The Ukraine war and ensuing sanctions on Russia have led the International Monetary Fund to lower its global economic growth forecast this year for 143 countries, accounting for 86 per cent of the world's output, with widely varying prospects.
Economies facing downgrades include net importers of food and fuel — in Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Europe, Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, said on Thursday.
For many exporters of oil, natural gas and metals, rising commodity prices will lift their growth prospects, but they will face higher uncertainty and their gains are insufficient to offset an overall global slowdown driven mainly by the war.
“The outlook has deteriorated substantially, largely because of the war and its repercussions. Inflation, financial tightening and frequent, wide-ranging lockdowns in China — causing new bottlenecks in global supply chains — are also weighing on activity,” the IMF chief said.
“Fortunately, for most countries, growth will still remains in positive territory. That said, the impact of the war will contribute to forecast downgrades for 143 economies this year.”
The IMF chief’s remarks came ahead the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank scheduled for April 18 to 24.
In January, the Washington-based lender projected global economic growth would reach 4.4 per cent this year, a downgrade of 0.5 percentage point from its October estimates, due to Omicron-related disruptions.
The fund is expected to lower its projections further for 2022 and 2023 in its World Economic Outlook next week as the Russian war in Ukraine sends shock waves throughout the global economy, raising energy and food prices and threatening to further increase inequalities.
“Prospects vary greatly across countries: from catastrophic economic losses in Ukraine, to a severe contraction in Russia, to countries facing spillovers from the war through commodity, trade, and financial channels,” Ms Georgieva said.
The medium-term outlook has also worsened.
For most countries, output is now expected to take even longer to return to its pre-pandemic levels, the IMF chief said.
Emerging markets and developing economies are not only grappling with the impact of the war but also the “scarring effects” of the Covid-19 pandemic, including job losses and education challenges that are borne mostly by women and youth, she said.
“The recovery remains deeply divergent between rich and poor,” Ms Georgieva said.
The IMF chief painted a dire picture of a future marred by weaker growth, rising inflation, concerns about food security and greater hardships for people.
“The outlook is extraordinarily uncertain — well beyond the normal range. The war and sanctions could escalate. New Covid variants could emerge. Crops could fail,” she said.
Inflation, a “clear and present danger” for many countries, is a massive setback for the global economic recovery, she said.
Soaring energy and food prices and supply chain disruptions continue to push up inflation, squeezing real incomes of households around the world.
“For advanced economies, inflation is already reaching a four-decade high. And we now project it to remain elevated for longer than previously estimated,” the IMF chief said.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also raised concerns about food security worldwide as the two warring countries used to provide 28 per cent of global wheat exports. Russia and Belarus supplied 40 per cent of exports of potash, which is used primarily in fertilisers.
Food security is a “grave concern” and the world must act immediately with a multilateral initiative to bolster food supplied, the fund warned.
“The alternative is dire: more hunger, more poverty, and more social unrest — especially for countries that have struggled to escape fragility and conflict for many years,” Ms Georgieva said.
Policymakers are facing a tough balance between reining in high inflation and rising debt, while maintaining critical spending and building foundations for sustainable growth.
“We face bigger challenges and more difficult choices,” she said.
The immediate priorities are to end the war in Ukraine, deal with the pandemic and tackle inflation and debt, the IMF said.
Deploying Covid-19 vaccines, tests and antiviral treatments can be done for $15 billion this year, and $10bn each year afterwards, IMF staff analysis showed.
“If we have learned anything from the pandemic, it is that health security is economic security,” Ms Georgieva said.
To address inflation, central banks must act decisively, keeping their finger on the pulse of the economy and adjust policy appropriately, she said.
Developing countries facing higher borrowing costs and risks of capital outflows must consider extending debt maturities and using exchange rate flexibility to foreign exchange interventions and capital flow management measures, she added.
The IMF's lending currently stands at more than $300bn to help its members maintain access to liquidity.
To address mounting debt, countries' spending must be carefully prioritised on safety nets, health and education while ensuring equitable tax policies.
For some countries — especially among the 60 per cent of low-income nations already in or near debt distress — debt restructuring will be required, she said.
The world is facing “a crisis on top of a crisis” with the devastating humanitarian and economic effects of the war following two years of the pandemic, that risks eroding the recovery progress made so far.
“In a world where war in Europe creates hunger in Africa; where a pandemic can circle the globe in days and reverberate for years; where emissions anywhere mean rising sea levels everywhere — the threat to our collective prosperity from a breakdown in global cooperation cannot be overstated,” she said.
if you go
The flights
Emirates fly direct from Dubai to Houston, Texas, where United have direct flights to Managua. Alternatively, from October, Iberia will offer connections from Madrid, which can be reached by both Etihad from Abu Dhabi and Emirates from Dubai.
The trip
Geodyssey’s (Geodyssey.co.uk) 15-night Nicaragua Odyssey visits the colonial cities of Leon and Granada, lively country villages, the lake island of Ometepe and a stunning array of landscapes, with wildlife, history, creative crafts and more. From Dh18,500 per person, based on two sharing, including transfers and tours but excluding international flights. For more information, visit visitnicaragua.us.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
No%20Windmills%20in%20Basra
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Diaa%20Jubaili%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20180%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Deep%20Vellum%20Publishing%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 720hp
Torque: 770Nm
Price: Dh1,100,000
On sale: now
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
'Gold'
Director:Anthony Hayes
Stars:Zaf Efron, Anthony Hayes
Rating:3/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Your Guide to the Home
- Level 1 has a valet service if you choose not to park in the basement level. This level houses all the kitchenware, including covetable brand French Bull, along with a wide array of outdoor furnishings, lamps and lighting solutions, textiles like curtains, towels, cushions and bedding, and plenty of other home accessories.
- Level 2 features curated inspiration zones and solutions for bedrooms, living rooms and dining spaces. This is also where you’d go to customise your sofas and beds, and pick and choose from more than a dozen mattress options.
- Level 3 features The Home’s “man cave” set-up and a display of industrial and rustic furnishings. This level also has a mother’s room, a play area for children with staff to watch over the kids, furniture for nurseries and children’s rooms, and the store’s design studio.
More on animal trafficking
Other key dates
-
Finals draw: December 2
-
Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
-
Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
-
Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Four%20scenarios%20for%20Ukraine%20war
%3Cp%3E1.%20Protracted%20but%20less%20intense%20war%20(60%25%20likelihood)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Negotiated%20end%20to%20the%20conflict%20(30%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Russia%20seizes%20more%20territory%20(20%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Ukraine%20pushes%20Russia%20back%20(10%25)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EForecast%20by%20Economist%20Intelligence%20Unit%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Naga
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMeshal%20Al%20Jaser%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdwa%20Bader%2C%20Yazeed%20Almajyul%2C%20Khalid%20Bin%20Shaddad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (11.30pm)
Saturday Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund, Cologne v Wolfsburg, Arminia Bielefeld v Mainz (6.30pm) Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig (9.30pm)
Sunday Werder Bremen v Stuttgart (6.30pm), Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (9pm)
Monday Hoffenheim v Augsburg (11.30pm)
The%20Roundup%20%3A%20No%20Way%20Out
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lee%20Sang-yong%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Don%20Lee%2C%20Lee%20Jun-hyuk%2C%20Munetaka%20Aoki%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
England 241-3 (20 ovs)
Malan 130 no, Morgan 91
New Zealand 165 all out (16.5ovs)
Southee 39, Parkinson 4-47
England win by 76 runs
Series level at 2-2
Day 2, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Dinesh Chandimal has inherited a challenging job, after being made Sri Lanka’s Test captain. He responded in perfect fashion, with an easy-natured century against Pakistan. He brought up three figures with a majestic cover drive, which he just stood and admired.
Stat of the day – 33 It took 33 balls for Dilruwan Perera to get off the mark. His time on zero was eventful enough. The Sri Lankan No 7 was given out LBW twice, but managed to have both decisions overturned on review. The TV replays showed both times that he had inside edged the ball onto his pad.
The verdict In the two previous times these two sides have met in Abu Dhabi, the Tests have been drawn. The docile nature of proceedings so far makes that the likely outcome again this time, but both sides will be harbouring thoughts that they can force their way into a winning position.
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The biog
Year of birth: 1988
Place of birth: Baghdad
Education: PhD student and co-researcher at Greifswald University, Germany
Hobbies: Ping Pong, swimming, reading
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3E5pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAl%20Hazeez%2C%20Saif%20Al%20Balushi%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5.30pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EShams%20Gate%20Tower%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ES%20Sudani%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Hamad%20Al%20Marar%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Al%20Bahr%20Towers%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AF%20Musannef%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Capital%20Gate%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shugga'A%20Baynounah%2C%20Dane%20O%E2%80%99Neill%2C%20Nisren%20Mahgoub%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEtihad%20Towers%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAF%20Maqam%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fairmont%20Marina%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETempesta%20D'Oro%2C%20Xavier%20Ziani%2C%20Salem%20bin%20Ghadayer%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The years Ramadan fell in May
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
Final: Iran beat Spain 6-3.
Play-off 3rd: UAE beat Russia 2-1 (in extra time).
Play-off 5th: Japan beat Egypt 7-2.
Play-off 7th: Italy beat Mexico 3-2.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
MATCH INFO
Norwich City 0 Southampton 3 (Ings 49', Armstrong 54', Redmond 79')
TO ALL THE BOYS: ALWAYS AND FOREVER
Directed by: Michael Fimognari
Starring: Lana Condor and Noah Centineo
Two stars
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clinicy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Prince%20Mohammed%20Bin%20Abdulrahman%2C%20Abdullah%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%20and%20Saud%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Riyadh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2025%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20More%20than%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Gate%20Capital%2C%20Kafou%20Group%20and%20Fadeed%20Investment%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
