Low-rated frontier markets and oil-importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region are most exposed to an extended funding shock amid the tightening of global financial conditions and monetary policy owing to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moody’s Investors Service said.
Borrowing costs are expected to rise steeply while currency depreciation could increase debt burdens for countries with significant foreign currency exposure, the rating agency said in a report.
Capital outflows amid the tightening of global financial conditions would weaken their external stability.
“A spike in borrowing costs would weaken debt affordability for Egypt, Pakistan, Ghana and Jordan, all of whom already have a high-interest bill or large borrowing requirements. Sri Lanka's debt affordability, already the weakest by far, would weaken even further,” Moody’s said.
“Currency depreciation would increase the debt burdens for those with significant foreign-currency exposure. Among sovereigns without stable pegs, Suriname, Laos, Argentina would see among the largest increases in debt in our stress scenario of a 20 per cent depreciation shock.”
Moody's also said capital outflows would weaken external stability in countries such as Sri Lanka, Belarus and Ethiopia, where reserve levels are already low relative to external debt payments that are coming up or imports or as a share of gross domestic product.
Macroeconomic uncertainties are mounting globally after the Russia-Ukraine war, with commodity prices reaching record highs in recent weeks, stoking inflation around the globe.
The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2022 growth forecast for the global economy, with the Ukraine war severely denting economic prospects and rising inflation threatening to derail momentum.
The IMF now projects global growth at 3.6 per cent in 2022 and 2023, revised down 0.8 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, from its January forecasts.
The US, the world’s largest economy, is also tightening monetary policy and is considering half-point interest rate increases to tame inflation, according to Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.
“A 200 basis points shock to marginal borrowing costs would weaken the debt affordability metrics of emerging markets and frontier markets most, with their median interest/revenue increasing by 0.7 percentage points as compared to the no-shock baseline. The median impact on advanced economies is lower at 0.5 percentage points,” Moody’s said.
At a country level, sovereigns with an already high-interest bill and large gross borrowing requirements are most exposed to a 200 bps shock in marginal borrowing costs, including Sri Lanka, Egypt, Pakistan and Ghana, the rating agency said.
Advanced economies such as the US and Japan are also exposed to higher borrowing costs given their high refinancing needs.
However, the interest bill relative to revenue remains below 10 in both cases, indicating their low cost of debt and large funding pool, it said.
Sri Lanka is facing its worst financial crisis in more than 70 years amid low reserves of foreign currencies. It is seeking funding from the IMF and other countries such as India and China to cope with the crisis.
The Covid-19 crisis hit the country hard, leading to a loss of tourism revenue and strict lockdowns. Deep tax cuts in 2019 and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in fiscal deficits of 11.4 per cent and 12.8 per cent of GDP in 2021 and 2020, respectively, raising public debt well above 100 per cent of GDP.
Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country, is also suffering from rising import costs and energy prices, which have affected foreign currency reserves amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The North African country's annual urban inflation rate rose to 8.8 per cent in February, the fastest in about three years, due to surging food prices.
To mitigate the economic shocks caused by supply chain disruptions and shore up foreign currency reserves, Egypt recently introduced a 130bn Egyptian pound ($7.1bn) relief package, raised interest rates, let its currency weaken sharply and asked for support from the IMF.
The country’s Gulf allies also pledged as much as $22bn to help the country to cope with the effects of the war in Ukraine.
“The depreciation shock is more relevant for frontier and emerging markets than for advanced economies because the latter mostly fund themselves in local currency,” Moody’s said.
“The exposure of emerging and frontier markets to adverse valuation effects has actually increased in the last four years, given the renewed rise in the median share of debt denominated in foreign currency.”
Among sovereigns without long-lasting pegged exchange rates, Suriname is expected to record the largest increase in its debt/GDP ratio from a 20 per cent depreciation shock, given its high initial debt stock and significant foreign currency share, which stood at more than 70 per cent in 2021, followed by Laos and Argentina.
Moody’s also said a drawdown in reserves would weaken coverage of coming external debt service payments among frontier and oil-importing Mena markets.
“An unanticipated drawdown of reserves of 2 per cent of [the] GDP would increase balance-of-payment risks for Sri Lanka, Belarus, Bahrain and Ethiopia, most given their already low foreign-exchange reserve buffers when measured in months of import cover,” it said.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
World Cup warm-up fixtures
Friday, May 24:
- Pakistan v Afghanistan (Bristol)
- Sri Lanka v South Africa (Cardiff)
Saturday, May 25
- England v Australia (Southampton)
- India v New Zealand (The Oval, London)
Sunday, May 26
- South Africa v West Indies (Bristol)
- Pakistan v Bangladesh (Cardiff)
Monday, May 27
- Australia v Sri Lanka (Southampton)
- England v Afghanistan (The Oval, London)
Tuesday, May 28
- West Indies v New Zealand (Bristol)
- Bangladesh v India (Cardiff)
SPEC SHEET
Display: 6.8" edge quad-HD dynamic Amoled 2X, Infinity-O, 3088 x 1440, 500ppi, HDR10 , 120Hz
Processor: 4nm Snapdragon 8 Gen 1/Exynos 2200, 8-core
Memory: 8/12GB RAM
Storage: 128/256/512GB/1TB
Platform: Android 12
Main camera: quad 12MP ultra-wide f/2.2, 108MP wide f/1.8, 10MP telephoto f/4.9, 10MP telephoto 2.4; Space Zoom up to 100x, auto HDR, expert RAW
Video: 8K@24fps, 4K@60fps, full-HD@60fps, HD@30fps, super slo-mo@960fps
Front camera: 40MP f/2.2
Battery: 5000mAh, fast wireless charging 2.0 Wireless PowerShare
Connectivity: 5G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.2, NFC
I/O: USB-C
SIM: single nano, or nano and SIM, nano and nano, eSIM/nano and nano
Colours: burgundy, green, phantom black, phantom white, graphite, sky blue, red
Price: Dh4,699 for 128GB, Dh5,099 for 256GB, Dh5,499 for 512GB; 1TB unavailable in the UAE
Match info
Wolves 0
Arsenal 2 (Saka 43', Lacazette 85')
Man of the match: Shkodran Mustafi (Arsenal)
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
RESULT
Wolves 1 (Traore 67')
Tottenham 2 (Moura 8', Vertonghen 90 1')
Man of the Match: Adama Traore (Wolves)
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULTS
5pm: Rated Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: AF Mouthirah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Abubakar Daud
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Tair, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
Winner: Son Of Normandy, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
Jebel Ali results
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 64,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: One Vision, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gabr, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
4pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 96,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
4.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Torno Subito, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner: Untold Secret, Jose Santiago, Salem bin Ghadayer
RESULTS
6.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh82.500 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Meshakel, Royston Ffrench (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
Winner Gervais, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner Global Heat, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Firnas, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (D) 1,600m
Winner Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm Dubai Trophy (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (T) 1,200m
Winner Topper Bill, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,400m
Winner Wasim, Mickael Barzalona, Ismail Mohammed.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
How%20champions%20are%20made
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGrowdash%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESean%20Trevaskis%20and%20Enver%20Sorkun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERestaurant%20technology%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Plus%20VC%2C%20Judah%20VC%2C%20TPN%20Investments%20and%20angel%20investors%2C%20including%20former%20Talabat%20chief%20executive%20Abdulhamid%20Alomar%2C%20and%20entrepreneur%20Zeid%20Husban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Defending champions
World Series: South Africa
Women’s World Series: Australia
Gulf Men’s League: Dubai Exiles
Gulf Men’s Social: Mediclinic Barrelhouse Warriors
Gulf Vets: Jebel Ali Dragons Veterans
Gulf Women: Dubai Sports City Eagles
Gulf Under 19: British School Al Khubairat
Gulf Under 19 Girls: Dubai Exiles
UAE National Schools: Al Safa School
International Invitational: Speranza 22
International Vets: Joining Jack
HEY%20MERCEDES%2C%20WHAT%20CAN%20YOU%20DO%20FOR%20ME%3F
%3Cp%3EMercedes-Benz's%20MBUX%20digital%20voice%20assistant%2C%20Hey%20Mercedes%2C%20allows%20users%20to%20set%20up%20commands%20for%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Navigation%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Calls%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20In-car%20climate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Ambient%20lighting%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Media%20controls%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Driver%20assistance%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20General%20inquiries%20such%20as%20motor%20data%2C%20fuel%20consumption%20and%20next%20service%20schedule%2C%20and%20even%20funny%20questions%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EThere's%20also%20a%20hidden%20feature%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20pressing%20and%20holding%20the%20voice%20command%20button%20on%20the%20steering%20wheel%20activates%20the%20voice%20assistant%20on%20a%20connected%20smartphone%20%E2%80%93%20Siri%20on%20Apple's%20iOS%20or%20Google%20Assistant%20on%20Android%20%E2%80%93%20enabling%20a%20user%20to%20command%20the%20car%20even%20without%20Apple%20CarPlay%20or%20Android%20Auto%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tottenham v Ajax, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Ajax v Tottenham, Wednesday, May 8, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
UAE Falcons
Carly Lewis (captain), Emily Fensome, Kelly Loy, Isabel Affley, Jessica Cronin, Jemma Eley, Jenna Guy, Kate Lewis, Megan Polley, Charlie Preston, Becki Quigley and Sophie Siffre. Deb Jones and Lucia Sdao – coach and assistant coach.
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) | US$95,000 | (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) ) | $175,000) | (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 3 (TB) ) | $300,000) | (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Curlin Handicap Listed (TB)) | $160,000) | (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB)) | $175,000) | (T) 1,400m
10pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (T) 2,000m
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
LIGUE 1 FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Nice v Angers (9pm)
Lille v Monaco (10.45pm)
Saturday
Montpellier v Paris Saint-Germain (7pm)
Bordeaux v Guingamp (10pm)
Caen v Amiens (10pm)
Lyon v Dijon (10pm)
Metz v Troyes (10pm)
Sunday
Saint-Etienne v Rennes (5pm)
Strasbourg v Nantes (7pm)
Marseille v Toulouse (11pm)
Afro%20salons
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20women%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESisu%20Hair%20Salon%2C%20Jumeirah%201%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EBoho%20Salon%2C%20Al%20Barsha%20South%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EMoonlight%2C%20Al%20Falah%20Street%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFor%20men%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMK%20Barbershop%2C%20Dar%20Al%20Wasl%20Mall%2C%20Dubai%3Cbr%3ERegency%20Saloon%2C%20Al%20Zahiyah%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EUptown%20Barbershop%2C%20Al%20Nasseriya%2C%20Sharjah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
