The resurgent pandemic and faster US Federal Reserve tightening pose risks to global recovery and emerging economies should prepare for bouts of economic turbulence, according to the International Monetary Fund.
As well as the rampant Omicron variant, supply-side pressures and the Fed’s decision to accelerate the tapering of asset purchases, emerging markets are confronting elevated inflation and substantially higher public debt, the Washington-based lender said in a blog post on Monday.
“Average gross government debt in emerging markets is up by almost 10 percentage points since 2019 reaching an estimated 64 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of 2021, with large variations across countries,” said Stephan Danninger, who co-wrote the blog and is division chief of macro policies in the IMF’s strategy, policy and review department.
“But in contrast to the US, their economic recovery and labour markets are less robust. While dollar borrowing costs remain low for many, concerns about domestic inflation and stable foreign funding led several emerging markets last year, including Brazil, Russia and South Africa, to start raising interest rates,” he said.
The global economy, which in 2020 entered its deepest recession since the 1930s, bounced back strongly last year on the back of $25 trillion in fiscal and monetary support by governments and central banks around the world.
In October, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast on weakening momentum, Covid-19 outbreaks, uneven access to vaccines, supply chain disruptions and risks from rising inflation. The fund revised growth down in 2021 to 5.9 per cent from its 6 per cent estimate in July, while keeping its 2022 projection at 4.9 per cent.
The unabated spread of the coronavirus since November and subsequent reintroduction of strict pandemic-related measures in large parts of Europe, Asia and the Americas have raised more questions on economic momentum this year.
Persisting supply disruption in advanced economies and the worsening dynamic of Omicron, which threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems in low-income and developing countries, are adding to the economic weakness, the lender said.
Average gross government debt in emerging markets is up by almost 10 percentage points since 2019 reaching an estimated 64 per centof GDP by the end of 2021
Stephan Danninger,
division chief, IMF’s macro policies unit
History shows that the effects for emerging markets are likely to be benign if Fed tightening is “gradual, well telegraphed and in response to a strengthening recovery”. Emerging market currencies may still depreciate, but foreign demand would offset the impact from rising financing costs, the IMF said on Monday.
But a scenario of faster Fed rate increases in response to broad-based US wage inflation or sustained supply bottlenecks could rattle financial markets and tighten financial conditions globally. This could come with a slowing of US demand and trade and may lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets, the IMF said.
“The impact of Fed tightening in a scenario like that could be more severe for vulnerable countries,” said Kenneth Kang, a deputy director in the fund’s surveillance, policy and review department, who is one of the blog’s co-authors.
“In recent months, emerging markets with high public and private debt, foreign exchange exposures and lower current-account balances saw already larger movements of their currencies relative to the US dollar. The combination of slower growth and elevated vulnerabilities could create adverse feedback loops for such economies.”
The IMF blog suggested that emerging markets should tailor their response to tighter funding conditions based on their circumstances and vulnerabilities.
Those with policy credibility on containing inflation can tighten monetary policy more gradually, while others with stronger inflation pressures or weaker institutions must act swiftly and comprehensively, the IMF said.
“In either case, responses should include letting currencies depreciate and raising benchmark interest rates,” Hélène Poirson, deputy division chief in the IMF’s macro policy unit and the blog’s co-author, said.
“If faced with disorderly conditions in foreign exchange markets, central banks with sufficient reserves can intervene provided this intervention does not substitute for warranted macroeconomic adjustment.”
Emerging markets must take steps now to strengthen policy frameworks and reduce vulnerabilities.
Measures should include clear and consistent communication of policy plans by central banks to enhance the public’s understanding of the need to pursue price stability. Countries with high levels of foreign currency-denominated debt must look to hedge their exposures and the maturity of obligations should be extended to reduce rollover risks, the IMF said.
The impact of Fed tightening in a scenario like that could be more severe for vulnerable countries
Kenneth Kang,
deputy director, IMF’s surveillance, policy and review department
Solutions should also be readied for countries where corporate debt and bad loans were high even before the pandemic, it said.
“Setting a credible commitment to a medium-term fiscal strategy would help boost investor confidence and regain room for fiscal support in a downturn. Such a strategy could include announcing a comprehensive plan to gradually increase tax revenues, improve spending efficiency or implement structural fiscal reforms such as pension and subsidy overhauls,” the lender said in the blog.
“Despite the expected economic recovery, some countries may need to rely on the global financial safety net. That may include using swap lines, regional financing arrangements and multilateral resources.”
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Other IPL batting records
Most sixes: 292 – Chris Gayle
Most fours: 491 – Gautam Gambhir
Highest individual score: 175 not out – Chris Gayle (for Royal Challengers Bangalore against Pune Warriors in 2013)
Highest strike-rate: 177.29 – Andre Russell
Highest strike-rate in an innings: 422.22 – Chris Morris (for Delhi Daredevils against Rising Pune Supergiant in 2017)
Highest average: 52.16 – Vijay Shankar
Most centuries: 6 – Chris Gayle
Most fifties: 36 – Gautam Gambhir
Fastest hundred (balls faced): 30 – Chris Gayle (for Royal Challengers Bangalore against Pune Warriors in 2013)
Fastest fifty (balls faced): 14 – Lokesh Rahul (for Kings XI Punjab against Delhi Daredevils in 2018)
Read more about the coronavirus
Five personal finance podcasts from The National
To help you get started, tune into these Pocketful of Dirham episodes
·
Balance is essential to happiness, health and wealth
·
What is a portfolio stress test?
·
What are NFTs and why are auction houses interested?
·
How gamers are getting rich by earning cryptocurrencies
·
Should you buy or rent a home in the UAE?
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
Brief scores:
Manchester City 2
Gundogan 27', De Bruyne 85'
Crystal Palace 3
Schlupp 33', Townsend 35', Milivojevic 51' (pen)
Man of the Match: Andros Townsend (Crystal Palace)
The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
Princeton
Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
Zodi%20%26%20Tehu%3A%20Princes%20Of%20The%20Desert
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEric%20Barbier%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYoussef%20Hajdi%2C%20Nadia%20Benzakour%2C%20Yasser%20Drief%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
World Sevens Series standing after Dubai
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. England
4. Fiji
5. Australia
6. Samoa
7. Kenya
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Spain
11. Argentina
12. Canada
13. Wales
14. Uganda
15. United States
16. Russia
Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now
Rafael Nadal's record at the MWTC
2009 Finalist
2010 Champion
Jan 2011 Champion
Dec 2011 Semi-finalist
Dec 2012 Did not play
Dec 2013 Semi-finalist
2015 Semi-finalist
Jan 2016 Champion
Dec 2016 Champion
2017 Did not play
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Ant-Man%20and%20the%20Wasp%3A%20Quantumania
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPeyton%20Reed%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Paul%20Rudd%2C%20Evangeline%20Lilly%2C%20Jonathan%20Majors%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Director: Peyton Reed
Starring: Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Michael Douglas
Three stars
UAE%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Aryan%20Lakra%2C%20Ashwanth%20Valthapa%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20CP%20Rizwaan%2C%20Hazrat%20Billal%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%20and%20Zawar%20Farid.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Imperial%20Island%3A%20A%20History%20of%20Empire%20in%20Modern%20Britain
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Charlotte%20Lydia%20Riley%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Bodley%20Head%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20384%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
