Dubai's economy is well-positioned for its next cycle of growth, marked by an increasing shift from building physical infrastructure to a focus on “soft infrastructure” to further reduce barriers to doing business, according to the emirate's largest lender.
Trade, domestic manufacturing, e-commerce, a recovering real estate market and a rebounding tourism sector are also essential for the long-term economic potential of the emirate, Emirates NBD said in a research note on Wednesday.
“Dubai’s economy is well positioned to successfully transition on to the next phase of its economic cycle. Capacity uptake will be a key measure of that success,” it said.
“We will see an increasing shift from physical infrastructure build-up to policy measures that hone and deliver on the 'soft infrastructure' needed to support the emirate’s long term growth strategies.”
Dubai's non-oil private sector economy continued to grow in January, albeit at a softer pace, driven by an increase in new orders and boost in output despite Omicron headwinds.
The emirate's seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index reading stood at 52.6 in January, down from 55.3 in December, but the index was above the 50 neutral mark for the 14th consecutive month, indicating a solid upturn in business conditions across the non-oil private sector. A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while one below points to a contraction.
The emirate's economy grew 6.3 per cent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2021, underpinned by a strong rebound in hospitality, trade and real estate sectors, according to preliminary data from the Dubai Statistics Centre.
Emirates NBD estimates Dubai’s economy grew around 5.5 per cent for the full year 2021 — an upward revision from its earlier forecast of 4 per cent. With slower global growth, higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar, the lender expects growth of 4 per cent to 4.5 per cent in 2022.
Inflation in Dubai is expected to accelerate this year to more than 2 per cent, after several years of declining prices driven by falling rents, it said.
Dubai’s investment in trade-enabling infrastructure, such as its seaports and airports, allows it to be a crucial East-West trans-shipment point, similar to trade-based economies like Singapore and Hong Kong, which is important for post-pandemic recovery, it said.
In terms of local manufacturing, Dubai's policies will “drive the path forward for that sector as a critical part of the emirate’s economic diversification”, the research paper noted.
“The emirate sees that developing its manufacturing sector will be an important element in reducing economic vulnerabilities especially to external shocks such energy price volatility, which is a key goal of economic diversification,” it said.
“It also makes the economy more self-reliant and reduces dependence on imports, which is positive for its long-term trade dynamics.”
An important focus will be on so-called “industries of the future” — including space, biotech, HealthTech and other sectors driven by Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies.
“Regulatory framework will be key,” it said, referring to positive recent policies such as allowing the full foreign ownership of companies and the easing of SME funding.
“Dubai is well positioned to capitalise on those longer-term national industrial plans, particularly given its logistics and overall infrastructure readiness,” the report said.
Dubai's property market performed well in 2021, with apartment and villa sales prices showing their first yearly increase since 2014.
“We see the improvement in sales and rents of both residential apartments and villas as a sign of stabilisation after a multi-year decline,” the report said.
In the office space, while the omicron variant might dampen some of that recovery, the medium and long-term outlooks “strongly point to a return-to-office agenda, as businesses more comfortably adapt to the dynamics of the virus".
Higher interest may pose some challenges, although the impact on mortgage demand will be “moderate” at least into the 2022 rate hike cycle.
“An unexpected adverse evolution of the virus, and any related restrictions are headwinds to the market outlook,” the bank said.
Another sector that has rebounded in the emirate is tourism.
“While headwinds from the latest Covid variant continue to cloud the outlook for the global tourism sector, a focus on the correct set of policies that reduce risks and keep the doors open for tourists, in addition to leveraging on its high-quality travel infrastructure, will allow Dubai to chart a determined path to toward normalisation,” Emirates NBD said.
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
The biog
Age: 30
Position: Senior lab superintendent at Emirates Global Aluminium
Education: Bachelor of science in chemical engineering, post graduate degree in light metal reduction technology
Favourite part of job: The challenge, because it is challenging
Favourite quote: “Be the change you wish to see in the world,” Gandi
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Coming soon
Torno Subito by Massimo Bottura
When the W Dubai – The Palm hotel opens at the end of this year, one of the highlights will be Massimo Bottura’s new restaurant, Torno Subito, which promises “to take guests on a journey back to 1960s Italy”. It is the three Michelinstarred chef’s first venture in Dubai and should be every bit as ambitious as you would expect from the man whose restaurant in Italy, Osteria Francescana, was crowned number one in this year’s list of the World’s 50 Best Restaurants.
Akira Back Dubai
Another exciting opening at the W Dubai – The Palm hotel is South Korean chef Akira Back’s new restaurant, which will continue to showcase some of the finest Asian food in the world. Back, whose Seoul restaurant, Dosa, won a Michelin star last year, describes his menu as, “an innovative Japanese cuisine prepared with a Korean accent”.
Dinner by Heston Blumenthal
The highly experimental chef, whose dishes are as much about spectacle as taste, opens his first restaurant in Dubai next year. Housed at The Royal Atlantis Resort & Residences, Dinner by Heston Blumenthal will feature contemporary twists on recipes that date back to the 1300s, including goats’ milk cheesecake. Always remember with a Blumenthal dish: nothing is quite as it seems.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Green ambitions
- Trees: 1,500 to be planted, replacing 300 felled ones, with veteran oaks protected
- Lake: Brown's centrepiece to be cleaned of silt that makes it as shallow as 2.5cm
- Biodiversity: Bat cave to be added and habitats designed for kingfishers and little grebes
- Flood risk: Longer grass, deeper lake, restored ponds and absorbent paths all meant to siphon off water
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Jawan
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