The end of the European Central Bank’s reign as one of the pre-eminent doves among monetary-policy makers could kindle a rebound in the euro.
Dustin Reid, chief fixed income strategist at Mackenzie Investments, which oversees about C$200 billion ($156bn), said he sees the euro climbing as high as $1.20 by year-end, as ECB officials like president Christine Lagarde change their tune on the central bank’s outlook.
That’s compared with a median Bloomberg forecast of $1.16 for the fourth quarter and a Friday spot price of about $1.13.
The euro fell about 7 per cent against the US dollar last year, when the greenback rallied in anticipation of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
“You’re starting to see the boat turn a little bit,” Mr Reid said at the TradeTech FX US conference in Miami.
“Some of the language we got from Ms Lagarde during the press conference at the February meeting I would’ve expected at the March meeting, and she definitely left the door open in terms of being a little bit more two-way in the outlook.”
On Friday, traders holding out for a hawkish ECB pivot got a glimpse of hope following a report that more bank officials are conceding that interest rates will likely need to rise late this year, helping the euro climb off an intra-day low. Money markets are now pricing in 44 basis points of tightening by year-end, compared with 42 basis-points on Thursday.
While the common currency has climbed nearly 1 per cent against the greenback in February, most of those gains came in the run-up to February’s ECB meeting and the pair has trended lower since then. A measure of one-year put- and call-option demand has grown less bearish on the euro in the past month, even as near-term sentiment is weighed down by geopolitical tensions on the continent.
“The market will get very aggressive in terms of baking in hikes for Q4 of this year, and definitely for the first half of ‘23,” Mr Reid said. “So rightly or wrongly, I think that’s setting up to be a relatively constructive tone for euro-dollar.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
More on Quran memorisation:
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
