rising prices will create social instability.

“Therefore, it’s very important to maintain global co-operation. And the role of institutions is important. It’s very important to provide also support to countries who need it,” Mr Azour said.

Throughout the region, this is also a moment “to improve social protection mechanisms, make them more targeted [and] allow the low-income groups to have at least the floor of social protection”.

In contrast, oil and gas exporters in the Middle East will benefit from higher energy prices, and their growth this year was projected by the IMF at 5.4 per cent versus 4.4 per cent and 1.1 per cent for middle and low-income countries, respectively.

Crude prices, which advanced to $140 per barrel last month after western sanctions were imposed on Russia over the war in Ukraine, remain at about $100 a barrel.

The successful Covid-19 vaccination programmes, labour market reforms and direct government support have helped put Gulf economies, including the UAE, on a very stable footing over the past year, Mr Azour said.

The IMF forecasts that in the next three to four years, reserves for oil and gas exporters will increase by more than $1 trillion.

“What is important going forward is to understand that this windfall is a very precious one that needs to be well invested,” said Mr Azour. “Those reserves need to be used to accelerate the diversification of the economy, reduce dependence on oil, become less procyclical [and] allow the private sector to lead growth.”

Iraq, as a large regional exporter that has also faced economic crises in recent years that have diminished opportunities and living standards for its citizens, has a unique opportunity, Mr Azour said.

“There is no moment to lose … it’s important to use this windfall to accelerate and to foster an economic transformation that Iraq needs,” he said. The country needs to maintain progress on two tracks: wisely using the resources that come with increasing oil prices but also making the necessary structural reforms for the medium term to diminish the impact of any volatility in oil prices, he said.

“It’s very important to improve the social infrastructure in Iraq, by having a better targeting of the social protection mechanisms by reforming the state, to provide better quality of services, including the social services that Covid-19 put under strain and under pressure,” Mr Azour said.

Uncertainty will remain a factor affecting the outlook for the region this year, amid inflation, conflict in Ukraine and rising unemployment, he said.

“Uncertainty brings volatility, the volatility in oil price, but also the volatility that we see, in the mood of investors. We saw, in the beginning of the year, some outflows from important emerging markets in the region, like, for example, in Egypt, and those are issues that we need to watch,” Mr Azour said.

Policymakers in Mena will be required to take decisive action as vulnerable groups experience another crisis after “the huge impact” of the pandemic, he added.

“There is a risk of social unrest that calls for adapting or changing or improving the way fiscal policies are conducted, both on the expenditure side, to focus more on social protection, and also on the revenue side, to increase equity, and also to have the capacity to get additional resources to redistribute better [the] government resources,” he said.

“Transformative reforms” such as those in energy transformation, investing in climate issues, investing in technology and reducing the level of informality in economies are “steps in the right direction”, Mr Azour said.

“The priorities should be very clear: reduce the level of unemployment, especially at the youth, and allow the state to provide protection to those who need it.

“This requires good co-ordination of public policies … also to strengthen the quality of public services, especially education and health, and increase the level of trust in the private sector, who is able in the region to lead the growth.”

The specs: Volvo XC40

Price: base / as tested: Dh185,000

Engine: 2.0-litre, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder

Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic

Power: 250hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 350Nm @ 1,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 10.4L / 100km

Overview

What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.

When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.

Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.

Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.

Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.

Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

Specs

Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric

Range: Up to 610km

Power: 905hp

Torque: 985Nm

Price: From Dh439,000

Available: Now

BACK%20TO%20ALEXANDRIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETamer%20Ruggli%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadine%20Labaki%2C%20Fanny%20Ardant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile

Name: Carzaty

Founders: Marwan Chaar and Hassan Jaffar

Launched: 2017

Employees: 22

Based: Dubai and Muscat

Sector: Automobile retail

Funding to date: $5.5 million

The specs

Engine: 3.5-litre V6

Power: 272hp at 6,400rpm

Torque: 331Nm from 5,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.7L/100km

On sale: now

Price: Dh149,000

 

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
RESULT

Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1 
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’

SRI LANKA SQUAD

Upul Tharanga (captain), Dinesh Chandimal, Niroshan Dickwella
Lahiru Thirimanne, Kusal Mendis, Milinda Siriwardana
Chamara Kapugedara, Thisara Perera, Seekuge Prasanna
Nuwan Pradeep, Suranga Lakmal, Dushmantha Chameera
Vishwa Fernando, Akila Dananjaya, Jeffrey Vandersay

Company Profile

Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million

List of UAE medal winners

Gold
Faisal Al Ketbi (Open weight and 94kg)
Talib Al Kirbi (69kg)
Omar Al Fadhli (56kg)

Silver
Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Khalfan Belhol (85kg)
Zayed Al Mansoori (62kg)
Mouza Al Shamsi (49kg women)

Bronze
Yahia Mansour Al Hammadi (Open and 94kg)
Saood Al Hammadi (77kg)
Said Al Mazroui (62kg)
Obaid Al Nuaimi (56kg)
Bashayer Al Matrooshi (62kg women)
Reem Abdulkareem (45kg women)

Brief scoreline:

Wales 1

James 5'

Slovakia 0

Man of the Match: Dan James (Wales)

How to wear a kandura

Dos

  • Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion 
  • Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
  • Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work 
  • Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester

Don’ts 

  • Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal 
  • Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Saturday's results

Brighton 1-1 Leicester City
Everton 1-0 Cardiff City
Manchester United 0-0 Crystal Palace
Watford 0-3 Liverpool
West Ham United 0-4 Manchester City

Brief scoreline:

Tottenham 1

Son 78'

Manchester City 0

The biog

Age: 46

Number of Children: Four

Hobby: Reading history books

Loves: Sports

Updated: April 27, 2022, 11:24 AM`