The world economic output is set to exceed the $100 trillion mark for the first time in 2021, two years before the previous forecast, the Centre for Economics and Business Research has said.
The continued economic recovery from the pandemic will drive global economic growth, but the emergence of the Omicron coronavirus variant is a reminder that the pandemic is still a threat, even in highly-vaccinated societies, the London-based research institute said in its World Economic League Table report.
“A year ago, we hoped that the economic effects of the pandemic would wear off relatively quickly. And in one sense they have,” said the CEBR. “We now expect world GDP [gross domestic product] in dollars in 2022 to be higher than we did pre-pandemic and to reach over $100tn for the first time.”
The pace of the recovery is much stronger and there is “substantially more momentum” going into 2022 than the think tank had previously envisaged.
The global economy, which tipped into its deepest recession last year, has bounced back strongly from the pandemic-driven slowdown. The International Monetary Fund expects the world output to expand by 5.9 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2022. CEBR, however, expects global economic growth of 4.2 per cent next year, up from 3.4 per cent it predicted a year ago.
However, the emergence of more virulent Omicron variant of Covid-19 and subsequent pandemic-related restrictions in parts of Europe and elsewhere have raised questions about the pace of economic momentum going forward.
Inflation is another key issue for the global economy going forward. This year has been one of supply constraints and rising inflation, with shortages of commodities, finished goods, shipping space and fossil fuels feeding into inflation in the second half of 2021.
While some of these inflation sources cooled in the last weeks of the year, there are signs that wage inflation is accelerating around the world.
“The key question is whether inflation will largely subside of its own accord, with a modest degree of policy tightening and possibly a medium-sized fall in asset prices (of about 10 per cent to 15 per cent) but little impact on GDP, or whether bringing it down it will require something close to austerity,” CEBR said.
The consultancy expects the push for greener economy and renewable and cleaner energy capacity boost to shrink consumer spending by about $2tn a year on average through 2036, as companies pass on the cost of decarbonising investments to consumers.
“It is probably prudent to conclude that the drive for net zero will at least initially add to consumers’ costs,” the CEBR said. “If we assume that roughly half of the total cost of decarbonising investment is passed on to consumers, this would suggest that real consumer expenditure will be reduced by about $2tn per annum on average over the next 20 years.”
The International Energy Agency estimates that global energy currently stands at about $2tn per year, about 2.5 per cent of global GDP. Under a scenario in which the energy sector achieves net zero emissions, investments need to rise to $5tn, or 4.5 per cent of global GDP, by 2030 and stay there until at least 2050, CEBR said citing IEA data.
In its latest global economy ranking, CEBR predicted that China will overtake the US in 2030 to become the world’s biggest economy in dollar terms, two years later than the forecast in last year's rankings.
A year ago, we hoped that the economic effects of the pandemic would wear off relatively quickly. And in one sense they have
Centre for Economics and Business Research
It expects China's economy to grow 5.7 per cent annually from 2020 to 2025, then by 4.7 per cent per year between 2025 and 2030 and 3.8 per cent annually in the 2030-2035 period.
“These are very similar rates to those in our forecasts last year. But faster growth in the US means that China is now forecast to overtake the US and become the world’s largest economy in 2030 rather than 2028 as we had forecast last year,” the report said. “This is still three years earlier than our pre-pandemic prediction.”
India, which is expected to overtake France next year to occupy sixth position, will become the third-largest economy in 2031. Germany will stay pegged to the fourth spot next year but will lose a place to Japan in 2031 to become the fifth-biggest economy in the world. It will regain the lost place by 2036 to push Japan into fifth place.
Russia is set to become the 10th largest economy by 2036, after Brazil and Indonesia in ninth and eighth spots, respectively, according to the CEBR.
Saudi Arabia will be in the 17th spot, while the UAE will be the world’s 33rd largest economy, a place behind Israel and two places ahead of Iran in 2036, as per the index.
Emiratisation at work
Emiratisation was introduced in the UAE more than 10 years ago
It aims to boost the number of citizens in the workforce particularly in the private sector.
Growing the number of Emiratis in the workplace will help the UAE reduce dependence on overseas workers
The Cabinet in December last year, approved a national fund for Emirati jobseekers and guaranteed citizens working in the private sector a comparable pension
President Sheikh Khalifa has described Emiratisation as “a true measure for success”.
During the UAE’s 48th National Day, Sheikh Khalifa named education, entrepreneurship, Emiratisation and space travel among cornerstones of national development
More than 80 per cent of Emiratis work in the federal or local government as per 2017 statistics
The Emiratisation programme includes the creation of 20,000 new jobs for UAE citizens
UAE citizens will be given priority in managerial positions in the government sphere
The purpose is to raise the contribution of UAE nationals in the job market and create a diverse workforce of citizens
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Honeymoonish
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
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Fifa Club World Cup quarter-final
Esperance de Tunis 0
Al Ain 3 (Ahmed 02’, El Shahat 17’, Al Ahbabi 60’)
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
