The resurgent pandemic and faster US Federal Reserve tightening pose risks to global recovery and emerging economies should prepare for bouts of economic turbulence, according to the International Monetary Fund.
As well as the rampant Omicron variant, supply-side pressures and the Fed’s decision to accelerate the tapering of asset purchases, emerging markets are confronting elevated inflation and substantially higher public debt, the Washington-based lender said in a blog post on Monday.
“Average gross government debt in emerging markets is up by almost 10 percentage points since 2019 reaching an estimated 64 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of 2021, with large variations across countries,” said Stephan Danninger, who co-wrote the blog and is division chief of macro policies in the IMF’s strategy, policy and review department.
“But in contrast to the US, their economic recovery and labour markets are less robust. While dollar borrowing costs remain low for many, concerns about domestic inflation and stable foreign funding led several emerging markets last year, including Brazil, Russia and South Africa, to start raising interest rates,” he said.
The global economy, which in 2020 entered its deepest recession since the 1930s, bounced back strongly last year on the back of $25 trillion in fiscal and monetary support by governments and central banks around the world.
In October, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast on weakening momentum, Covid-19 outbreaks, uneven access to vaccines, supply chain disruptions and risks from rising inflation. The fund revised growth down in 2021 to 5.9 per cent from its 6 per cent estimate in July, while keeping its 2022 projection at 4.9 per cent.
The unabated spread of the coronavirus since November and subsequent reintroduction of strict pandemic-related measures in large parts of Europe, Asia and the Americas have raised more questions on economic momentum this year.
Persisting supply disruption in advanced economies and the worsening dynamic of Omicron, which threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems in low-income and developing countries, are adding to the economic weakness, the lender said.
Average gross government debt in emerging markets is up by almost 10 percentage points since 2019 reaching an estimated 64 per centof GDP by the end of 2021
Stephan Danninger,
division chief, IMF’s macro policies unit
History shows that the effects for emerging markets are likely to be benign if Fed tightening is “gradual, well telegraphed and in response to a strengthening recovery”. Emerging market currencies may still depreciate, but foreign demand would offset the impact from rising financing costs, the IMF said on Monday.
But a scenario of faster Fed rate increases in response to broad-based US wage inflation or sustained supply bottlenecks could rattle financial markets and tighten financial conditions globally. This could come with a slowing of US demand and trade and may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets, the IMF said.
“The impact of Fed tightening in a scenario like that could be more severe for vulnerable countries,” said Kenneth Kang, a deputy director in the fund’s surveillance, policy and review department, who is one of the blog’s co-authors.
“In recent months, emerging markets with high public and private debt, foreign exchange exposures and lower current-account balances saw already larger movements of their currencies relative to the US dollar. The combination of slower growth and elevated vulnerabilities could create adverse feedback loops for such economies.”
The IMF blog suggested that emerging markets should tailor their response to tighter funding conditions based on their circumstances and vulnerabilities.
Those with policy credibility on containing inflation can tighten monetary policy more gradually, while others with stronger inflation pressures or weaker institutions must act swiftly and comprehensively, the IMF said.
“In either case, responses should include letting currencies depreciate and raising benchmark interest rates,” Hélène Poirson, deputy division chief in the IMF’s macro policy unit and the blog’s co-author, said.
“If faced with disorderly conditions in foreign exchange markets, central banks with sufficient reserves can intervene provided this intervention does not substitute for warranted macroeconomic adjustment.”
Emerging markets must take steps now to strengthen policy frameworks and reduce vulnerabilities.
Measures should include clear and consistent communication of policy plans by central banks to enhance the public’s understanding of the need to pursue price stability. Countries with high levels of foreign currency-denominated debt must look to hedge their exposures and the maturity of obligations should be extended to reduce rollover risks, the IMF said.
The impact of Fed tightening in a scenario like that could be more severe for vulnerable countries
Kenneth Kang,
deputy director, IMF’s surveillance, policy and review department
Solutions should also be readied for countries where corporate debt and bad loans were high even before the pandemic, it said.
“Setting a credible commitment to a medium-term fiscal strategy would help boost investor confidence and regain room for fiscal support in a downturn. Such a strategy could include announcing a comprehensive plan to gradually increase tax revenues, improve spending efficiency or implement structural fiscal reforms such as pension and subsidy overhauls,” the lender said in the blog.
“Despite the expected economic recovery, some countries may need to rely on the global financial safety net. That may include using swap lines, regional financing arrangements and multilateral resources.”
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The specs: 2018 Maserati GranTurismo/GranCabrio
Price, base Dh485,000 (GranTurismo) and Dh575,000 (GranCabrio)
Engine 4.7L V8
Transmission Six-speed automatic
Power 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 520Nm @ 4,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.3L (GranTurismo) and 14.5L (GranCabrio) / 100km
How%20champions%20are%20made
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EDiet%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E7am%20-%20Protein%20shake%20with%20oats%20and%20fruits%0D%3Cbr%3E10am%20-%205-6%20egg%20whites%0D%3Cbr%3E1pm%20-%20White%20rice%20or%20chapati%20(Indian%20bread)%20with%20chicken%0D%3Cbr%3E4pm%20-%20Dry%20fruits%20%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%20-%20Pre%20workout%20meal%20%E2%80%93%20grilled%20fish%20or%20chicken%20with%20veggies%20and%20fruits%0D%3Cbr%3E8.30pm%20to%20midnight%20workout%0D%3Cbr%3E12.30am%20%E2%80%93%20Protein%20shake%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20intake%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204000-4500%20calories%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESaidu%E2%80%99s%20weight%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20110%20kg%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStats%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Biceps%2019%20inches.%20Forearms%2018%20inches%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
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Results
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
Kanye%20West
%3Cp%3EYe%20%E2%80%94%20the%20rapper%20formerly%20known%20as%20Kanye%20West%20%E2%80%94%20has%20seen%20his%20net%20worth%20fall%20to%20%24400%20million%20in%20recent%20weeks.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20precipitous%20drop%20from%20Bloomberg%E2%80%99s%20estimates%20of%20%246.8%20billion%20at%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3Cbr%3EYe%E2%80%99s%20wealth%20plunged%20after%20business%20partners%2C%20including%20Adidas%2C%20severed%20ties%20with%20him%20on%20the%20back%20of%20anti-Semitic%20remarks%20earlier%20this%20year.%3Cbr%3EWest%E2%80%99s%20present%20net%20worth%20derives%20from%20cash%2C%20his%20music%2C%20real%20estate%20and%20a%20stake%20in%20former%20wife%20Kim%20Kardashian%E2%80%99s%20shapewear%20firm%2C%20Skims.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E456hp%20at%205%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E691Nm%20at%203%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E14.6L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh349%2C545%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Champions League last 16, first leg
Tottenham v RB Leipzig, Wednesday, midnight (UAE)
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
The biog
Age: 23
Occupation: Founder of the Studio, formerly an analyst at Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi
Education: Bachelor of science in industrial engineering
Favourite hobby: playing the piano
Favourite quote: "There is a key to every door and a dawn to every dark night"
Family: Married and with a daughter
Brief scores:
Southampton 2
Armstrong 13', Soares 20'
Manchester United 2
Lukaku 33', Herrera 39'
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
NBA Finals results
Game 1: Warriors 124, Cavaliers 114
Game 2: Warriors 122, Cavaliers 103
Game 3: Cavaliers 102, Warriors 110
Game 4: In Cleveland, Sunday (Monday morning UAE)
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium, Malayisa
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia on October 10
Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%207%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2029min%2042ses%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%2010sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Geoffrey%20Bouchard%20(FRA)%20AG2R%20Citroen%20Team%20%E2%80%93%2042sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%2059se%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%9360sec%3Cbr%3ERed%20Jersey%20(General%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EGreen%20Jersey%20(Points%20Classification)%3A%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EWhite%20Jersey%20(Young%20Rider%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EBlack%20Jersey%20(Intermediate%20Sprint%20Classification)%3A%20Edward%20Planckaert%20(FRA)%20Alpecin-Deceuninck%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF Makerah, Adrie de Vries, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap | Dh80,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Hazeme, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Handicap | Dh85,000 | 2,200m
Winner: AF Yatroq, Brett Doyle, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Shadwell Farm for Private Owners Handicap | Dh70,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Nawwaf KB, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) | Dh100,000 | 1,600m
Winner: Treasured Times, Bernardo Pinheiro, Rashed Bouresly
