A Russian military incursion into Ukraine would likely result in sovereign ratings of both nations being placed on a review for a downgrade, Moody’s Investors Service said.
Russia's military build-up along Ukraine's border has increased the risk of further escalation and armed conflict. This could result in western countries imposing additional sanctions on Russia, which would be credit-negative for the country, Moody’s said in a report on Wednesday.
Although tensions remain high, Moody’s base case scenario does not assume Russian incursions into Ukraine. However, if the situation were to deteriorate, the credit impact of new sanctions on Russia would depend on the sectors targeted, their scope and the degree of co-ordination among western countries.
While Russia's ability to respond to and operate under sanctions has strengthened in recent years, significant additional economic and financial sanctions — such as controls on access to key imports needed to modernise its economy — could result in downwards pressure on its Baa3 stable credit rating.
While unlikely, the imposition of severe and co-ordinated sanctions that hinder the execution of cross-border payments in a timely manner would pose “more immediate risks to Russia's credit profile”, Moody's said.
“Russia has significant buffers that help to insulate its credit profile in the short term from the effects of most new sanctions,” said Evan Wohlmann, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody's.
“Still, while an unlikely and very remote scenario, severe sanctions that lead to a delay in the repayment of Russia's external debt obligations could result in a default under our definition and a downgrade of the rating.”
Ukraine, on the other hand, has strengthened its fiscal and external buffers since the last military escalation with Russia in 2014-15, and this would help the country withstand the immediate effects of a conflict.
However, “material downwards credit pressure” could develop over time unless it receives “significant external financial support” to shore up the country's financing position, given its sizeable external refinancing needs, Moody’s said.
Russia and Ukraine have been at loggerheads since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. Concerns have been rife over a possible Russian invasion as the country increased its troop presence along the Ukrainian border. Western nations have warned of serious consequences for Russia if it were to invade, including the imposition of financial and economic sanctions on Moscow.
Russia has significant buffers that help to insulate its credit profile in the short term from the effects of most new sanctions
Evan Wohlmann,
vice president and senior credit officer, Moody's
US troops landed in south-east Poland near the border with Ukraine on Sunday after President Joe Biden ordered the stationing of 1,700 soldiers there. The move is widely seen as being aimed at deterring a possible invasion. Hundreds more are expected to arrive about 90 kilometres from Poland’s border with Ukraine.
Nato and European nations are attempting to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict that is also threatening to disrupt energy supplies to Europe.
An escalation of military tension could put up to 155 billion cubic metres per year of natural gas imports to Europe at risk, if the conflict causes Russia to halt deliveries. The figure corresponds to 30 per cent of Western Europe’s annual gas demand, Rystad Energy said on Wednesday.
Although a total shutdown of Russian piped gas is unlikely, European gas markets are entering the final stretch of winter in a precarious position. Gas stocks are at five-year lows, international LNG prices are highly volatile and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany is not expected to be operational until the second half of this year.
“If Russian exports were shut off entirely, Europe would struggle to meet its gas needs,” the Rystad report said.
“Eastern Europe would be most severely hit as the region is the most reliant on Russian imports, whereas Western Europe could, in theory, fill the void with increased LNG imports, primarily from the US.”
In a last ditch diplomatic effort, French President Emmanuel Macron this week travelled to Moscow. On Tuesday, he announced a breakthrough in his quest to defuse the Ukraine crisis, saying he had won assurances from Russia not to escalate matters.
Mr Macron said his trip had succeeded in its aim of “freezing the game” to allow Nato and the Kremlin to discuss their future.
“This objective for me is fulfilled,” he said after travelling to Kiev on Tuesday for talks with Ukrainian leaders. “I obtained that there will be neither a worsening nor an escalation.”
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press
Spare
Profile
Company name: Spare
Started: March 2018
Co-founders: Dalal Alrayes and Saurabh Shah
Based: UAE
Sector: FinTech
Investment: Own savings. Going for first round of fund-raising in March 2019
The Breadwinner
Director: Nora Twomey
Starring: Saara Chaudry, Soma Chhaya, Laara Sadiq
Three stars
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Bharatanatyam
A ancient classical dance from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Intricate footwork and expressions are used to denote spiritual stories and ideas.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Results
Catchweight 60kg: Mohammed Al Katheeri (UAE) beat Mostafa El Hamy (EGY) TKO round 3
Light Heavyweight: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) no contest Kevin Oumar (COM) Unintentional knee by Oumer
Catchweight 73kg: Yazid Chouchane (ALG) beat Ahmad Al Boussairy (KUW) Unanimous decision
Featherweight: Faris Khaleel Asha (JOR) beat Yousef Al Housani (UAE) TKO in round 2 through foot injury
Welterweight: Omar Hussein (JOR) beat Yassin Najid (MAR); Split decision
Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) beat Sallah Eddine Dekhissi (MAR); Round-1 TKO
Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammed Ali Musalim (UAE) beat Medhat Hussein (EGY); Triangle choke submission
Welterweight: Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) beat Sofiane Oudina (ALG); Triangle choke Round-1
Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) beat Saleem Al Bakri (JOR); Unanimous decision
Bantamweight: Ali Taleb (IRQ) beat Nawras Abzakh (JOR); TKO round-2
Catchweight 63kg: Rany Saadeh (PAL) beat Abdel Ali Hariri (MAR); Unanimous decision
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (c), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Jos Buttler, Alastair Cook, Sam Curran, Keaton Jennings, Ollie Pope, Adil Rashid, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Results
2.30pm: Park Avenue – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 2,000m; Winner: Rb Seqondtonone, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
3.05pm: Al Furjan – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Bosphorus, Dane O’Neill, Bhupat Seemar
3.40pm: Mina – Rated Condition (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Royal Mews, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
4.15pm: Aliyah – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,900m; Winner: Ursa Minor, Ray Dawson, Ahmad bin Harmash
4.50pm: Riviera Beach – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 2,200m; Winner: Woodditton, Saif Al Balushi, Ahmad bin Harmash
5.25pm: Riviera – Handicap (TB) Dh2,000 (T) 2,000m; Winner: Al Madhar, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
6pm: Creek Views – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Al Salt, Dane O’Neill, Erwan Charpy
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
Top New Zealand cop on policing the virtual world
New Zealand police began closer scrutiny of social media and online communities after the attacks on two mosques in March, the country's top officer said.
The killing of 51 people in Christchurch and wounding of more than 40 others shocked the world. Brenton Tarrant, a suspected white supremacist, was accused of the killings. His trial is ongoing and he denies the charges.
Mike Bush, commissioner of New Zealand Police, said officers looked closely at how they monitored social media in the wake of the tragedy to see if lessons could be learned.
“We decided that it was fit for purpose but we need to deepen it in terms of community relationships, extending them not only with the traditional community but the virtual one as well," he told The National.
"We want to get ahead of attacks like we suffered in New Zealand so we have to challenge ourselves to be better."
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
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In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
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ARSENAL IN 1977
Feb 05 Arsenal 0-0 Sunderland
Feb 12 Manchester City 1-0 Arsenal
Feb 15 Middlesbrough 3-0 Arsenal
Feb 19 Arsenal 2-3 West Ham
Feb 26 Middlesbrough 4-1 Arsenal (FA Cup)
Mar 01 Everton 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 05 Arsenal 1-4 ipswich
March 08 Arsenal 1-2 West Brom
Mar 12 QPR 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 23 Stoke 1-1 Arsenal
Apr 02 Arsenal 3-0 Leicester
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
