The year 2022 will be when the world registers a full, global economic recovery, according to US investment bank JP Morgan
The Covid-19 pandemic will end next year, ushering in a return to the economic and market conditions the world had before the outbreak, the bank said in its “2022 Year Ahead Outlook Report".
The recovery is “warranted by achieving broad population immunity” and “with the help of human ingenuity, such as new therapeutics expected to be broadly available in 2022”, said Marko Kolanovic, JP Morgan’s chief global markets strategist and co-head of global research.
This would result in a strong cyclical recovery, a return of global mobility and a release of pent-up demand from consumers and corporates — particularly inventory, capex and buyback recovery, said Mr Kolanovic.
“We stress that this demand would happen in a backdrop of still-easy monetary policy [zero rates and incrementally smaller but positive quantitative easing].”
The Covid-19 pandemic last year tipped the world economy into its worst decline since the Great Depression, forcing countries into lockdowns that led to higher unemployment and reduced salaries, the International Monetary Fund reported.
In October, the fund lowered its growth forecast for the global economy to 5.9 per cent for 2021 because of a “hobbled” recovery due to the Covid-19 Delta variant, divergence in vaccine campaigns, continuing supply-demand mismatches, rising inflation, high debt levels and financial market volatility.
The global economy contracted 3.3 per cent last year.
The New York-based lender said economies around the globe made great progress towards recovery and reopening in 2021 but the recovery was uneven, incomplete and interrupted by new virus outbreaks and scares.
“In fact, despite vaccines, significant natural immunity and various restrictive measures — the virus took a larger human toll this year than last,” it said.
“Aggressive policy stimulus was a key catalyst of the recovery but has bloated public sector debt and central bank balance sheets.”
JP Morgan remained positive on equities, commodities and emerging markets. Its 2022 price target for the S&P 500 is 5050 points, which represents a smaller percentage appreciation compared to the 2021 forecast.
“However, we do think international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver two to three times higher returns,” said Mr Kolanovic.
“The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq.”
The bank said that as the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that is likely to inject volatility.
Despite the positive market outlook, the bank said there are certain risks investors will need to monitor and manage next year, including increased geopolitical tension in Europe and Asia (in Ukraine and Iran in particular), a looming energy crisis, uncertainties about high inflation and the normalisation of monetary policy.
Political events will also merit investors’ focus, with important US elections in November and several elections in Europe.
The report also found that ransomware attacks have accelerated during the pandemic. A series of cyber attacks in several industries and against critical infrastructure led the estimated cost of cyber crime to increase by more than 50 per cent over the past two years alone, “representing a $1 trillion drag, or roughly the equivalent of 1 per cent of gross domestic product”.
“Cyber-security demand is escalating as the shift to the cloud and digital transformations are motivating companies to adopt zero-trust architectures that treat all users inside or outside the organisation the same to minimise threats,” the report said.
The main pillars of this architecture include robust identity solutions and remote access as well as cloud, data and endpoint security.
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Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
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Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
THE BIO: Mohammed Ashiq Ali
Proudest achievement: “I came to a new country and started this shop”
Favourite TV programme: the news
Favourite place in Dubai: Al Fahidi. “They started the metro in 2009 and I didn’t take it yet.”
Family: six sons in Dubai and a daughter in Faisalabad
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scores:
England: 290 & 346
Sri Lanka: 336 & 243
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Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
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Volvo ES90 Specs
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David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
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if you go
The details
Heard It in a Past Life
Maggie Rogers
(Capital Records)
3/5
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
List of officials:
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
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T20 World Cup Qualifier, Muscat
UAE FIXTURES
Friday February 18: v Ireland
Saturday February 19: v Germany
Monday February 21: v Philippines
Tuesday February 22: semi-finals
Thursday February 24: final
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
'Nope'
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